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Welcome to Wednesday, where — for the first time since June 10 — there are no World Cup matches. While this means I’ll have to figure out what to do with my suddenly empty-feeling day otherwise, it also means we get the chance to take a breath and reset after an incredible month of soccer, among other sports in action. Today’s newsletter will focus on the first rule of sports — never count out a GOAT, no matter their age — as we look at Lionel Messi’s latest miracle and Novak Djokovic’s latest marathon win. But before that, there’s also still plenty of baseball and basketball on the docket to keep us occupied:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚽ World Cup odds: France 34% to win*
MLB:
⚾ Phillies (45%) at Reds (55%) - 7:10 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚾ Brewers (57%) at Cardinals (43%) - 7:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ D-Backs (43%) at Padres (57%) - 10:10 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Valkyries (73%) at Tempo (27%) - 7 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Lynx (72%) at Sun (28%) - 7:30 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Fever (70%) at Sparks (30%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 31% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 52%
Tennis:
🎾 Wimbledon, Round 2 (ESPN/ESPN+) - Jannik Sinner 66% (men’s) and Karolina Muchova 35% (women’s) to win 🚨
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France, Stage 5 - Tadej Pogacar 84% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
A very Messi comeback
There are some miracles even great players can’t pull off — but GOATs seem able to, anyway.
Think back to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, trailing the Atlanta Falcons 28-3 with just over 2 minutes left in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI, before mounting what was probably the greatest comeback in sports history. It shouldn’t have been possible, but Brady spent his career redefining what “possible” actually meant.
Lionel Messi has that same DNA, too. On Tuesday, Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 in the 79th minute of its Round of 16 match, staring down one of the most shocking exits in World Cup history. (The Pharaohs only had about a 15% chance to win before the match, according to the prediction markets.) But roughly 24 minutes of game time later — including stoppage time — the defending champions had somehow won, 3-2.
Ignore the cliché: a 2-goal deficit in soccer is very difficult to overcome, in general. It’s not exactly 25 points like the Patriots faced — it’s more like 15 points in the NFL, based on our cross-sport equivalencies — but the Pats also had more time remaining to execute their comeback. When New England went down 28-3, Brady had 39.2% of the game left to work with — though that figure did dwindle to 28.5% before James White scored to cut the Falcons’ lead.
By contrast, Messi and Argentina went down 2 at the 67th minute, with just 25.6% of regulation time left — or about 29.5% if roughly 5 minutes of stoppage time were to be assumed. And that percentage shrunk to just 16.8% by the 79th minute, before Cristian Romero headed home a Messi cross to set the score at 2-1 — and then Messi himself tied the game in the 83rd minute. By the time Enzo Fernández gave La Albiceleste the 3-2 lead in the 92nd minute, Argentina had completely flipped a 2-goal deficit in the span of just 13 minutes of play.
In the win probability models from Super Bowl LI, the Falcons achieved a maximum 99.7% chance to win before everything began to unravel. But those cold, mathematical models didn’t account for the Brady factor on the other side of the ball. The prediction markets, however, knew about Messi and seemed to adjust accordingly on Tuesday. Even as Egypt led 2-0 into that 79th minute, the Pharaohs’ win probability only ever peaked just shy of 90% (89.7%, to be exact), perhaps indicating a belief that, somehow, some way, the GOAT of soccer would be able to engineer the comeback regardless.
And sure enough, that ended up being true. Smartly, in the decade since Brady, the market learned better than to write off a GOAT before the final whistle.
Now Argentina are on to the quarterfinals, going up against a Switzerland side that just pulled off a minor upset win by knocking off Colombia as a 60-40 underdog, with penalties breaking a dull 0-0 tie. Messi and crew are around 74% to advance to the semis, and it is true that Argentina have been living dangerously lately, needing extra time to beat heavy underdog Cabo Verde in the previous match as well. So they can’t take anything for granted — but at the same time, as long as Messi is still out there, the impossible will never feel off the table, either.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Marathon man
Speaking of ageless wonders: Even at age 39, nobody survives lengthy tennis matches like Novak Djokovic. The seven-time Wimbledon champ’s latest marathon masterpiece came Tuesday against Felix Auger-Aliassime, as the 25-year-old Canadian pushed him to five sets. But Djokovic outlasted his younger opponent to win the longest quarterfinal in tournament history, finishing just before the All England Club’s 11 p.m. curfew. It was Djokovic’s 38th career five-set victory at a major — extending an all-time record for men’s tennis — and it tied his iconic 2018 semifinal victory over Rafael Nadal for the longest match of his Wimbledon career, at 5 hours and 15 minutes. Next up on Friday? Just a matchup with No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner, where Djokovic is an 80-20 underdog.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “The Past Month Has Broken the 2026 MLB Season” by me
⚽ “Who Gets to Own the World Cup? Richard Nixon, red cards, and the oldest trick in the political playbook.” by Michael Weinreb
🏒 “The Bobrovsky Signing is Bad, Actually” by GabArr
⚾ “Case #001: Ryan Braun / A brand new series, The Docket presents a re-examination of the Ryan Braun saga” by Ben
⚾ “No Turning the Paige: Reflecting the day after Satchel Paige’s 120th birthday” by Jeff Kallman
🏁 “Norris Says McLaren Must Improve After Silverstone” by Formula Reports
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (7/9)
⚽ World Cup: France vs. Morocco 🚨
⚾ MLB: Braves at Pirates
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Mercury
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Semifinals
⛳ Golf: Genesis Scottish Open, Round 1
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 6
Friday (7/10)
⚽ World Cup: Spain vs. Belgium 🚨
⚾ MLB: D-Backs at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Sun
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Men’s Semifinals
⛳ Golf: Genesis Scottish Open, Round 2
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 7
Saturday (7/11)
⚽ World Cup: Norway vs. England 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Argentina vs. Switzerland 🚨
⚾ MLB: Braves at Cardinals
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Lynx
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Ladies’ Singles Final
⛳ Golf: Genesis Scottish Open, Round 3
🥊 UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 8
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.