What We’ve Learned So Far in the 2025 MLB Playoffs — and What's Next

The wild-card round is done. Here’s who impressed, who survived and what the next stage of October baseball has in store.

One of the most striking things about MLB’s best-of-three wild-card playoff format is that the series seem to go by in a flash. The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians went from being excited about chasing down playoff spots to being chased out of the playoffs in a matter of days. The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres, each of whom had the talent to aim for a World Series, will now contemplate the offseason just like the 18 non-playoff teams whose seasons ended last Sunday.

And if life comes at teams fast when they get eliminated from the wild-card round, the teams who advanced will also have to adapt quickly. They’ll need to assess what went right and wrong in Round 1, make any necessary adjustments and prep for the next opponent within just a day or two — while those same opponents now know who they must face with rest (if not rust) on their side.

Here’s a reset of the playoff odds according to the Elo forecast model, updated through the wild card round:

As we bid a fast farewell to the Padres, Red Sox, Guardians and Reds, let’s look at what we learned in each series, and/or what we can apply to the Division Series going forward:

⚾ The Dodgers are dangerous again.

It’s been an oddly subdued season in Tinseltown for most of the year, with the Dodgers posting their fewest wins in a full season (93) since 2018, their lowest Elo rating to close a regular season (1560) since 2017 and their lowest RPG differential (+0.88) since 2016. Despite having the best player in the National League in their lineup — and on the mound, on 14 occasions — L.A. started the year at a very good but not all-time great Elo level, then fell to merely “fine” for the majority of the second half.

However, they did finish the schedule with a 15-10 record in September, their best month since June, and The Cincinnati Reds can tell you what facing the Dodgers in the postseason is like: Not pleasant. In their two-game wild-card sweep, L.A. outscored the Reds by 4.5 RPG (scoring 9.0 per game), six of nine regular batters had an OPS of 1.000 or higher, and starters Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed 2 ER in 13 ⅔ innings.

The bullpen was less successful, and that’s been an Achilles heel for L.A. all season. But in a postseason with no other overwhelming counter-favorites, the Dodgers look as good as anybody. After updating the Elo ratings, Los Angeles now ranks as the NL’s second-most likely pennant winner (behind the Brewers).

Before they can get that far, L.A.’s NLDS showdown against the Phillies — another of the top-tier favorites — sits as the best matchup of Round 2 by Elo. It’s going to be a fascinating chess match between Philly’s elite pitching staff (especially the starters) and a lineup that ranked third in park-adjusted RPG despite some key hitters underperforming expectations.

The Phillies are a great team that finished the regular season ranked No.1 in Wins Above Replacement, but the Dodgers are slight favorites (50.7 percent) according to Elo. And if L.A. keeps rolling, all of those preseason fears about them from the rest of baseball could come to fruition.