15 Fresh Takes: The NBA Finals ... Going Forward
NBA Substack on Game 1, and what it means for the series
We asked 15 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What does Game 1 tell us about the Finals going forward?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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That I underestimated just how comfortable Kristaps Porziņģis is in Boston. No grandiose conclusions about the series after just one game — we don't do that here — but I can't say enough about Porziņģis' performance. No game action for 38 days? Only the second time in his career coming off the bench? In his first-ever playoff game beyond the first round? And leaving Kyrie Irving in the dust in the race to record the first true Revenge Game in these Finals? Getting traded to this Boston team is the best basketball thing that has ever happened to Porziņģis.
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There are two obvious takeaways from Game 1 of the Finals.
The first is that Kristaps Porziņģis looks fantastic coming off of his calf injury recovery. Not only did he hit 3s, but his rim protection was a game-changer for a team known more for its perimeter defense, and he was able to operate in isolation against mismatches for several possessions. All very good signs.
The second is that Boston's defense seems well-equipped to prevent The Other Mavericks from getting anything going. Playing the stars 1-on-1 means fewer easy looks for the bigs rolling and the wings spotting up. Can the Mavs solve that problem?
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The Boston Celtics only need to stay hot for three more games. You can disagree about the long-term strategy of launching the most volatile shot in the game, the 3-pointer, as much as the Celtics do. The thing is, there's no long-term anymore. They just need, well, three more. The Celtics were on fire in Game 1, making 16 3-pointers and flinging up more 3s than 2s. Kristaps Porziņģis looked awesome — especially from beyond the arc. They're not going to change strategy now and that's probably a good thing.
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I'm going to be extremely pedantic and say that Game 1 tells us that the Celtics are up 1-0. In a playoff series, each game is often a series unto itself. Things that happen in one game don't necessarily carry over to the next, let alone the rest of the series. There are tactical adjustments that need to be made on both sides, of course, and many of them will come as a reaction to what happened in the first game.
But a blowout win is still worth just one win in a series that requires four. There's a long way to go.
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Eventually, having the most good players matters. Boston is so good at reminding opponents that it has an unlimited supply of difference-makers, and it’s always so smug, like, You’re sick of us? Here’s Derrick White! Or think you’ve got us pinned? Well, Jaylen Brown can become an elite defender whenever he wants.
The Celtics are the world’s best magician who has so many tricks that he forgets the dove is in his hat but still somehow pulls off the trick flawlessly.
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What I saw last night is what I expected: a dominant Boston win. But I was among the few with that forecast. The weirdest thing about these NBA playoffs is the drumbeat of anti-Celtics energy from sports experts. Yes, I’m a sensitive longtime Celtics fan, but even taking a step back, the national commentary feels at odds with stats, Boston’s record, and just … reality.
I was saying Celtics in five. Now I’m thinking: Celtics in four. They’re going to sweep Dallas, and shut everyone up.
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More than any recent Finals, this series feels more like a 1v1 between GMs than a juicy 30 for 30 documentary.
Give me the Reality Von Tease reveal on Real Housewives of Salt Lake City level of drama!
It’s not a sexy subject for the media’s Hot Take Olympics.
We had nine days of “Is Tatum good?” and “Nevermind! Ant’s not MJ, Luka is!”
The story here is just boring roster construction and we need better producers …
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To me, Game 1 suggests the talent gap many of us thought was there may in fact be real. I never felt as if the Celtics were seriously exerting themselves in this game, and apart from one brief stretch in the third, it was never close. Kyrie was visibly bothered by the Celtics’ guards on the ball, and neither he nor Luka managed to get anyone else involved. Dallas entered the fourth quarter (down 20) with five total assists. Five! As a team! That’s not gonna cut it. Boston shouldn’t get cocky, but this is about as encouraging a start as Joe Mazzulla and the boys could’ve asked for.
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The Celtics were ready for the moment — one that’s been years in the making — and the Mavericks were not. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have been battling for years for this, Derrick White had a taste the last two seasons, and Jrue Holiday wants to probe that Milwaukee made a big mistake.
The big doubt was Porziņģis, right? Well, our questions were answered in that first half. The Mavs have to play perfect basketball to match what we saw in Game 1.
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It appears that Dallas does not, in fact, want Boston.
From the very first play of the game we saw just how rabid Boston's fans were. Screaming, heckling, and licking one's metaphorical (and sometimes physical) chops was the norm; Dallas couldn't quite break through. Case in point, the Celtics had no player score 25+ points and still won by 18.
This series will be decided by whether or not Dallas can snatch a win in TD Garden. Without it (and a resurgent Kyrie Irving), their efforts will be futile.
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In many ways, it told us what we all should have known: This Boston team with Porziņģis is an elite group. The dimensionality he provides on both ends of the floor makes them a matchup nightmare. Offensively, he negates Dallas’s efforts to use offset defensive matchups to hide Luka. Defensively, his rim protection completely eliminated the vertical lob threat that had become the Mavs' bread and butter. His health decides this series.
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Game 1 tells us that Boston is going to live by the 3. The Celtics made seven 3s in the first quarter and 11 in the first half as they were building their huge lead, at one point taking two 3-pointers for every 2-pointer they tried. (They had three or four attempted 3s on one memorable possession during the first half.)
We know this is the Celtics' M.O., as they lead all teams in the playoffs with 48% of their shots coming from downtown, and when it works, they showed they can have Dallas against the ropes quickly. But, as is also their M.O., the Celtics will go cold at times and miss a lot of those 3s, which can let a team back into a lopsided game — as happened in the third quarter of Game 1 for a bit.
Boston is going to do this all series long, because that's who they are as a team, and it's up to the Mavs to do a better job weathering the onslaught and taking advantage of the cold streaks.
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Boston primarily used a defensive switching scheme 1-4 and trusted its individual defense on Luka, who took the bait and concentrated on isolation play. The result? Nine assists as a team, with the lowest assist rate for a team in the playoffs since the NBA-ABA merger, and only three corner 3-pointers attempted. Joe Mazzulla was able to keep the blitz option up his sleeve for future games, and that's something to keep an eye on for the rest of the series.
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The Mavericks will play a lot better in Game 2. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will be better. The scary thing for the Mavs? The Celtics should play better too. Boston had too many unforced turnovers and they missed six free throws. Mostly, this series is a 3-point shooting math test. Boston throws a lot of problems at you, and Dallas doesn’t have the answer key.
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Game 1 showed that shot-release speed matters greatly in highly competitive games.
In earlier series, when the stakes weren't quite as high and defenses not as intense, Dallas' shooters had enough time to comfortably get their shots off. Against Boston, though, Dallas' wings struggled from 3, as none of them are particularly quick-release shooters.
Boston, having lost the 2022 Finals to a Warriors team with quick-release shooters, seems to have learned its lesson and is playing several players whose release is so fast, they get decent looks even against a Dallas defense full of long and athletic wing defenders.