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It’s Wednesday in sports, and that means we are quickly hurtling toward the resolutions of our second-round series in the NBA and NHL. The San Antonio Spurs beat the Minnesota Timberwolves to take a 3-2 lead in their series, behind Victor Wembanyama’s 27 points and 17 rebounds, while the Golden Knights reasserted themselves to take their own 3-2 series lead over the Anaheim Ducks. The Colorado Avalanche could end their series with the Minnesota Wild tonight as well — but it’s not all denouements quite yet. The Buffalo Sabres tied things up 2-2 with the Montreal Canadiens last night, and the Pistons and Cavs are right in the thick of their own 2-2 battle tonight. We’ll have a bit more below on how best-of-seven series odds tend to swing on each of these game results, but in the meantime, here’s what else we’re watching today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Cavaliers (38%) at Pistons (62%),* Game 5 (Series tied 2-2) - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Wild (33%) at Avalanche (67%), Game 5 (COL leads 3-1) - 8 p.m. (TNT/truTV) 🚨
MLB:
⚾ Guardians (59%) at Angels (41%) - 1:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (61%) at Orioles (39%) - 6:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Rays (41%) at Blue Jays (59%) - 7:07 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Cubs (56%) at Braves (44%) - 7:15 p.m. (TBS)
WNBA:
🏀 Storm (41%) at Tempo (59%) - 6 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Aces (88%) at Sun (12%) - 8 p.m. (USA)
🏀 Sparks (47%) at Fever (53%) - 9:30 p.m. (USA)
Soccer:
⚽ Premier League: Crystal Palace (6%) at Manchester City (82%) - 3 p.m. (Peacock)
⚽ MLS: FC Cincinnati (32%) at Inter Miami CF (47%) - 7:30 p.m. (Apple TV)
Tennis:
🎾 Italian Open, men’s (Jannik Sinner 83% to win) and women’s (Elena Rybakina and Iga Świątek 31% to win) singles
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Swing it
We’re deep in the weeds of round 2 in the NBA and NHL playoffs now, with multiple 2-2 games last night and another tonight. These are the types of games in a best-of-seven series that can completely swing the outcome between who wins and who loses.
But by how much?
Whether you’re trading in prediction markets or just following as a fan, it’s useful to have a concept of which games are most important in a series and how the odds in a series change as it moves through different states of wins and losses. Luckily, there are places where you can find the all-time records in both basketball and hockey for best-of-seven series in each possible state. For instance, a team up 3-2 in an NBA series (like the San Antonio Spurs) wins 84.4% of the time, while a team in the same state in the NHL (like the Vegas Golden Knights) wins just 79.8% of the time.
From there, we can measure the difference in series win probability between winning and losing the next game, which gives us a sense of both how much leverage is attached to each game and where a series is most vulnerable to a sudden narrative shift:
In the NBA, the biggest swing comes in Game 7, which makes sense: it’s the ultimate do-or-die contest. Game 5 when the series is 2-2 is not quite that important, though it does carry the second-biggest swing of any game, a 69-point gap between the odds if you win (84.4%) or lose (15.6%). What might be surprising is that Game 6 of a 3-2 series — whether you’re leading or trailing — historically has less of a gap in stakes (50%) than Game 3 when it’s 1-1 (54%) or Game 1 when it’s (obviously) 0-0 (51%). And Game 4 when it’s 2-1 (45%) in either direction isn’t far off, either.
Turning our attention to hockey, we find smaller swings almost across the board — which is exactly what you’d expect from the more chaotic playoff sport:
But things do get serious quickly by the end of a series, with Game 6 of a 3-2 series (either way) actually being the third-most-important scenario of the NHL playoffs, behind only Game 7 and Game 5 when it’s 2-2.
What does this mean when it comes to following the two sports? Well, if you’re going to overreact early to results, do it in the NBA — those early contests actually carry surprising weight relative to the rest of a series. In the NHL, make it more of a slow burn, realizing that any early lead can be erased later on, inevitably producing a high-stakes late-series collision with each team’s entire season on the line.
And once you get to Game 7 in either league, there’s no more leverage to calculate — just the cruelest 100% versus 0% swing in sports.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Dodgers are Dodger-ing
The LA Dodgers would seem to be a little wobbly right now — they’ve lost four straight games and, as usual, it seems like half their roster is on the injured list. According to Spotrac, no team has devoted more of its cash payroll to players on the injured list, a figure that is currently at $18.9 million and is over $22.5 million if we consider it cumulatively for the season as a whole. (See below.) But the prediction markets aren’t worried. They still give LA a 27% chance to win the title, realizing that the Dodgers are an NBA-style team whose midseason form and health are less important than what it will be in October.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “It’s True: LeBron’s Lakers Stint Was Indeed a Success” by me
⚾ “The Silence of Big Dumper” by Yirsandy Rodríguez
🏀 “The NBA Doesn’t Need A Dictator” by Michael Weinreb
⚾ “Baseball’s Hall of Fame doesn’t care about player salaries” by Mark Kolier
🏁 “A first-timer’s observations about Watkins Glen International” by NASCARCASM
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (5/14)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Sabres, Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Ducks, Game 6 (VEG leads 3-2)
⚾ MLB: Padres at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Wings
⚽ LALIGA: Real Madrid vs. Real Oviedo
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship (Aronimink Golf Club - Newtown Square, PA)
🏈 NFL: 2026 schedule released
Friday (5/15)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Pistons at Cavs, Game 6
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at T-Wolves, Game 6 (SAS leads 3-2)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Avalanche at Wild, Game 6 (if necessary)
⚾ MLB: Royals at Cardinals
⚾ MLB: Padres at Mariners
🏀 WNBA: Mystics at Fever
⚽ Premier League: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship
Saturday (5/16)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Sabres at Canadiens, Game 6
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Ducks at Golden Knights, Game 7 (if necessary)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Mets
🏀 WNBA: Aces at Dream
⚽ FA Cup: Chelsea vs. Manchester City
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.