12 Comments

I made a huge mistake… Oh well, I shouldn't have gone the upset direction in my bracket at all. (I picked James Madison to win it all… James Madison! Out of all teams! I'm crazy!)

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author

I take no responsibility for this, LOL

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Yk what? I have a great idea. I'm gonna do what I did last year. Pick every single higher seed to win the matchup.

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Fr! In fact, even though most of my friends were teasing me about my stupid pick, I never realized it was so stupid until I read this, lol.

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Mar 21Liked by Neil Paine

Awesome! Thanks for publishing this with no paywall. Will you be updating this as each round unfolds? Would also love to see the code - I publish Monte Carlo simulations for chess tournaments at Pawnalyze and would love to see your approach.

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author

I should be able to at least run an update coming out of the weekend using the latest KenPom numbers. For more real-time updates, I *think* ESPN has something, but not sure where that lives.

This is such bad programming but I just did it using an Excel macro. It's a tradition of mine to frantically mark down all the teams during the selection show in an Excel sheet and then run a bracket simulation there. But it's nothing you want emulate, lol.

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They were in that game!!! Two years prior against Tennessee too

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author

They were in that game... for about 7 minutes if I recall. LOL

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And what a 7 minutes they were

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I don’t know how to manipulate this data to make the case that Colgate will finally get a tournament win, but when I find it, you’ll be the first to know — Baylor’s not invincible, right?

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author

As someone who was ABSOLUTELY convinced Colgate would upset Arkansas (and go on to be a Cinderella) in 2021, I'm not the right person to ask. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-favorites-and-cinderellas-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament/

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Just get to the post where you explain to us amateurs how to fill out our brackets (the ones where you get a point for a win + a seed number) 🙏

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