1 Comment
Jun 25Liked by Neil Paine

Your write-up is spot on and yet another proof point for Bill James' "Whirlpool Principle" (or "The Law of Competitive Balance") - which I have previously mentioned. That is, winning teams too often are paralyzed by their success and fail to incrementally make changes and get better as Florida did. Instead, many stay the same and very quickly find themselves pulled to a common level of mediocrity as less successful teams do make changes and improve.

Kudos to Bill Zito for resisting the urge to be complacent.

Of course, the principle also applies to coaches and this series is perhaps a cautionary tale for Paul Maurice. You need to keep evolving and adjusting in the postseason and within each series, not just rolling out the same strategy and assuming you can win one in four because you have won a bunch and history suggests it is on your side. The other side is adjusting to you, so nothing stays the same.

Florida didn't just lose three straight, they got beaten soundly. After each loss, stoically telling everyone you're not making any changes and feel no pressure or urgency ultimately worked tonight...perhaps not so much down the road. The situation in front of him screamed for changes.

Again, it's easy to embrace the status quo and do nothing. Ride it out and play not to lose - few will criticize you. Making changes takes real courage when the stakes are high. However, there comes a time when you as a leader need to assess the situation and emotional state of your team and dial up the emotion and urgency a bit.

Perhaps I'm wrong here, but I never got the feeling Maurice was doing that. He seemed to be treading water until the next game hoping for reversion to the mean. Again, it eventually worked out - but, is best viewed in my opinion as a fortunate teaching moment.

Last, I find it ironic if my counting is correct that the geographical region least associated with ice hockey - Florida - has four Cups in 20 years, while the region whose entire heart and soul is buried in the sport - Canada - is 30 plus years and counting. Not fair.

Expand full comment