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Happy Monday, and welcome to a brand-new week in sports as we hang onto the last vestiges of July. And what a weekend we are coming off of — starting with an early bang when LeBron James announced his new team literally as we were hitting the “publish” button on this newsletter Friday. Not to worry! We will break down The King’s move to the City That Isn’t as Bad as Philadelphians Say It Is below. We’ll also check in on the state of F1 after a weekend full of racing — which also included Tadej Pogačar’s record-tying fifth Tour de France victory and Corey Heim’s second win (in his 15th career start) in NASCAR. With all of that (plus MLB’s ticking trade-deadline clock) on our mind, here’s what we’re watching for today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Braves (52%) at Mets (48%) - 7:10 p.m. (SNY / MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (58%) at White Sox (42%) - 7:40 p.m. (YES / MLB.tv)
⚾ Cubs (52%) at Cardinals (48%) - 7:45 p.m. (Marquee / MLB.tv)
⚾ Brewers (56%) at Giants (44%) - 9:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 34% to win World Series
⚾ Award spotlight: Jacob Misiorowski 76% to win NL Cy Young after throwing a record 54 pitches of 102+ mph (!) Sunday
WNBA:
🏀 No games. (All-Star break)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 40% to win WNBA title
Soccer:
⚽ Club Friendly: Galatasaray (62%) vs. Venezia (23%) - 2 p.m. (FotMob / Galatasaray TV)
⚽ MLS Championship check-in: Inter Miami 30% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL Championship check-in: Washington Spirit 29% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
King’s ransom? Not so much.
Yours truly happened to be on the scene in Philly Friday, as the city processed (pun both intended and not) the news that LeBron James had picked the 76ers — not the Heat, Cavs, Warriors or anybody else on the list of suitors — in his final “Decision.” And the mood was a mix of disbelief and rampant excitement over the Sixers’ potential to end their 43+ year championship drought.
The markets reacted with a guarded form of that same optimism. After already being buoyed by the Jaylen Brown trade in early July — moving from around 2% title odds for 2027 to 8% or so — the LeBron news saw another spike in Philly’s odds, bringing them up to around 12%:
That still trails San Antonio and Oklahoma City at around 20% apiece for next season, but it does make the Sixers slight Eastern Conference favorites over the Knicks as we look ahead to 2026-27.
Obviously, there are a lot of risks in Philadelphia’s plan to turn those probabilities into certainty next year. As we noted a week ago, James will be 42 next season — Vince Carter was the only player to be even remotely useful at that age in NBA history, and he did it as a role-playing shell of his former star self. By contrast, James will be asked to play a starring role for the Sixers, who also have to solve the problems of sharing the ball between LeBron, Brown, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Joel Embiid — whose own durability is a massive question mark — and prove that they can defend well enough to survive four playoff series.
But easing all of that is the massive discount James is taking salary-wise next season. His new deal is for 2 years and about $8 million total, which means his cap hit for next season is just $4 million — the same as Javonte Green and Svi Mykhailiuk, to name a few examples. That value represents just 2.4% of the 2026-27 NBA salary cap, a massive 33.7 percentage-point decline from the 36.1% share he commanded last season with the Lakers. For context, James had never made less than 10% of the cap previously in his career, and he hadn’t made less than 25% in literally two decades:
Because of this, you can argue that James will be the biggest bargain in NBA history next season. (Certainly, no player as valuable as he’s been over the previous three seasons has ever made so little the following year.) But we’ll have to see if this gambit actually pays off for LeBron and the Sixers, because this is a basketball experiment in every sense of the word.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Hungary games
A strange and unpredictable F1 season just took another twist on Sunday, when defending World Champion Lando Norris of McLaren finally won his first Grand Prix of the 2026 season at Hungary, 11 races into the schedule. Norris is gaining on the Top 4 in the standings with the win, while points leader Kimi Antonelli finished just third Sunday. But Antonelli actually improved his odds to win the title as F1 enters its summer break, because all of his chief rivals — Lewis Hamilton (who received another costly penalty), George Russell and Charles Leclerc — finished off the podium.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “The NFL’s Most Valuable Returners of 2025” by Robbie Marriage
⚾ “Rockies Poised to Set MLB Record with Larry Walker Statue” by Paul Lukas
⚾ “Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox Get Jump on MLB Trade Deadline” by Benjamin Chase
🎓 “How much is a fan worth to your program?” by Matt Brown
🏀 “Can the 76ers Really Win it All?” by Shyam Maddukuri
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (7/28)
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Cardinals
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Storm
⚽ MLS: All-Star Skills Challenge (MLS vs. Liga MX)
Wednesday (7/29)
⚾ MLB: Mariners at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Mercury
⚽ MLS: All-Star Game (MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars)
Thursday (7/30)
⚾ MLB: Nationals at Braves
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Aces
⚽ Club Friendly: Sunderland vs. Leeds United
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: Grêmio vs. Club Bolívar
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: O’Higgins vs. Boca Juniors
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic (Detroit Golf Club - Detroit, MI) - Round 1
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.