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Happy Friday, and welcome to a sports weekend with something for just about everyone. Formula 1 returns from its monthlong summer break with 19-year-old Kimi Antonelli trying to protect a commanding championship lead over 7-time champ Lewis Hamilton, while defending champ Carlos Alcaraz has officially declared himself fit for the US Open after four months away. We’ll break down the market odds for both races (literal and figurative). At the same time, the Premier League season kicks off with Arsenal beginning its title defense; it’s Players’ Weekend in MLB (enjoy those funny nickname jerseys); Rory McIlroy carries a share of the lead into Round 2 of the BMW Championship; and the inaugural IndyCar race around the streets of Washington, D.C. will try to avoid rattling too many pieces of art at the National Gallery. Amidst all that, here’s what we’re watching this weekend:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (8/21)
⚾ MLB: Braves (43%) at Brewers (57%)* - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv) - 2026 MLB Players’ Weekend
⚾ MLB: Blue Jays (33%) at Yankees (67%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv) - Cam Schlittler taking the hill for NYY
⚾ MLB: Cubs (49%) at Mariners (51%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 32% to win
🏀 WNBA: Lynx (62%) at Mystics (38%) - 7:30 p.m. (ION)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Lynx 47% to win
⚽ EPL: Coventry City (6%) at Arsenal (82%) - 3 p.m. (USA Network) - 2026-27 Premier League Opener! 🎉
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal 47% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 23% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 26% to win
⛳ Golf: BMW Championship, Round 2 - 3 p.m. (Golf Channel / ESPN+) - Rory McIlroy 20% to win
⛳🏆 FedEx Cup Playoffs: Scottie Scheffler 27% to win championship
🎾 Tennis: Cincinnati Open - Men’s quarterfinals: Arthur Fils 36% to win / Women’s quarterfinals: Iga Swiatek 44% to win
🏈 NFL Preseason: Jets (52%) at Steelers (48%) - 7 p.m. (NFL Network)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 17% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas 13% to win national title
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play - 1-7 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
Saturday (8/22)
⚾ MLB: Blue Jays at Yankees - 1:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Brewers - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Mariners - 7:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Fever (54%) at Liberty (46%) - 7 p.m. (Prime Video)
⚽ EPL: Hull City (11%) vs. Manchester United (72%) - 7:30 a.m. (USA Network)
⚽ MLS: Toronto FC (13%) at Inter Miami CF (71%) - 7:30 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⛳ Golf: BMW Championship, Round 3 - 1 p.m. (Golf Channel) / 3 p.m. (CBS)
🏈 NFL Preseason: Chiefs (32%) at Buccaneers (68%) - 7:30 p.m. (NFL Network / Local)
🎾 Tennis: Cincinnati Open, Men’s & Women’s Semifinals - 11 a.m. (Tennis Channel)
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play - 1-7 p.m. (ABC / ESPN) 🚨
🥊 Boxing: Rolando “Rolly” Romero (30%) vs. Teofimo Lopez Jr. (70%) - 8 p.m. (PBC PPV / Prime Video) - WBA Welterweight World Title 🏆
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez (63%) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (37%) - 8 p.m. (Paramount+)
Sunday (8/23)
⚾ MLB: Giants at Red Sox - 3:15 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Mariners - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Brewers - 7:10 p.m. (ESPN) - Sunday Night Baseball flagship
🏀 WNBA: Fever (75%) at Sky (25%) - 7 p.m. (NBC)
⚽ EPL: Liverpool (52%) at Newcastle United (27%) - 11:30 a.m. (USA Network / Peacock)
⛳ Golf: BMW Championship, Final Round - 12 p.m. (Golf Channel) / 2 p.m. (CBS) - Leg 2 playoff champion crowned 🚨
🏈 NFL Preseason: Seahawks (36%) at Titans (64%) - 8 p.m. (FOX)
🏁 F1: Dutch Grand Prix - 9 a.m. (ESPN) - Kimi Antonelli 31% to win
🏁 NASCAR: Dollar Tree 301 (New Hampshire Motor Speedway) - 3 p.m. (USA Network) - Ryan Blaney 20% to win
🏁🏛️ IndyCar: Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, D.C. - 12 p.m. (FOX) - Alex Palou 35% to win - Inaugural race on the National Mall!
