Why the Houston Rockets’ Bold Team-Building Experiment Is Working
Is this what teams should do when they decide to stop tanking?
(co-byline: Michael Charles / The Messenger)
Heading into the 2023-24 season, the Houston Rockets were at a crossroads.
The team had spent the previous few years — basically, since James Harden got himself traded out of town in January 2021 — making itself synonymous with unserious basketball, posting the NBA’s losingest record and its worst point differential while trotting out one of the youngest lineups in the league. But Houston also seemed to seek a shortcut to legitimacy this past summer, signing experienced competitors Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and hiring former NBA Finals coach Ime Udoka.
Normally, such a quick-fix approach shouldn’t work. But as ambitious as their plan seemed, the Rockets have nonetheless been one of the NBA’s biggest surprise teams in the early stage of the season. And if Houston’s resurgence holds up, it might provide a blueprint for other tanking teams as they transition to playing competent basketball again.
That’s getting ahead of ourselves, though. As of now, we’ve seldom seen any team even try a version of what Houston is doing this season. Looking at every roster since the 1976 ABA merger, the 2023-24 Rockets are currently on pace for the fourth-largest year-over-year leap in average age (weighted by minutes played) during that span, trailing only the 2007-08 Boston Celtics, 2012-13 New York Knicks and 2003-04 Golden State Warriors:
Among that group, the 2022-23 Rockets — with an average age of 22.1 — were by far the youngest before adding their influx of veterans. (Only five teams in total since the merger have been as young as those Rockets were anyway.) And while it may have been easy to predict improvement for some of the other teams on the list, such as the ‘08 champion Celtics after picking up legends Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, we can politely say that Brooks and VanVleet are no KG and Jesus Shuttlesworth.
Instead, a lot of the Rockets’ improvement comes down to three factors: Udoka’s defensive coaching, the steadying influence of the team’s new veterans and the young players starting to figure out the ways of real NBA basketball. Let’s run through each, to give credit where it’s due.
Praising Udoka’s ability to build team “culture” is reductive; the truth is messy and complicated. His exit from the Celtics was well-documented and chaotic, stemming from accusations of an improper relationship with a staff member.
But Udoka can coach, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. As a rookie head coach with Boston in 2021-22, his knack for combining basketball X’s and O’s with the grit and relatability needed to connect with modern players made his lone season there an impressive one. Those Celtics ranked second in net rating, powered in large part by the league’s second-best defense (and Boston’s best D in a decade).
Before that, Udoka was associated with top-10 defensive units seven times in nine years as an NBA assistant coach, including a pair of top-ranked defenses with the San Antonio Spurs (for whom he also played). That long track record of success has carried over to Houston this season, too, as the Rockets have the league’s second-best defense so far — ranking second in lowest Effective FG% and third in True Shooting % allowed, eighth in defensive rebounding rate and 16th in the rate of turnovers forced.
All of those rankings are up dramatically from last season when Houston sat second-to-last on defense, a huge testament to Udoka’s coaching skill. And in fact, he’s already begun to mold the Rockets’ D in the image of the 2021-22 Celtics: Houston’s far higher rate of forcing midrange jumpers and denying corner 3-pointers is very reminiscent of the defense Udoka led in the past.
None of that would be possible, of course, without the right players to execute his scheme — which is where VanVleet and Brooks come into the picture.
VanVleet signed the largest deal ever for an undrafted player after spending the first seven years of his career in Toronto and immediately brought stability as a floor general for Houston. The Rockets averaged the second-most turnovers per game last season with 16.2 — now they are averaging the third-fewest, sitting at 12.7 in part because of VanVleet’s veteran presence. Houston’s offense has also produced better quality shots since his arrival, with their effective field goal percentage being 4.3% higher when VanVleet is on the floor, which ranks in the 86th percentile.
Brooks has been another stabilizing piece. The 27-year-old was buried in criticism after a distraction-filled playoff run with the Grizzlies, but his value was on full display at the FIBA World Cup as Canada won the bronze medal, and he has parlayed this into a strong start to his Rockets’ tenure as well. Averaging 13.4 points per game while shooting an impressive 46.4% from deep (on four attempts per game), Brooks is on pace for far and away the most efficient year of his career. Despite his defense underwhelming so far (+2.5 points per possession), Houston is 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor overall.
These veterans have changed the dynamic of the team, quickly becoming extensions of their coach on the floor.
"It's him and Fred. Fred doesn't always get the credit as well. But he’s a smart, high IQ and tough defender. Dillon is obviously much more demonstrative and physical with it. But we want that mindset on our team,” Udoka said after the Rockets' recent close loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. “I think him doing that night in and night out rubs off on everybody. I’m going to push guys to be that, but it’s always helpful to have players doing that on the court as well."
Just as important has been the continued development of the team’s younger players, most notably 21-year-old center Alperen Şengün. Şengün’s individual stat line is impressive: 20.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game while shooting 56.7 percent from the field. Moreover, he continues to display an elite combination of skill and feel for the game, giving Houston a massive boost while on the floor. As a sophomore last year, Houston was 5.5 points per 100 possessions better with Şengün in the game; that number has jumped to +11.5 in this, his third season.
Şengün’s emergence has somewhat masked the struggles of Jalen Green, who is averaging 19.6 points per game on slightly improved but still poor efficiency. However, it’s too early to bury the 21-year-old; even while adjusting to a new starting lineup under a new coach, the Rockets are better with Green on the court than off for the first time ever. And while Tari Eason missed several games with a leg injury to open the season, he has continued to be an impactful player for Houston and should earn more minutes. The 22-year-old has stood out on defense, with the Rockets allowing 17.9 fewer points per 100 possessions in his 115 minutes of game time on the young season, placing him in the 100th percentile.
Even amidst the early season struggles of Green and second-year forward Jabari Smith Jr., the Rockets are fifth in the league with a net rating of +5.5 — far better than their 28th-ranked -7.9 mark a year ago.
Going into the season, Udoka had vowed his new team would no longer blame losses on inexperience. “One of my first messages will be, 'Youth is not an excuse,'” he said at his introductory press conference. “Whether it's making the same mistakes, not making the right defensive assignments, poor shot selection, all that stuff has to be addressed but also improved on. I love the youth, athleticism, upside, potential, all those things, but now we have to take the next step and grow as players.”
That next step seems to have arrived earlier than anyone expected — anyone outside of the Rockets organization, that is. But as radical as it is to transform overnight from the league’s youngest and most fundamentally unsound team to one anchored by veterans with designs on the playoffs, this might simply be a glimpse of the future. Tanking is still prevalent in the NBA, and those teams need a roadmap for the phase after the rampant losing, particularly when the players they drafted are still developing and the professionalism of their environment can make a big difference in how they pan out.
So while it may have seemed strange when a perennial 60-loss team signed glue guys that would normally join contenders, Udoka and the Rockets used it to achieve that professionalism. (Even the losses are competitive; four of Houston’s six defeats have been by six points or less, and only one — on opening night — was truly a blowout.) It’s still a bit early to talk seriously about this team making the postseason or even finishing .500, but the first step of Houston’s rebuild was merely to establish the basics again and let the rest take care of itself.
Filed under: NBA