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Welcome to Wednesday in sports, where the theme is who’s willing to buy in. The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, forcing teams to decide whether their current seasons are worth investing in or not — we’ll break down the odds for who might be on the move, and who ought to push their chips in for a 2026 postseason run… or fold for next year. Meanwhile, American viewers bought into the World Cup like never before, with Sunday’s Final drawing a record-setting audience that is at least beginning to creep up on the Super Bowl. Nothing on today’s slate will challenge those ratings, but here’s what we’re buying into on today’s schedule:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Orioles (42%) at Red Sox (58%) - 1:35 p.m. (MLB.tv) - BOS going for 15th straight win after rainout Tues.
⚾ Dodgers (53%) at Phillies (47%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Padres (47%) at Braves (53%) - 7:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Tigers (48%) at Cubs (52%) - 8:10 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 32% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Lynx (81%) at Storm (19%) - 3:00 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Sun (20%) at Fever (80%) - 8:00 p.m. (USA)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 37% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Heat favored at 52% (rising after the team mistakenly posted the link to a “LeBron James Introductory Press Conference” livestream 😂)
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France, Stage 17 (Chambéry to Voiron) - 7:10 a.m. (Peacock / NBC) - Tadej Pogacar 97% to win
Soccer:
⚽ MLS: Chicago at Inter Miami - 7:30 p.m. (MLS Season Pass/Apple TV)
⚽ MLS: Cincinnati at Vancouver - 7:30 p.m. (MLS Season Pass/Apple TV)
⚽ MLS: LAFC at Real Salt Lake - 10:30 p.m. (MLS Season Pass/Apple TV)
⚽ Championship check-in: Inter Miami 27% to win MLS Cup
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
The deadline push
The 2026 MLB trade deadline is on August 3 this year — particularly late on the calendar, due to scheduling logistics — and that means teams have exactly 13 days (including today) to decide the future fates of their franchises. No pressure!
This year is an especially bizarre one because different teams have looked like contenders (or not) at different points in the schedule. Many teams started the season hot and faded; others came on strong recently, not least of which includes the Boston Red Sox — whose six-week pre-deadline surge represents MLB’s biggest modern jump in winning percentage relative to the rest of their season beforehand.
There will also be some big names potentially on the market. According to the prediction market odds, contact-hitting Giants infielder Luis Arraez is nearly certain to be dealt in the midst of a great bounce-back season, but the big fish is lefty ace Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, who’ll be a free agent after the season and could dramatically swing the playoff race — though the market is basically 50-50 on whether the Tigers will deal him or not.
To help teams decide whether to buy or sell, I have an old-favorite metric from my FiveThirtyEight days called the “Doyle Number” — so named for pitcher Doyle Alexander, who was infamously acquired by the Tigers late in the 1987 season for future Hall of Famer John Smoltz — which uses a team’s current strength and playoff odds, plus its payroll, average roster age and the quality of its farm system, to determine the relative value of a win in talent this season versus in future seasons. Values over 1.00 (generally) mean the present is more valuable than the future, so teams should buy; values below 1.00 mean the future is more valuable, so a team should sell.
Here are the current Doyle Numbers:
Some interesting teams jump out on each side of the Buy/Sell threshold — most notably perhaps the Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, each of whom is tabbed to “sell” here despite hanging around the last playoff spot in the National League.
The advantage of a system like Doyle, though, is that it’s not really about making the playoffs as much as maximizing championship chances in the long run. Teams with few previous expectations, who are barely above .500 and sneak into the playoffs, do not necessarily improve their title odds this season much by loading up at the deadline — so going all-in this year may be throwing good resources after bad. (And, indeed, most years the lists of buyers and sellers track closely with the Doyle math.)
But then again, giving fans hope is fun in and of itself! (Even if it may prove to be false hope.) So we’ll see which teams make moves over the next few weeks, and what it says about how they see themselves in the run up to October.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
America’s surging soccer audience
The World Cup’s TV-viewership numbers are coming in, and they paint a picture of exploding popularity for soccer in the US. Nielsen reported that an average of 66.4 million people watched Sunday’s Spain-Argentina World Cup Final. That’s 42.5 million people watching on Fox’s English-language coverage — making it the most-watched English-language soccer telecast in American history — and 23.9 million watching Spanish-language coverage on Telemundo. When the US missed the 2018 tournament, World Cup Final viewership was just 17% that of the Super Bowl; even in 2022, the France-Argentina final drew just 26% of the Super Bowl’s total. But with the US hosting, this year’s figure is exactly half the Super Bowl’s audience, a stunning change over just a single World Cup cycle.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “The 2026 College Football Fired Coach Draft” by Split Zone Duo
🏈 “A not-so-brief history of the NFL injury report” by Brian Moritz
⚾ “I Watched Hot Dogs Rain From The Sky...and I Thought of Bill Veeck” by Michael Weinreb
🏈 “Before Soldier Field: When the Bears Played at Wrigley” by FootballJo
⚽ “International Football Team Ratings World Cup Audit, Part 1” by Voros McCracken
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (7/23)
⚾ MLB: Padres at Braves
🏀 WNBA: No games. (All-Star break)
⚽ Soccer: Boca Juniors vs. O’Higgins (Copa Sudamericana)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 18
⛳ Golf: 3M Open, Round 1
Friday (7/24)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Phillies
🏀 WNBA All-Star Friday: 3-Point Contest & Skills Challenge
⚽ Soccer: Portland Thorns FC at NJ/NY Gotham FC (NWSL)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 19 (Gap to Alpe d’Huez)
⛳ Golf: 3M Open, Round 2
Saturday (7/25)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: 2026 WNBA All-Star Game
⚽ Soccer: FC Cincinnati at Columbus Crew (MLS)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 20 (Le Bourg d’Oisans to Alpe d’Huez)
⛳ Golf: 3M Open, Round 3
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov
🥊 Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga
🥊 Boxing: Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.