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Happy Thursday, unless you are an English soccer fan — in which case I am guessing it’s a sad Thursday indeed. Yesterday brought us the second semifinal of the 2026 World Cup, between Argentina and England, and the game was certainly a thrilling affair that came down to the wire. But after England took a 1-0 lead in the 55th minute, they attempted to “park the bus” — and it backfired badly in the face of relentless Argentine pressure. Eventually, Enzo Fernández scored an 85th-minute equalizer before Lautaro Martínez headed home Lionel Messi’s perfect cross in stoppage time to seal a stunning 2-1 comeback win. So it’s on to the Final for La Albiceleste as England searches for answers. Speaking of people in the UK looking for answers, golf’s Open Championship begins today; we’ll have more on that below, after this snapshot of what else is going on in sports:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚽ World Cup odds: Spain 57% to win the tournament
⚽ MLS: CF Montréal (45%) at Toronto FC (30%) - 7:30 p.m.
⚽ MLS: St. Louis City SC (68%) at Sporting Kansas City (14%) - 8:30 p.m.
⚽ MLS: Seattle Sounders FC (66%) at Portland Timbers (16%) - 10:30 p.m.
MLB:
⚾ Mets (44%) at Phillies (56%) - 7:10 p.m. (ESPN)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 32% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Fire (30%) at Mystics (70%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Liberty (45%) at Wings (55%) - 9 p.m.
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 37% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 38%
🏀 Summer League: Nets (58%) at Rockets (42%) - 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
🏀 Summer League: Warriors (70%) at Knicks (30%) - 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏀 Summer League: Raptors (56%) at Heat (44%) - 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Golf:
⛳ British Open Championship, Round 1 (Royal Birkdale) - Scottie Scheffler 26% to win
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France, Stage 12 (Nevers Magny-Cours Circuit to Chalon-sur-Saône) - Tadej Pogacar 94% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Open questions
The Major phase of the 2026 golf season has officially reached its twilight, as the (British) Open Championship tees off at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, Merseyside on Thursday. And with it comes one of the final high-profile chances to define a season that hasn’t been dominated by any single name as much as usual.
The past few years’ stories were easy to write: Each was the Year of Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler had the best single season by a male pro golfer since Tiger Woods in 2024, then basically did it again in 2025. In both seasons, he won major championships — including the British Open a year ago at Royal Portrush. As part of that, he pushed his rolling talent rating (according to Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metric) to the highest point achieved by any golfer since Woods in September 2000. Truly, this was one of the greatest peaks the game had ever seen.
This year, Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world according to the Data Golf ratings, by a comfortable margin over No. 2 Rory McIlroy. He has also accomplished the most of any pro golfer, with nine Top-10 finishes and 14 Top-25s in 15 events on the PGA Tour. However, he has only won a single tournament in 2026 thus far — the American Express Desert Classic on January 25 — meaning Scheffler has gone nearly six months without hoisting a trophy, a span that includes all three majors to date. If this holds, it would be Scheffler’s fewest victories in a season since going winless in 2021, and just his second major-less season in that span as well.
Scheffler’s last chance to avoid a major goose-egg — which, in his prime at age 30, would have real implications for how many he ends up winning in his career — comes this week, and he is the heavy prediction market favorite at Royal Birkdale:
But it’s also worth pointing out that Scheffler’s streak of 78 consecutive made cuts came to a close just last week, at the Genesis Scottish Open in a tune-up for the British Open, ending the game’s longest such streak since Woods set the record at 142 from 1998-2005. It might end up being of no consequence, or it could be another bad omen for Scheffler’s era of dominance in a season where, while still great, he hasn’t been quite as historically dominant as in years past.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Messy (and Messi) wins
As mentioned above, Argentina punched its ticket to the World Cup Final when Messi found Martínez for the game-winner in the 92nd minute of play, despite not leading before that point and trailing England for 30 minutes in the match. That was nothing new for this squad — during the knockouts, they’ve spent roughly 70% of their matches either tied or trailing, requiring extra time to beat both Cape Verde and Switzerland and not taking their first leads against Egypt or England before 92 minutes had elapsed in either match. Here’s a plot of Argentina’s goal differentials by minute of play in each knockout-round game:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⛳ “The 154th Open Live Blog” by Data Golf
🏈 “The ‘Best CFB Games of the Century’ Draft, on Hard Mode” by Split Zone Duo
⚾ “2026 NPB All-Star Rosters” by Thomas Love Seagull
👶 “Why athletes are increasingly the kids of former athletes?” by Nikola Vuković
🏁 “Less (Horsepower) is More For NASCAR’s Superspeedway Package” by Aaron Bearden
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (7/17)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Storm at Fever
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 2
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 13 (Dole to Belfort)
Saturday (7/18)
⚽ World Cup: Third-place match - France vs. England 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Fever
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 3
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 14
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Sunday (7/19)
⚽🏆 2026 FIFA World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Sun at Mercury
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Final Round (Royal Birkdale)
🏁 F1: Belgian Grand Prix (Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps)
🏁 NASCAR: Window World 450 (North Wilkesboro Speedway)
🏁 IndyCar: Music City Grand Prix (Nashville Superspeedway)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 15
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.