Winning the ALCS Opener Made the Texas Rangers World Series Co-Favorites

A near-flawless Game 1 shutout of the Astros in changed the playoff odds, setting the Rangers' chances even with the Phillies.

The oddsmakers weren’t sold on the Texas Rangers before Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. They had to prove that they could score runs against Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander — one of the best postseason pitchers ever — tame an Astros lineup full of scary sluggers, and handle a park where opponents were just 16-30 in the playoffs over the past seven years. They also needed to show that Houston’s regular season performance against Texas, capped off by a lopsided sweep in September, was not indicative of the true gap between the teams.

All the Rangers did was answer every question in front of them — and their 2-0 victory has major implications for the rest of the series and the postseason at large.

Offensively, Texas scratched out an early run against Verlander when standout rookie Evan Carter doubled and Jonah Heim sent him home on a single in the second inning. The Rangers added another in the fifth from an unlikely source: No. 9 hitter Leody Taveras, who struggled heavily at the plate in the second half of the season, but was able to launch a Verlander slider into the stands in right-center for a 2-0 lead.

From there, it was all about the Rangers’ pitching and defense. Starter Jordan Montgomery continued to be Texas’ most important in-season acquisition, tossing 6 ⅓ shutout innings while striking out six Astros and allowing just five hits. Montgomery’s Game Score — a measure of pitching performance that judges all aspects of a starter’s performance in a single game — was 68, tied for the 10th-best by any starter against the Astros in a postseason game since their streak of consecutive ALCS appearances began in 2017.

Overall, the Rangers’ Game 1 pitchers — a group that also included Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc — posted a 0.78 WHIP against Houston, which was also tied for the 10th-best in any postseason game versus the Astros since 2017. Amazingly, it was just the sixth time the Astros had been shut out in the playoffs during the span.

Those pitchers did have help. One of the most important plays of the game belonged to Carter — because who else would it be for the Rangers this postseason? — when he sprinted back on Alex Bregman’s fly ball to the depths of Minute Maid Park’s center field, making a spectacular catch at the wall, then threw the ball back in time to get a retreating Jose Altuve out after he missed second base on his way back. (Altuve’s mistake was caught via replay review.)

An optimist from the Astros’ side might say it took a nearly flawless performance from Texas to take Game 1 from its division rivals. But the Rangers did take it — along with home-field advantage for the rest of the series, and a newfound status as co-World Series favorites. According to FanDuel, the Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies are tied with a 31% implied probability of winning the championship. If the opener was any indication, this could end up being a classic series; for now, the Rangers have silenced any questions about whether they belong on the postseason stage.

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Filed under: Baseball

Original story: Winning the ALCS Opener Made the Texas Rangers World Series Co-Favorites