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Greetings on this Tuesday in sports, as we’re still coming down from the 39-day sprint that was the World Cup. But as we noted yesterday, there’s no shortage of stuff to keep our interest in the next phase of the summer calendar. Chief among those might be the familiar offseason melodrama of where LeBron James might sign; we’ll dive into that more below. And baseball is offering its own intrigue in the form of the streaking Boston Red Sox, who are going for their 15th straight W this evening. Along with all that, here’s what we’re watching in the sports world today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Dodgers (45%) at Phillies (55%) - 6:40 p.m. (TBS)
⚾ Orioles (43%) at Red Sox (57%) - 7:10 p.m. (MASN/NESN) - BOS going for 15th straight win
⚾ Padres (43%) at Braves (57%) - 7:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 31% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 No games.
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 37% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Heat favored at 45%
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France, Stage 16 (Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains ITT) - Tadej Pogacar 97% to win
Soccer:
⚽ Liga MX: Puebla (13%) at Cruz Azul (73%) - 9:00 p.m. (TUDN)
⚽ Liga MX: Pumas UNAM (20%) at Toluca FC (59%) - 11:00 p.m. (TUDN)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
LeWaiting is LeHardest Part
Now that the World Cup is over, the American sports media shifts its attention back to that familiar summer staple: Waiting for LeBron James to decide which team to sign with.
Technically, James hit the open market in late June, when he told the Lakers they should move on without him because he intended to play a 24th NBA season (!) elsewhere. Since then, though, it’s been all speculation, intrigue, courtship, blurry secretive photos and — most of all — waiting. Lots and lots of waiting.
“We’re not going to be rushed,” said Rich Paul, LeBron’s agent, on a recent episode of the “Game Over” podcast with Max Kellerman. “It’s his choice to make and when he makes the choice, he’ll make it.”
The hoopla around James’ choice recalls his infamous “Decision” in the summer of 2010 more than the comparatively lowkey “homecoming” of his 2014 return to Cleveland. The difference versus either case is that James was still in his prime then, while he is now 41 years old — he’ll turn 42 at midseason — and trying to play at any kind of elevated level at that age (if not simply trying to play at all) is essentially unprecedented in all of NBA history:
But then again, James himself is the definition of unprecedented, as arguably the greatest player ever — I’m more of a Jordan guy myself, but I see the argument — and the most durable inner-circle-level player in any sport maybe ever. Even last season, at age 41, James was at or above the league average in most areas of the game, from scoring to efficiency, playmaking, rebounding and defense:
That explains why a number of NBA teams are still anxious for the chance to employ James — especially at what could end up being a well-below-market price — with a quartet of contenders emerging as the prediction market favorites to sign him:
The equally important question, though, is when LeBron might sign, since — feeling rushed or not — he is kind of holding up the rest of the NBA offseason. Traders at Polymarket think this sequel to The Decision will happen sometime in the next two weeks, most likely this week — an 84% chance by July 27 and 89% by August 3.
But like Rich Paul said… the King won’t be pressured into a hasty pick in what might be his final free-agency hurrah.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Lucky No. 14
As recently as early July, nobody in their right mind would have circled this week’s Red Sox-Orioles series on their calendar as a must-watch. The teams were a combined 19 games under .500 on July 2 — Boston sitting at a dismal 37-48, and Baltimore not faring much better at 40-48. But entering Monday’s series opener, they arrived as the two hottest clubs in baseball, with the Red Sox riding a massive 13-game winning streak and the Orioles carrying a seven-game streak of their own. In a back-and-forth battle that might seriously have been a game-of-the-year candidate, Boston prevailed 6-5 for No. 14 in a row, and tonight they’ll go for a franchise co-record 15th straight win. The markets give the Sox a 57% chance to pull it off and keep their improbable streak rolling.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Baseball Savant’s new player comp tool can help settle (almost) any MLB argument” by Mike Petriello
🏀 “I Hope LeBron Takes Until January” by Andrew Unterberger
⚽ “Success at the World Cup Doesn’t Just Belong to Spain: It’s About Who Exceeded Expectations” by Edward Egros
🏀 “The Game that *actually* won the Knicks an NBA Championship” by Kofie Yeboah
🏀 “The Bill James Theory That Keeps Me Believing in Caitlin Clark” by Ethan Strauss
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (7/22)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: Sun at Fever
⚽ Soccer: Chicago Fire at Inter Miami CF (MLS)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 17 (Chambéry to Voiron)
Thursday (7/23)
⚾ MLB: Padres at Braves
🏀 WNBA: No games. (All-Star break)
⚽ Soccer: Boca Juniors vs. O’Higgins (Copa Sudamericana)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 18
⛳ Golf: 3M Open, Round 1
Friday (7/24)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Phillies
🏀 WNBA All-Star Friday: 3-Point Contest & Skills Challenge
⚽ Soccer: Portland Thorns FC at NJ/NY Gotham FC (NWSL)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 19 (Gap to Alpe d’Huez)
⛳ Golf: 3M Open, Round 2
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.