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Happy Thursday, as the World Cup picture continues to come into greater focus. On Wednesday’s jam-packed slate (as the final group-stage games got underway), we were treated to Switzerland clinching Group B over Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina making the knockouts, South Africa doing the same after stymieing South Korea, Brazil winning Group C and a spirited Morocco-Haiti battle featuring SIX goals. The Thursday schedule will be as or more dramatic, with a number of elimination games on tap — including one where perhaps neither team winning is best for both (more on that later). But we’ll also take a quick trip to the hockey rink in today’s newsletter, where one team’s sibling reunion is another nation’s ongoing trauma. Here’s a look at everything else going on in sports today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Curaçao (7%) vs. Ivory Coast (84%) - 4 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Ecuador (18%) vs. Germany (67%) - 4 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Tunisia (5%) vs. Netherlands (91%) - 7 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Japan (54%) vs. Sweden (23%) - 7 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Paraguay (38%) Australia (24%) - 10 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Turkey (23%) vs. USA (55%) - 10 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 22% to win
MLB:
⚾ Phillies (63%) at Nationals (37%) - 6:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (60%) at Red Sox (40%) - 7:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Cubs (49%) at Mets (51%) - 7:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 29% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Liberty (84%) at Storm (16%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Aces (67%) at Wings (33%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 30% to win WNBA title
Golf:
⛳ Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands - Cromwell, CT) - Scottie Scheffler 19% to win
Tennis:
🎾 Wimbledon, Qualifying Round 3
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Southbound and down
The Florida Panthers’ trade this week for Brady Tkachuk is a family reunion story on the surface, and admittedly a pretty good one: Brady now gets to play with his brother Matthew; Matthew gets another star winger (and chaos agent) on his line, with an eye on a return to the playoffs for the recent two-time Stanley Cup champions.
(And as if that wasn’t enough, their dad, Keith Tkachuk, was also voted into the Hockey Hall of Fame on Monday. Talk about a whirlwind of a few days!)
But for Canadian hockey fans, the whole thing lands a little differently. This isn’t just about two brothers joining forces on the same team, it’s also the story of a Sun Belt franchise prying away the captain and face of a Canadian team — the Ottawa Senators — in an era where no team from Up North has won the Cup since 1993. From that perspective, this is less “cute family subplot” and more “twisting the knife”.
It’s also part of a long-running pattern where the best Canadian talents happen to find their way time and again to sunny U.S. locales — perhaps most typified by Wayne Gretzky tearfully leaving Edmonton for Los Angeles in 1988, but a trend that accelerated through the ‘90s and early 2000s. While the introduction of a salary cap in 2005 helped alleviate some of the financial pressures faced by Canadian clubs (like a disadvantaged CAD), more recent trends have seen the scales tip back southward with star players seeking lower taxes — hello, Florida — and/or better weather — tropical storms notwithstanding.
Here’s a plot of the cumulative net Adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) transferring year-over-year between Canadian and American NHL teams since 1990, with the Sun Belt specifically highlighted:
Before we even count the Tkachuks’ latest chapter — in addition to their dad moving from Winnipeg to become a star in Phoenix, AZ, and Matthew moving from Calgary to win those Cups in South Florida — the cumulative historical gap is now officially wider again than it was right before the lockout. And with the Panthers installed as early Cup favorites, the latest Tkachuk migration is another reminder that, in the modern NHL, the road to the Cup keeps running south.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Quick on the draw
In most World Cup matches, the better team has the highest chance at the win, with the odds of a draw a more distant possibility. (Welcome to how sports work!) But things change when you get into the type of scoreboard-watching we described in yesterday’s newsletter, where gaming out certain scenarios matters more than playing to actually, you know, win. We may see an example of that tonight with Paraguay vs. Australia, where both teams have 3 points already and would each likely advance if nobody wins — and on Saturday as well, with Algeria and Austria in a similar spot. In both cases, “Tie” is the prediction market favorite to, well, win.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏆 “New York and Raleigh are latest cities to win trophies and move up the Titles Above Expected list” by Stephan Teodosescu
🏈 “What Can World Cup Expansion Tell Us About the CFP?” by Split Zone Duo
🏈 “Scoring NFL QBs on a Dartboard” by Ray Carpenter
⚾ “Cliff Lee Had a Hall of Fame Peak, and a 0.5% Ballot Exit” by me
💰 “Can PE ownership style be successful in sports?” by Nikola Vuković
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (6/26)
⚽ World Cup: Norway vs. France / Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia / New Zealand vs. Belgium / Egypt vs. Iran / Uruguay vs. Spain / Senegal vs. Iraq 🚨
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Red Sox
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Valkyries
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers
Saturday (6/27)
⚽ World Cup: Panama vs. England / Croatia vs. Ghana / Colombia vs. Portugal / Algeria vs. Austria / Jordan vs. Argentina / DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Padres
🏀 WNBA: Sparks at Fever
🥊 Boxing: Xander Zayas vs. Jaron “Boots” Ennis (WBA and WBO junior middleweight titles)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers
Sunday (6/28)
⚽ World Cup: South Africa vs. Canada (Round of 32)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Red Sox
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Valkyries
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship
🏁 NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 (Sonoma Raceway) - Start of NASCAR In-Season Challenge
🏁 F1: Austrian Grand Prix (Austria Red Bull Ring)
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers (main draw begins 6/29)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.