The Top Hitters Who Should Be In Demand at MLB’s Trade Deadline
We matched the best available trade targets at each position with the teams that need them the most.
(co-byline: Javon Edmonds / The Messenger)
As the Aug. 1 trade deadline approaches, MLB teams are on the clock and must decide if they’re all-in on their current rosters or if they’re going to make personnel moves geared toward the postseason (buyers) or toward future rebuilding efforts (sellers).
While a lot of the action might not unfold until the final 48 hours before the deadline — some teams hold on to hope for too long — there’s a way to identify which direction teams might be leaning based on their playoff odds and cross-referencing it with the list of upcoming free agents for clues as to who might be soon wearing a new uniform.
Similar to the exercise we did with pitchers, we’re looking at clubs in the postseason mix and top players whose current teams might want to consider packing it in for the rest of the season.
At each position, we isolated the top 10 teams with at least a 20% playoff probability and the greatest need at each position — based on the fewest Wins Above Replacement this year — and the 10 best pending free agents on teams with less than a 50% chance to make the postseason. (This may create potential overlaps, but teams are sometimes on the fence about whether to be buyers or sellers.)
While the entire universe of players who could be moved is larger than the pool of free-agents-to-be, this approach provides a decent snapshot of who is shopping for talent and who might be out there—assuming the price is right.
It will be interesting to watch the trade market develop around catchers. Among teams with at least a 20% playoff probability, six rank 20th or worse in WAR from behind the plate this season, including the worst and second worst clubs (the Guardians and Astros).
But unlike last season, when interesting names such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez were potentially on the block, it might be difficult to find useful reinforcements at catcher this season. Mariners backup Tom Murphy (.881 OPS in 37 games) is tracking for the most WAR of any pending free agent backstop who might be available, followed by Yan Gomes (Cubs) and a somewhat resurgent Gary Sánchez (Twins).
Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong figures to be in demand at the deadline as St. Louis ponders whom to sell. He and Detroit’s Javy Baez are the only future free agents at 2B or SS on track for 1.0 WAR this season.
As for buyers, the Red Sox rank 28th in WAR from both second base and shortstop, so both positions are huge areas of need if Boston (2.5 games out of the AL wild card) wants to mount a charge down the stretch. The Red Sox are one of four teams — with San Francisco, Cleveland and Milwaukee — that have a playoff probability of 20% or higher but rank 21st or worse in production from middle infielders this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a solid bet (65%) to win the NL Central, but they’ve compiled their 56-45 record while getting the least WAR from corner infielders of any team in baseball. The starters responsible for most of that underperformance — 1B Rowdy Tellez and 3B Brian Anderson — are currently out of the lineup with injuries, giving Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio a shot, but Milwaukee might want to add more before the postseason.
The same can be said for the Phillies (who are now trying Bryce Harper at 1B), Marlins and Yankees, all of whom could stand to kick the tires on a group of corner-infield trade targets led by Nationals 3B Jeimer Candelario. Candelario has an .821 OPS (28% better than average) with plus defense at the hot corner, making him an obvious upgrade for most of the contenders on our list.
The Yankees have a need not just in their starting rotation, but also in a lineup that relies far too heavily on Aaron Judge. Shohei Ohtani would fix both problems, upgrading a DH mix that ranks 18th in WAR. But New York’s needs for help at DH or in the outfield are not unique. Six other clubs in our buyers’ group rank among the bottom half of production from those positions. And aside from starting pitching, this is the position group with the most depth in terms of pending free agents that can boost a team. If an Ohtani deal falls through, there’s always a rejuvenated Cody Bellinger (Cubs), Tommy Pham (one of the bright spots among the Mets’ offseason pickups), Jorge Soler (if the Marlins sell instead of buy) and a host of other solid names. An ample match between supply and demand could lead to a number of deals at this position to help contenders improve.
Filed under: Baseball