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Greetings and welcome to another week in sports! What a weekend we are coming off of, which saw multiple first-round Game 7s — even if we fell short of the six do-or-die contests that were once possible on Sunday — and a few surprising teams moving on to round 2 of the NBA and NHL playoffs. We also witnessed history at Churchill Downs on Saturday, as 23-1 underdog Golden Tempo and jockey Jose Ortiz had a remarkable late sprint from last place to win the Kentucky Derby, in the process making Cherie DeVaux the first woman to train a Derby-winning horse. What can this week do as an encore? Here’s what to watch on Monday with round 2 of the various playoffs moving forward, and more:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Sixers (29%) at Knicks (71%),* Game 1 (Series tied 0-0) - 8 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
🏀 T-Wolves (17%) at Spurs (83%), Game 1 (Series tied 0-0) - 9:30 p.m. (Peacock)
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Flyers (30%) at Hurricanes (70%), Game 2 (CAR leads 1-0) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒 Ducks (39%) at Golden Knights (61%), Game 1 (Series tied 0-0) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
MLB:
⚾ Orioles (32%) at Yankees (68%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Dodgers (65%) at Astros (35%) - 8:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Braves (42%) at Mariners (58%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
Soccer:
⚽ Premier League: Chelsea (24%) at Nottingham Forest (56%) - 10 a.m. (USA Network)
⚽ Premier League: Manchester City (67%) at Everton (14%) - 3 p.m. (USA Network)
Tennis:
🎾 Italian Open, men’s and women’s early rounds
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Begun, the second rounds have
The opening round of the NBA or NHL playoffs — or even something like March Madness — is always where chaos lives, given the plentiful opportunities for upsets and blown-up brackets, among teams just getting acclimated to the feeling of the postseason. But round 2? That’s when things start to get serious, as the favorites are starting to mostly face each other, or at least face underdogs that have already proven they can win and advance.
That’s where the NBA and NHL playoffs currently stand as we head into the week. Hockey snuck in a few Game 1s already, with Carolina blanking Philly on Saturday and Colorado winning a historic shootout with Minnesota — more on that below — on Sunday. But the NBA had to wait to clear out all the Game 7s (or potential Game 7s) from the weekend before starting the second round officially tonight with Knicks/Sixers and Spurs/T-Wolves.
Now we get to peek at what the prediction markets think will happen from here:
In the NHL, Carolina and Colorado have a leg up — at over 80% apiece to advance — both because they won their openers, but also because they have appeared to be on a Stanley Cup collision course for most of the playoffs, with few signs that they won’t meet there. Vegas also has a relatively strong 69% shot at making the conference final in the West, which makes Buffalo-Montreal the second-round matchup closest to a true coin flip. The Sabres are favored roughly 55-45 in the overall odds, but don’t be surprised if this one comes down to a seventh game (even though Montreal needs to figure out how to generate more than 9 shots in a must-win game).
On the NBA side, traders seem to think the West is simply serving up the T-Wolves and Lakers as sacrificial lambs to the Spurs and Thunder, though it’s worth pointing out that the market underestimated both Minnesota and LA throughout round 1, even as they led their series big. Either traders’ skepticism will be proven right, or they’ll be forced to catch up if the series prove competitive. The East shouldn’t have that problem, though, as both underdogs (Philly and Cleveland) have at least a 30% chance to prevail. The Knicks ought to beat the Sixers — which, historically, is exactly where NY is at its most vulnerable — and Pistons-Cavs should be a great series, despite how shaky both teams looked in needing seven games to dispatch their lower-rated opponents in the first round.
In both leagues, we can’t wait to see what happens next — and which of the market’s more inevitable-seeming outcomes turn out to be anything but.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Give me ALL the goals
For fans who stayed up for the nightcap of the weekend action, they got to see the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild score goals. Like, a LOT of goals. After the Avs went up 3-0 in the game’s first 13 minutes, the Wild scored twice to close the first period. Then Minnesota outscored Colorado 3-2 in the second — including three unanswered in a 10-minute span — to make it 5-5 after two periods. Finally, Colorado then poured on FOUR more goals (to Minnesota’s one) in the third to cap off a very un-hockey-like 9-6 final score in Game 1. When all the smoke from the fireworks had cleared, it was tied for the second-most total goals ever scored in the opening game of an NHL playoff series:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “All Signs Point to the Knicks — Which Is the Problem” by me
⛳ “The End of LIV Golf and the Looming Turmoil in Professional Golf” by Money in Sport
🏁 “Racing Loses A Unique Legend” by Aaron Bearden
⚾🎧 “Garret Anderson with Neil Paine” by Pod of Fame
🏙️ “Three numbers do a lot of emotional heavy lifting: Why I still rep the 510 ... and how sports teams marketed Area Codes into identity” by Josh Suchon
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (5/5)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavs at Pistons, Game 1 (Series tied 0-0)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Lakers at Thunder, Game 1 (Series tied 0-0)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Wild at Avalanche, Game 2 (COL leads 1-0)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Mariners
⚾ MLB: Athletics at Phillies
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Astros
⚽ Champions League: Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid (Semifinal, Second Leg)
Wednesday (5/6)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: T-Wolves at Spurs, Game 2
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Sixers at Knicks, Game 2
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Sabres, Game 1 (Series tied 0-0)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Ducks at Golden Knights, Game 2
⚾ MLB: Rangers at Yankees
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Astros
⚾ MLB: Athletics at Phillies
⚽ Champions League: Bayern Munich vs. PSG (Semifinal, Second Leg)
Thursday (5/7)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavs at Pistons, Game 2
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Lakers at Thunder, Game 2
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Flyers, Game 3
⚾ MLB: Rangers at Yankees
⚾ MLB: Athletics at Phillies
⚾ MLB: Orioles at Marlins
⚽ Europa League: Freiburg vs. Braga (Semifinal, Second Leg)
⚽ Europa League: Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest (Semifinal, Second Leg)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.