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Summer vacation’s over
When last we saw Formula 1, defending champion Lando Norris was driving to victory at the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26. Then the sport went on its annual summer break, a monthlong hiatus designed to give drivers and teams a midseason reset. That’s all over now, though — the teams are back on the track this weekend in Zandvoort for the Dutch Grand Prix, revving up a stretch of 12 races in the next 15 weeks to decide the 2026 championship.
And the title fight that follows will cap off one of the weirdest and possibly most transformational seasons in the sport’s history.
We knew beforehand that the sweeping changes to technical regulations introduced this past offseason would have profound effects on F1 going forward. Prediction-market traders suspected, for instance, that Norris and his defending-constructor’s-champion team at McLaren would likely see less success under the new paradigm, while Mercedes was tabbed as the new favorite. That part proved prescient; Mercedes indeed leads the World Constructors’ Championship standings, with the market giving them a heavy 82% chance to win over Ferrari at 14%:
What wasn’t necessarily as easily predicted is who would be leading the charge for Mercedes. Before the season, it was assumed that George Russell — the 28-year-old who’s been driving for the team in some capacity since 2017 (and full-time since 2022) — would inherit the mantle of title favorite as the No. 1 driver for the top team. A win from the pole at Australia in the season opener did little to dispel that notion, either.
But then, Russell slipped to second behind young teammate Kimi Antonelli the next week at Shanghai, and he has only three podium finishes (a win at Austria and two runner-ups at Barcelona and his home race at Silverstone) over the following nine races. Russell currently sits third in the championship standings, 59 points out of first place, with just a 7% chance to win the title according to the prediction markets.
Instead, the runaway points leader and title favorite is the Italian 19-year-old, Antonelli — who won five straight races starting in China, and comes out of the break with podiums in three of his past four races as well, after a few shaky performances at midseason. In just his second season as an F1 driver, Antonelli took command of the top spot in the standings after Round 3 at Japan and hasn’t relinquished it since. The market thinks the only real threat to Antonelli (in terms of rivals with double-digit title odds) might be Lewis Hamilton, the 41-year-old former seven-time F1 champion who has found a second wind with Ferrari this season.
But Hamilton must make up 50 points on his much younger foe in the next 12 races just to draw even with Antonelli, who otherwise would become the youngest champion in F1 history at age 20 (and 103 days) at season’s end — obliterating the old records for youngest champ held by Sebastian Vettel (who was 23 years and 134 days old in 2010) and… you guessed it, Lewis Hamilton (23 years, 300 days in 2008).
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Open season
“Here we go,” said the Instagram post — using the catchphrase from soccer transfer-guru Fabrizio Romano, on his account — and with that, Carlos Alcaraz was back to defend his men’s title at the US Open, which starts this week at Flushing Meadows in Queens. Alcaraz hadn’t played since April with a wrist injury, casting doubt on whether he could return in time to play the sport’s premier hard-court event. (Before the announcement, traders only gave him around a 60-65% chance to come back.) But the news has already had a big effect on the Open’s market odds — world No. 1 Jannik Sinner dropped from a commanding 60% favorite when it seemed his rival was out, to a more modest 35% mark (versus 26% for Alcaraz) now that both are on a collision course in the field.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚽ “What ‘Ted Lasso’ gets right about the lack of resources allocated to women’s soccer” by Asli Pelit
⚾ “His Name Is Tugboat. He Throws an ‘Invisiball.’ And Now He’s a Major-Leaguer.” by Jared Diamond
🏈 “Can Kentucky football become the next Indiana?” by Craig Meyer
🏁 “Getting an IndyCar race in downtown Washington, D.C. took many complicated turns” by Adam Kilgore
🏁 “What a gap year means for Connor Zilisch and Hendrick Motorsports” by Nate Ryan
⚾ “We Still Don’t Really Understand Value. Or Do We?” by ritmica
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Monday (8/24)
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Diamondbacks
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Lynx
⚽ Premier League: Chelsea at Fulham - West London derby
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play 🚨
🎾 US Open: Qualifying Round 1
Tuesday (8/25)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Braves
🏀 WNBA: Mystics at Mercury
⚽ Champions League Play-offs: LASK vs. Celtic - Second leg 🚨
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play 🚨
🎾 US Open: Qualifying Round 2
Wednesday (8/26)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Braves
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Sun
⚽ NWSL: Angel City FC at North Carolina Courage
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play 🚨
🎾 US Open: Qualifying Round 3
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.