3 Comments
Nov 14Liked by Neil Paine

Great call out on the Caps, but I have a slightly different take. I rarely mention coaching as a material reason for a team's success - too much mindless and unsubstantiated focus on X's and O's and the vaporous "schemes". However, an exception needs to be made for Spencer Carbery...even though the NHL press continues to only recognize the old retreads playing musical chairs.

Moving on from Peter Laviolette to the untested Carbery was a bit controversial - particularly, after a slow start last year that seemed to be impacting Ovechkin's production. A key learning from this was that Carbery was formerly the coach of the Caps' Hershey Bears farm team and knew the organization and younger players well - and they knew and respected him. Beyond that, Carbery as a rookie HC made several key and difficult moves, including replacing Kuemper with Lindgren as starting goalie and implementing a new system.

By the end of last year and into the Playoffs, the Caps seemed to have gained familiarity and comfort with Carbery's system and that has carried over to this year. The trend toward 2024 success began late last year, even though the overall record was hiding it. Importantly, Ovechkin now seems to be firmly back on track too.

As you note, the 2023 Caps were facing the netherworld of being "OK" but not great. That can quickly crystallize a team to embrace the safety of mediocrity until it gets worse and the need for changes are obvious and less risky for decision-makers. The single greatest factor in sustaining organizational success is making difficult moves that you don't have to make and don't want to make before it's too late.

It's the greatest illusion. You make changes when you are strong, not weak. But nobody wants to trade a mediocre present for a possibly better future. Safer to stay the course and not be accountable.

The Caps took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. The front office and Carbery should be applauded for having the organizational courage to keep making tough changes - including hiring an untested rookie head coach - when it was the riskiest to do.

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Reminds me of the Branch Rickey axiom about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late...

Carbery is definitely looking better now than when they had that minus-37 goal differential last year. And even then, they were at least starting to break in more of the younger players. As you say, I'd rather try to bridge to the next generation than continuing to double and triple down on once-great veterans, with diminishing returns. The Penguins are basically in that purgatory right now, and they are really bad, it seems.

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Absolutely spot on...sometimes it doesn't work of course, but the alternative is almost always worse.

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