Pitching Will Be In Demand — And Supply — This MLB Trade Deadline
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander of the Mets are just two of the big names who could be on the move by the trading deadline.
(co-byline: Javon Edmonds / The Messenger)
On Sunday, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the New York Mets will listen to calls for the Cy Young pitching duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Since the two have no-trade clauses in their contracts, they would have to approve any deal. However, it signifies that the Mets will be sellers at the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
New York currently sits 7.5 games out of the last National League Wild Card spot with a 9 percent chance to make the playoffs, which explains why Olney reported the Mets will be fielding calls for players on expiring contracts and short-term deals. With an MLB-leading $358 million payroll, the team that finished with 101 wins in 2022 is seven games below .500, making New York the most disappointing club in baseball this season.
But the Mets’ losses could mean gains for contenders looking to add a Cy Young arm (or two) as they enter the final stretch of the season. While pitching is usually a premium item on the list for deadline shoppers, this year’s crop of buyers who need it — and sellers who have it — might make for a trade deadline that reshapes rotations across the league.
To help play matchmaker between the teams in the mix for pitching and the starters whose current clubs might want to consider packing it in for next season, we isolated the 10 teams with at least a 20 percent playoff probability and the greatest need at the position — based on the fewest Wins Above Replacement from starters or relievers this year — and the 10 best pending free agents on teams with less than a 50 percent chance to make the postseason.
An eclectic mix of teams could be in search of quality starting pitching at the deadline, including clubs we’re not used to seeing in this category (such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees) and some of the 2023 campaign’s most pleasant surprises. The biggest name of all who might be on offer is, of course, a starting pitcher — Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels — and his arm, bat and star power would be an obvious fit for a Yankees team that needs rotation and lineup help, if they can come up with the right trade package. But there are plenty of other non-Ohtani starters having excellent seasons for teams with low playoff odds, including Marcus Stroman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez.
And that list doesn’t even include Scherzer or Verlander, both of whom just missed the cut for the Top 10 starters who might be on the move. (Verlander is also not a free agent until 2026, with a vesting option for 2025, but he is 40 years old and has a lot more remaining career value to teams that can win a championship.) This is the position with the strongest crop of trade targets who might make a legitimate difference in the World Series picture.
As usual, the relief pitching market should also see plenty of activity. And the team in the middle of it all is one that could rival the Mets for the crown of this season’s biggest disappointment.
The San Diego Padres, fresh off an NLCS loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, entered 2023 with one of the best rosters on paper after signing shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a 11-year, $280 million contract. Now, they find themselves in a similar situation as the Mets, four games below .500 and six games out of the Wild Card. (They do at least have a somewhat higher playoff probability, at 31 percent.)
Interestingly, the Padres are both the team most in need of bullpen help and the current employer of lefty closer Josh Hader — probably the most coveted bullpen arm potentially available. While it was hard to imagine the Padres selling before the season, given how much they have invested in winning right now, the decision of what to do with Hader and/or righty Nick Martinez (whose contract comes with multiple options after 2023) will have significant ripple effects on the deadline’s bullpen market. Other contenders such as the Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins rank among the bottom half in relief WAR and should be looking for help, whether in the form of Hader, David Robertson of the Mets or Brent Suter of the Colorado Rockies.
Considering San Diego’s lackluster season and the expiring contracts of Snell and Hader, it’s increasingly likely that those two, at the very least, will be moved within the week. The same could be true of Verlander and Scherzer, along with a host of other sizable talents — to say nothing of the ongoing drama over whether Ohtani will be traded or not. So if your favorite team is among those who need pitching help, get ready for a wild week of rumors, speculation and (maybe) blockbuster deals.
Filed under: Baseball