When Will Alex Ovechkin Break Wayne Gretzky's NHL Goals Record?

Our new Ovi Tracker projects his path to 894+ career goals.

(Credit: Getty Images)

Wayne Gretzky’s 894 career goals is a record that was once thought unbreakable. When Alexander Ovechkin made his NHL debut on October 5, 2005, no active player was even within 150 goals of the Great One. The 1980s were such an alien time in hockey — and were immediately followed by the Dead Puck Era — that most fans and observers just assumed nobody would ever come along and seriously challenge Gretzky.

But Alex Ovechkin had different ideas. The Great Eight broke the 50-goal barrier in his rookie season at age 20, and was off to the record races. In recent years, it became clear that his ageless production would at least give him a shot at the record, and another outstanding season in 2024-25 has officially put the hockey world on record watch.

So I thought it would be useful to keep a running projection (in the sprit of this Caitlin Clark record tracker) of how likely Ovi is to tie/break Gretzky’s record, and when the day might be if it does happen. For more about how it works, click here. But read on if all you want are the results!

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Will Ovechkin break the record?