Which Dark-Horse NFL Playoff Team Can Crash the Favorites' Super Bowl Party?

Let's make the case for teams NOT named the Lions, Bills, Ravens, Eagles and Chiefs.

Are Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a threat to the NFL’s favorites? (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

I’ve written a few times this season about how top-heavy the NFL has looked in 2024. Between the Detroit Lions’ historically dominant campaign — they ended up with the 28th-best regular season point margin ever — and a record four teams boasting at least 14 wins per 17 games (and a co-record¹ two teams with 15+ wins per 17) overall, this is one of the strongest group of favorites we’ve ever seen heading into the playoffs.

So there’s a good reason why, in simulations using my SRS ratings, the top five teams — the Lions, Ravens, Bills, Eagles and Chiefs — have a combined 77 percent chance to win Super Bowl LIX. And the simulations using Elo ratings² are even more bullish on that same group of favorites, assigning them an 82 percent of winning the championship. Here’s a rundown of the odds according to an average of the two models:

Of course, there are nine other playoff teams left to split that remaining ~20 percent of championship probability amongst themselves. And some of these teams are really good! So I thought it would be interesting to sift through the numbers around why a team from outside the Big Five might have a legitimate shot at crashing the party, even in an unusually top-heavy NFL season.