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Welcome to Thursday, where the sports world is embracing both uncertainty and possibility. On the uncertainty side, MLB is headed for an intense final few days before the trade deadline on Monday at 6 p.m. — and we’ll dive below into the ace who could define the next 72+ hours. Golf has its own instability, with the Saudi-backed LIV experiment reportedly faltering again as its Michigan finale gets canceled. But in football, this is still the time of fresh starts, as NFL training camps open and every team gets to believe this will be the year. It’s a strange little moment on the sports calendar, so here’s what to watch today as it all plays out:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Yankees (48%) at White Sox (52%)* - 2:10 p.m. (YES / MLB.tv)
⚾ Cubs (48%) at Cardinals (52%) - 2:15 p.m. (Marquee / MLB.tv)
⚾ Nationals (42%) at Braves (58%) - 7:15 p.m. (ESPN+ / MLB.tv)
⚾ Mariners (41%) at Dodgers (59%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB Network / MLB.tv)
⚾ Trade deadline in 4️⃣ days
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 35% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Lynx (85%) at Tempo (15%) - 8:00 p.m. (Prime Video / WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Liberty (35%) at Aces (65%) - 10:00 p.m. (Prime Video / WNBA League Pass) - Always serious when these rivals clash!
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 42% to win WNBA title
Golf:
⛳ Rocket Classic (Detroit Golf Club - Detroit, MI) - Round 1 - 7:00 a.m. (PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ / Golf Channel at 3:00 p.m.) - Cameron Young 8% to win
Soccer:
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: Grêmio (74%) vs. Club Bolívar (9%) - 6:00 p.m. (beIN SPORTS) - 2nd Leg (BLV leads 3-2 on aggregate) 🚨
⚽ Club Friendly: Sunderland (34%) vs. Leeds United (43%) - 7:30 p.m. (Sports Illustrated Stadium - Harrison, NJ)
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: O’Higgins (24%) vs. Boca Juniors (47%) - 8:30 p.m. (Fubo / beIN SPORTS) - 2nd Leg (BJR leads 1-0 on aggregate) 🚨
⚽ Copa Sudamericana Playoff: Caracas F.C. (32%) vs. Independiente Santa Fe (41%) - 8:30 p.m. (beIN SPORTS / Fubo) - 2nd Leg (SFE leads 2-0 on aggregate) 🚨
⚽ MLS Championship check-in: Inter Miami 30% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL Championship check-in: Washington Spirit 29% to win
Basketball:
🏀 The Basketball Tournament (TBT) Vegas Championship: Davis Steel (62%) vs. The Mecca (38%) - 7:00 p.m. (FS1)
Football:
🏈 NFL training camps open (veterans report)
🏈 Big Ten Media Days - Day 3 (Big Ten Network)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Skubal watch intensifies
For what might be the final time as a Detroit Tiger, two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal took to the mound Wednesday — and reminded us all why he has taken on an almost LeBron James-like level of attention in the days leading up to MLB’s trade deadline. At the same time, the Tigers also reminded us why Skubal leaving has felt so inevitable this season.
For Skubal himself, it was mostly a normal day at the office — up until the seventh inning, he cruised without allowing a run, striking out 6 Orioles while yielding just 2 hits and 0 walks. Then he allowed a couple of baserunners, and a 2-out single by Leody Taveras drove in a run to force Skubal’s departure from the game. At that point, Detroit still led 7-1, a healthy-enough lead to entrust an ordinary bullpen with.
So of course, the Tigers’ pen immediately blew it. Skubal got tagged with additional runs that inning because Kyle Finnegan allowed his bequeathed runners — yes, that’s the term — to cross the plate (among others), eventually slicing Detroit’s lead to 7-5. Then, in the eighth, Drew Anderson gave up a game-tying triple to Coby Mayo that led to extra innings. A few wild back-and-forth swings later, the O’s got a go-ahead run in the top of 12th and closed out an improbable comeback to spoil Skubal’s possible farewell.
It was an encapsulation of a disappointing Tigers season that has seen Detroit play better on paper than their record indicates, with many elite-level individual performances — Skubal’s full-season pace of 4.2 Wins Above Replacement only ranks fourth on the team behind Kevin McGonigle (7.0), Dillon Dingler (6.5) and Casey Mize (4.4) — but also fall short due to that malfunctioning bullpen and other methods of losing close games.
As a result, the Tigers’ playoff odds are below 20% and with Skubal set to become a free agent, the smart move is probably to deal him for prospects and reset for a new era in the Motor City. So, the prediction markets now assign roughly 90% odds that Skubal will be on the move by early next week:
The only question is where he might land. After moments in the past month when it seemed like the Milwaukee Brewers might be the spot, recent events — namely, Shohei Ohtani’s pitching injury — have pushed the LA Dodgers into the lead for Skubal’s services, according to the market:
If that happens, the howling over MLB’s competitive-balance problems will only grow as the league stares down a potentially lengthy and sport-altering labor stoppage after the season. So maybe the market to watch in tandem with Skubal’s is this one, regarding the odds of a lockout when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
LIV’s dying
LIV Golf was once supposed to “disrupt” the sport by throwing money at anyone willing to jump ship from the PGA Tour. But the revolution keeps getting smaller: The league is reportedly canceling its $40 million Michigan team championship, cutting its planned 2026 schedule from 14 events to 12 as it searches for funding beyond Saudi Arabia’s PIF. And LIV never quite took over the sport’s top tier anyway. According to Data Golf’s late-July rankings each year since 2023, it peaked with 19 of the world’s top 100 players as primary-tour members in 2024, never had more than four inside the top 25, and is down to 15 top-100 players this season.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Are the Phillies Phavorites or Phrauds?” by me
🏁 “Where we’ve seen shades of Hocevar-Heim rivalry in other sports — and what could come next” by Cameron Richardson
🏁 “Sweet Home Chicago... Or Perhaps Not: Both NASCAR and the Chicago Bears may both be competing outside of Chicago proper in future seasons.” by Aaron Bearden
⚾ “The Perfect Ballplayer: Here’s the perfect player as imagined by Jazz Chisholm” by Sean Smith
🏁 “What Does The FIA Do In F1? The Governing Body Explained” by Formula Reports
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (7/31)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Fire
⚽ Soccer: NYCFC at Toronto FC
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic - Round 2
Saturday (8/1)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Mercury
⚽ MLS: Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic - Round 3
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
Sunday (8/2)
⚾ MLB: Red Sox at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Lynx
🏀 TBT: $2 Million Championship Game 🚨
⚽ Club Friendly: Liverpool vs. Leeds United
⛳ Golf: Rocket Classic - Final Round
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.