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Greetings on this post-Olympics Monday in sports. It’s always a bit melancholy after the Olympic closing ceremony, saying goodbye to an event that became a huge part of your sports-watching routine every day for nearly three weeks. But what a finale to the 2026 Olympics: the US men’s hockey team defeated its archrival, Canada, in overtime on Sunday for its first gold medal since the 1980 Miracle on Ice team, and the final few additional medals were also secured (including Team Sweden defeating Team Switzerland for the women’s curling gold) before the final medal table was wrapped up. We’ll have more below on the winners (and losers) of the Olympics, but we also must look ahead to the rest of the sports calendar — starting with what’s on tap tonight:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
NBA:
🏀 Spurs (48%) at Pistons (52%)* - 7 p.m.
🏀 Jazz (13%) at Rockets (87%) - 9:30 p.m.
College Hoops:
🏀 Louisville (58%) at UNC (42%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Houston (56%) at Kansas (44%) - 9 p.m.
Soccer:
⚽ Everton (25%) vs. Manchester United (52%) - 3 p.m.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Olympic aftermath
As mentioned above, the end of the Olympics is a bittersweet occasion, where we say goodbye to the athletes and stories we celebrated during the Games — such as the inspiration of US figure skater Alysa Liu or the dominance of Norwegian cross-country skier Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (who became the winningest gold medalist at a single Winter Olympics and the most decorated gold medalist ever in his Winter Games career) — while also taking stock of how each country did along the way.
For the fourth consecutive Winter Olympics, Norway recorded the most medals at the Games, compiling 18 golds, 12 silvers, and 11 bronzes for 41 total medals, eight clear of the United States at 33. As usual, the Norwegians’ success was driven by their disproportionate success in two disciplines — cross-country skiing and the biathlon, which made up 10 golds and 25 total medals — with some additional excellence in ski jumping and Nordic combined thrown in as well. Interestingly, they were not as good as usual at speed skating, ranking just fourth with four total medals (and one gold, won by Sander Eitrem in the 5,000 meters), but it didn’t cost them overall.
Here’s how their medal points at Milan Cortina broke down versus what we’d expect from their long-term historical averages in each sport:
Nos. 3 and 5 on the medal list were Italy and Japan, and they were also the two biggest overachievers at the Games relative to their long-term expected rates of success. We wrote a bit last week about how Italy got the usual host nation boost this year (and then some), while Japan showed off its newfound prowess in figure skating and snowboarding. Here’s where they beat expectations the most, by sport:
At the other end of the spectrum, Canada, Finland, Germany, and the United States were the most underwhelming of the 2026 Winter Olympic nations relative to historical trends, despite the latter two actually finishing fourth and second, respectively, in the final medal count. Here’s a breakdown of each country’s top 5 sports for “expected” medal points, and how they actually did in reality versus those expectations in each sport:
While hockey was the defeat that stung the most for Canada (see below), it was actually freestyle skiing and snowboarding where it most undershot medal expectations, while Finland was undone by cross-country skiing and ski jumping, Germany lost ground in the biathlon (hugely!) and speed skating, and the US dipped mainly in snowboarding with some speed skating tossed in as well — despite the star-making turn of Jordan Stolz.
All we can do now is wait four years to see how each of these countries do — for better or worse — at the 2030 Winter Olympics in the French Alps. And we don’t know about you, but we can’t wait for it!
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
How the US got its hockey gold
Even if the US fell short of its usual standards in a few sports these Winter Games, the medal table will only slightly reflect the title that was most important to the Americans at Milan: the golds they won in men’s and women’s hockey (over Canada in both cases). The men’s final was a particularly tense affair, and it’s fair to say Canada outplayed the US across the game as a whole, even as Team USA got the better of things in three-on-three overtime (a format Canadian coach Jon Cooper rightly criticized after the loss). But given the longstanding rivalry between these two teams, how could the game have ended any other way than on a golden goal in OT? Here’s how the prediction markets saw the gold medal contest playing out through the lens of win probability:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “This team plays defense like NOBODY else” by Jordan Sperber
🏈 “A way-too-early projection of the 2026 NFL season” by Neil Greenberg
🏀 “We’re living in a WAB world” Brandon Vogel
🏀 “Are the WNBA’s 9-Figure Losses What They Seem?” by Annie Costabile
🏅 “The Countries That Fell Short at the Winter Olympic Games” by Jadrian Wooten
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (2/24)
🏀 NBA: Knicks at Cavs
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Blazers
⚽ Champions League: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos
Wednesday (2/25)
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Nuggets
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Lightning (Welcome back, NHL!)
🏒 NHL: Golden Knights at Kings
🏀 MBB: St. John’s at UConn
🏀 WBB: Michigan at Ohio State
⚽ Champions League: Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund
Thursday (2/26)
🏀 NBA: Rockets at Magic
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Clippers
🏒 NHL: Flyers at Rangers
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Kings
🏀 MBB: Michigan State at Purdue
🏀 WBB: Georgia at Texas
🏀 WBB: Alabama at Vandy
🏀 WBB: Tennessee at LSU
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.