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Happy Thursday, as a big sports week rolls on. In the World Cup, we asked yesterday whether the favorites would keep asserting themselves or falter again — and Wednesday’s answer was… a little of both. England took care of business against a strong Croatian side, winning 4-2 to solidify their place in a tier right below favored France in the title odds. Portugal, on the other hand, saw a disappointing draw vs. DR Congo drop their odds to win Group K below 50% (and hurt their broader outlook as well). At the same time, wins by Colombia and Ghana boosted each team’s odds to make the Round of 16. We’ll have another busy day of action today, with teams beginning to play their second group-stage matches — and as if all of that wasn’t enough, we also have a men’s major golf championship getting underway at the U.S. Open. We’ll be back in your inbox on the other side of tomorrow’s Juneteenth holiday and the weekend, but here’s a snapshot of what is going on today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Czechia (54%) vs. South Africa (22%) - 12 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Switzerland (63%) vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (16%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Canada (77%) vs. Qatar (9%) - 6 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Mexico (48%) vs. South Korea (25%) - 9 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 20% to win
MLB:
⚾ Guardians (41%) at Brewers (59%) - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Mets (46%) at Phillies (54%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB Network)
⚾ Giants (42%) at Braves (58%) - 7:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
NCAA:
⚾ College World Series: No games. (UNC-Oklahoma final begins June 20)
⚾ Championship check-in: UNC 59% to win CWS
WNBA:
🏀 Dream (49%) at Fever (51%) - 7:30 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 27% to win WNBA title
Golf:
⛳ U.S. Open, Round 1 (Shinnecock Hills Golf Club - Southampton, NY) - Scottie Scheffler 15% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Shinnecock-blocked
The golf world will descend upon Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island this week for the U.S. Open, which traditionally means a lot of frustrated players hacking at balls buried deep in the rough, wondering why they ever picked this stupid sport in the first place.
Of the four men’s major golf tournaments, the U.S. Open is the one with the greatest reputation for punishing players’ mistakes, between the narrow fairways, ankle-deep rough, firm greens, and just the USGA’s general commitment to “defending par”. And the numbers back this up — since all four majors went to stroke play in 1958, the average score for U.S. Open winners (278.8) is the highest, nearly 2 strokes above that of the average major winner overall:
The last time the U.S. Open visited Shinnecock in 2018, the course upheld that reputation, with winner Brooks Koepka scoring a 281 — even higher than usual — as the tournament strongly favored accuracy and approach-shot quality. According to the excellent Data Golf website, players they rated as “accurate” beforehand performed 0.23 strokes better than expected per round, while those deemed “inaccurate” performed 0.20 strokes worse than expected per round.
Who might that favor among the top players this week? Among players with at least a 0.5% chance to win in the prediction market odds, the most accurate players in the field (per Data Golf) are Russell Henley, PGA champ Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood (probably the current best player to never win a major) and Alex Fitzpatrick, while the best at approach shots are Collin Morikawa, defending U.S. Open champ J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sepp Straka.
But of course, pure skill and talent can override course fit at even the most punishing of venues, which is why World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is still your heavy favorite to win, at 14% — nobody else is higher than Rory McIlroy at 7.6%.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
#goals
Soccer is (in)famously lower-scoring than its other popular sporting brethren: the average Premier League match in the 2025-26 season featured just 2.75 combined goals by both teams – granted, the league hit a record of 3.28 goals per game average in 2023-24 – compared with 6.17 goals per game in hockey and 8.96 runs per game in baseball. (To say nothing of the NFL’s 46.0 combined points per game, or the 231.2 mark we see in the NBA!) But this year’s World Cup is at least trending toward more goals: in Round 1 so far, teams have combined for 3.12 GPG, which is the most scoring at the start of any World Cup in the modern era and the most since 1958 produced 3.37 total goals per match in the opening stage. And with favorites like Spain and Portugal needing to open their offensive throttles after drawing their debut matches, there’s good reason to think the free-scoring trend might continue.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 Ed Weiland’s NBA draft rankings: Point Guards | Traditional SGs | 3P Specialists | Wings
🏀 “Everything You Missed in the WNBA’s First Month” by Chris Gunther
⛳ “LIV Golf Is Running on Loans Now, Not Capital” by Money in Sport
🏈 “Inside the Philadelphia Eagles pandemonium with Zach Berman” by Tyler Dunne
🏒 “Why Plano Makes Geographic Sense for the Dallas Stars” by Aaron Knodell
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (6/19)
⚽ World Cup: US vs. Australia / Scotland vs. Morocco / Brazil vs. Haiti / Türkiye vs. Paraguay
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Braves
⚾ NCAA: College World Series, no games (off day)
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Valkyries
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 2
Saturday (6/20)
⚽ World Cup: Netherlands vs. Sweden / Germany vs. Ivory Coast / Ecuador vs. Curaçao / Tunisia vs. Japan
⚾ MLB: Nats at Rays
⚾ NCAA: College World Series - Oklahoma vs. North Carolina (Championship Series Game 1)
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Dream
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 3
🥊 Boxing: Oscar Collazo vs. Joey Canoy (WBA and WBO strawweight titles)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (Las Vegas, NV)
Sunday (6/21)
⚽ World Cup: Spain vs. Saudi Arabia / Belgium vs. Iran / Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde / New Zealand vs. Egypt
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
⚾ NCAA: College World Series - Oklahoma vs. North Carolina (Championship Series Game 2) 🚨
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Sparks
⛳ Golf: US Open, Final Round
🏁 NASCAR: Anduril 250
🏁 IndyCar: XPEL Grand Prix at Road America
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.