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Happy Friday! It’s the end of the last World Cup matchweek before the knockouts — so by the time we return to your inbox on Monday, we will know all 16 matchups for the Round of 32 bracket (and in fact, we’ll even have one result in the books, between Canada and South Africa). Before then, though, we need to do a lot of sorting out of the last knockout spots and where everyone fits in on the board, so that means more wall-to-wall soccer today and tomorrow to close out the group stage. Amidst that, we also have plenty of MLB, WNBA, golf — it’s back on the post-U.S. Open grind — combat sports, and auto racing to take in over the weekend:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (6/26)
⚽ World Cup: Norway (20%) vs. France (62%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Senegal (81%) vs. Iraq (8%) - 3 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Uruguay (14%) vs. Spain (62%) - 8 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Cape Verde (36%) vs. Saudi Arabia (36%) - 8 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: New Zealand (7%) vs. Belgium (84%) - 11 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Egypt (41%) vs. Iran (25%) - 11 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
🏆 World Cup odds: France 22% to win
⚾ MLB: Yankees (52%) at Red Sox (48%) - 7:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers (57%) at Padres (43%) - 9:45 p.m. (Apple TV)
🏆 MLB championship check-in: Dodgers 29% to win World Series
🏀 WNBA: Dream (52%) at Valkyries (48%) - 10 p.m. (ION)
🏆 WNBA championship check-in: Lynx 30% to win WNBA title
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship - Round 2 (GOLF/Peacock) - Scottie Scheffler 32% to win
Saturday (6/27)
⚽ World Cup: Panama (6%) vs. England (86%) - 5 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Croatia (56%) vs. Ghana (18%) - 5 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Colombia (24%) vs. Portugal (54%) - 7:30 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: DR Congo (56%) vs. Uzbekistan (23%) - 7:30 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Jordan (6%) vs. Argentina (85%) - 10 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Algeria (24%) vs. Austria (34%) - 10 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨 - Watch for the draw in this one.
⚾ MLB: Cubs (42%) at Brewers (58%) - 7:10 p.m.
⚾ MLB: Dodgers (63%) at Padres (37%) - 8:40 p.m. (MLB Network)
🏀 WNBA: Sparks (22%) at Fever (78%) - 8 p.m. (CBS/Paramount+)
🥊 Boxing: Xander Zayas (26%) vs. Jaron “Boots” Ennis (74%), WBA & WBO Junior Middleweight Titles - 8 p.m. (DAZN)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev (49%) vs. Manuel Torres (51%) - 12 p.m. (Paramount+)
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship - Round 3 (CBS/Paramount+)
Sunday (6/28)
⚽ World Cup: South Africa (28%) vs. Canada (72%), Round of 32 - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚾ MLB: Yankees (50%) at Red Sox (50%) - 7:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
🏀 WNBA: Liberty (49%) at Valkyries (51%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship - Final Round (CBS/Paramount+)
🏁 F1: Austrian Grand Prix - 9 a.m. (ESPN), Kimi Antonelli 32% to win
🏁 NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 (Sonoma Raceway) - 3:30 p.m. (USA Network), Shane Van Gisbergen 58% to win - Start of NASCAR In-Season Challenge
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
The path of least resistance
Team USA concluded its group-play schedule on Thursday night and… wow, that finish was certainly something. 😳 (Kaan Ayhan scored the improbable winner for the Turks in the eighth minute of second-half stoppage time, handing the Americans their first L of the tournament thus far.)
Nonetheless, attention now turns to the main show for this World Cup — the knockout stage of the tournament. And despite some Round of 32 matchups still as yet to be determined, the US knows who it will be playing next: Bosnia and Herzegovina.
How good is Bosnia and Herzegovina? Well, they came into the tournament ranked 60th in the world football Elo ratings, earned what was considered a surprising 1-1 draw with Canada, got blown out 4-1 by Switzerland and beat Qatar 3-1 to finish third in Group B. They advanced with 4 points, despite the minus-1 goal differential, and currently sit 59th in Elo.
No team is an easy win at this phase of the tournament, and the market gives the Americans a 20-25% chance of being eliminated in the Round of 32 (equivalent to Bosnia-Herzegovina pulling the upset to knock them out). Soccer is a low-scoring, often chaotic sport, even though the best teams tend to go deep in the World Cup more often than not. There are no guarantees here.
But it’s fair to say the US is looking at an easier path than most teams who advanced — possibly the easiest path, by the numbers.
For his newsletter Expecting Goals, soccer analyst Michael Caley has a measure that tracks each team’s “path difficulty” to the quarterfinals, relative to an average team in the same group ranking slot. And the American index is +21.5, which means Team USA’s odds to advance to the Round of 8 are nearly 22 percentage points higher than an average team with the same seed, purely on the basis of where they are in the bracket and who they’ll be playing:
Part of that is because Bosnia and Herzegovina is locked in as the US’s opening knockout foe, and part is because their most likely opponent the following round is either the winner of Group G (Egypt or Belgium) or a third-place team from Groups H/I/J — with Cape Verde, Senegal and Algeria currently sitting in those positions, respectively. Belgium is the highest-ranked of that group in Elo (17th), with Senegal 23rd, Algeria 27th and the rest outside of the Top 35. If Egypt wins Group G, it’s entirely possible the US wouldn’t face a team from even close to the top half of the 2026 World Cup field until the Round of 8.
(Interestingly, Canada is second in “path difficulty”, perhaps suggesting beneficial bracket placement for the hosts… except that the third co-host, Mexico, has the worst draw of any knockout team, with quarterfinal odds 10.1 percentage points below expected based on its seed. Go figure.)
The Stars and Stripes still need to go out and win those games, and they showed cracks in their armor on Thursday against a Turkish side with nothing to play for except pride, but also nothing to lose. Mauricio Pochettino has plenty to tighten up, but it helps to also ease one’s way into the knockouts.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Challengers
The second annual edition of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge begins this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. For those unfamiliar, this is stock-car racing’s answer to similar events such as the NBA Cup, with drivers seeded 1-32 and matched up in a bracket — the higher-finishing driver in each matchup “wins” and advances to the next round. After a road course (Sonoma) to open things up, the tournament moves on to a mile-and-a-half oval (Chicagoland), a small superspeedway (Atlanta) and a short track (North Wilkesboro) before concluding at the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick opened as the favorites in the market odds, but — for reasons I explain here — Zane Smith has been shooting up the odds sheet in the past day or so as well.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “MLB Owners Want the Union Playing Checkers While They Play Chess” by me
⚾ “MLB All-Snub Teams” by ritmica
⚾ “National League Aces are Having a Moment” by Sean Beney
🏀 “Dusty May left Michigan for the NBA. That doesn’t mean college basketball is doomed” by Craig Meyer
⛳ “Shinnecock Hills and the Crowd That Came to Boo” by Harriet Thornton
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Monday (6/29)
⚽ World Cup: Brazil vs. Japan / Germany vs. TBD / Netherlands vs. Morocco 🚨
⚾ MLB: Pirates at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: No games.
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 1
Tuesday (6/30)
⚽ World Cup: Ivory Coast vs. TBD / Mexico vs. TBD 🚨
⚾ MLB: Tigers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Aces at Liberty (Commissioner’s Cup Final) 🏆
Wednesday (7/1)
⚽ World Cup: USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina 🚨
⚾ MLB: Cardinals at Braves
🏀 WNBA: No games.
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 2
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.