Will Julio Rodríguez Use His Record-Breaking HR Derby as a Launching Pad?
After an underrated first half, the Mariners star seems poised to turn his — and his team's — season around.
As is often the case, some of the most indelible performances from Monday’s Home Run Derby belonged to players who didn’t actually win the competition. Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena hit 82 total dingers — the most of the 2023 Derby and the second-most ever in a single contest — but eventually lost the final to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. And even that performance was overshadowed in some part by the heroics of hometown Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodríguez, who launched a single-round record 41 bombs in his opening matchup against Pete Alonso of the New York Mets.
With Rodríguez mashing homer after homer, all while barking instructions about ball placement at his friend and pitcher Franmy Peña, the Seattle crowd was whipped into a frenzy. According to Statcast data, the cumulative distance traveled by Rodríguez’s 41 first-round HRs added up to 3.14 total miles. Add in the 20 HRs from his second-round loss to Guerrero, and J-Rod blasted 4.65 miles worth of homers in the Derby — enough distance to travel from T-Mobile Park to the Space Needle and back with room to spare.
One of the recurring talking points on ESPN’s Home Run Derby broadcast was that Rodríguez’s spectacular exhibition might be just what he needs to turn around a slumping season. And it is true that Rodríguez, 22, hasn’t quite repeated the impressive topline stats of his rookie breakout. His home run pace per 162 team games has dipped to 24 (he had 28 homers last season despite missing 30 games), while his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are all down. His OPS has gone from being 46 percent better than that of an average hitter to just 3 percent better.
By that comparison, it would be fair to wonder what it will take for J-Rod to pick up the pace and reclaim his 2022 form. Maybe all of this week’s dingers will serve as that spark — never mind the fact that, most of the time, superstition dictates players should worry a great Derby might hurt their swing. (Don’t worry, Julio: that’s a myth anyway.)
But if we look beyond the basic numbers, we see that Rodríguez’s slump has been overstated as well. Sure, his offensive numbers are down, but he’s still producing positive value at the plate. And his durability, defense and baserunning are highly underrated pieces of his profile as a complete — and still quite valuable — player overall. Rodríguez currently ranks eighth among MLB position players in baserunning runs added (he’s on pace for +7.1 per 162 team games), 13th in runs added above replacement through playing time (+23.6) and 10th among full-time outfielders in total defensive value (+8.4).
Add up all of the non-batting categories that contribute to Wins Above Replacement, and Rodríguez ranks ninth in MLB, on pace to add 39.1 runs (or roughly four wins) on the basis of everything he does well aside from swinging the bat:
As a result, Rodríguez is on pace to finish 2023 with a very good mark of 4.5 WAR by season’s end — just 1.4 fewer than he had last season, and the third-most of any player his age or younger this season. (Only Wander Franco of the Rays and Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks are on track for more WAR than Rodríguez.)
We shouldn’t expect opposing pitchers to keep a lid on Rodríguez at the plate for very long, either. In spite of those sophomore-slump results so far, Statcast shows that Rodríguez actually is hitting for a better average exit velocity (92.8 mph versus 92.0) and a better rate of hard-hit balls (50.8 percent versus 50.7) in 2023 than he had in 2022. His launch angle has dropped a few degrees since last year, leading to fewer fly balls — and therefore, fewer HRs — plus he’s pulling the ball less, which might be reducing his raw power. But the underlying numbers were pointing to a second-half return to form for Rodríguez regardless of how he did at the Derby on Monday night.
And if that does end up happening, look out. Rodríguez is so good at so many things that he can have a run-of-the-mill first half at the plate and still rank as one of baseball’s brightest young players. Now that he’s shown off for the home crowd and broken an impressive Home Run Derby record, we might be due to see the full force of Rodríguez’s talents in the second half.
Filed under: Baseball
Original story: Will Julio Rodríguez Use His Record-Breaking HR Derby as a Launching Pad?