Subscribe to Scoreboard by clicking here! Read the archive here.
Happy April Fools’ Day — but we’ll keep things prank-free here, as sports provide plenty of madness on their own, even with March in the rearview. Speaking of: it’s midweek, and that means we’re getting closer to the Final Four on both the women’s and men’s sides of the college basketball aisle — the former tips off Friday in Phoenix, while the latter gets going in Indy on Saturday. We’ve also got plenty of other drama to enjoy until then. In today’s edition of the newsletter, we’ll break down yesterday’s wild final qualifiers for the World Cup and highlight a special accomplishment on the NBA hard court. And while we’re at it, here’s what to keep an eye on today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
MLB:
⚾ Red Sox (58%) at Astros (42%)* - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (48%) at Mariners (52%) - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Guardians (29%) at Dodgers (71%) - 8:20 p.m. (MLB.tv)
NBA:
🏀 Hawks (62%) at Magic (38%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Celtics (66%) at Heat (34%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Knicks (89%) at Grizzlies (11%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Spurs (88%) at Warriors (12%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN)
NHL:
🏒 Canucks (21%) at Avalanche (79%) - 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Ducks (49%) at Sharks (51%) - 9 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Blues (43%) at Kings (57%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
Soccer:
⚽ Women’s Champions League (Second Leg), Chelsea (46%) vs. Arsenal (34%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
Chess:
♟️ Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 4 (Fabiano Caruana 49% to win)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Qualifying complete
The 2026 World Cup qualifying process wrapped up on Tuesday, and the field of 48 (!) teams — the most ever, after the tournament expanded from 32 teams in 2022 — is now officially locked in.
Most of the teams were set a long time ago: the hosting US, Mexico, and Canada were granted automatic berths all the way back in February 2023, while 39 more countries clinched spots through competitions between March and November 2025. That left just six spots to be determined via additional qualifying playoffs over the past week — and the final day offered more than its share of surprises.
In the inter-confederation playoff, the two highest-seeded sides — the DR Congo and Iraq — ended up taking the two available spots to advance. (For Iraq, this is its first World Cup appearance since 1986.) But over in the UEFA qualifying playoff, stunners included Sweden upsetting both Ukraine and Poland to knock both out of the running for the World Cup, and Czechia ousting Denmark on penalties.
But no result was more stunning than Italy losing to Bosnia and Herzegovina in a shoot-out yesterday to miss out on a third consecutive World Cup. The 2006 champions fell short in the group stage in both 2010 and 2014; a tough draw helped cost them a spot in 2018 — the first time since 1958 that Italy failed to qualify for a World Cup; and they somehow missed again in 2022 by losing to North Macedonia in the qualifying playoffs.
Still, 2026 was supposed to be the year the Azzurri returned. And the prediction markets were fairly confident throughout the past week, sitting at 82% going into Italy’s Tuesday match and peaking at 94% when Moise Kean scored 15 minutes in. But a red card midgame left Italy shorthanded, the Bosnians notched the equalizer in the 79th minute, and the game went into penalties — where Italian shooters Pio Esposito and Bryan Cristante missed, and Wisconsin-born winger Esmir Bajraktarević eliminated Italy with a make.
Just like that, a near-certain Italian World Cup berth was gone once again:
At No. 12 in the current FIFA rankings, Italy is the highest-rated national team to miss the 2026 World Cup field, followed by Nos. 21 Denmark and 26 Nigeria:
As for the rest of the teams that actually did qualify, they can now look ahead to June 11 and the start of the 2026 World Cup tournament proper.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Mr. 600
The Los Angeles Lakers are on a real hot streak right now — no team has added more to its Elo power rating over the past 15 days, and only the Wembanyama-powered Spurs have added more over the past month. Helping to fuel LA’s 15-2 record in March: the insane scoring tear of Luka Dončić, who averaged 37.5 points per game (to go with 8.0 rebounds and 7.4 assists) in the month. Along the way, he became only the third NBA player since the 1976 ABA merger to tally 600 points in a single month, joining Michael Jordan in March 1987 and James Harden in January 2019:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Welcome to the NBA’s new A-League, B-League phenomenon. Is it here to stay?” by Tom Haberstroh
⚽ “The Origins of the Set Piece Revolution” by Michael Caley
⚾ “How Extensions are Changing the Way MLB Teams Keeps Their Stars” by Michael McDermott
🏀 “Illinois is doing something never done before” by Jordan Sperber
⚾ “The Phillies’ Win-Now Balancing Act Is Already Being Tested” by me
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (4/2)
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Lakers at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Panthers
⚽ Soccer: Real Madrid at Barcelona (Women’s Champions League)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
Friday (4/3)
🏀 Women’s Final Four: UConn vs. South Carolina
🏀 Women’s Final Four: Texas vs. UCLA
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Bucks
🏒 NHL: Flyers at Islanders
⚽ Ligue 1: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Toulouse
⚽ NWSL: Boston vs. San Diego
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 5
Saturday (4/4)
🏀 Men’s Final Four: UConn vs. Illinois
🏀 Men’s Final Four: Arizona vs. Michigan
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Spurs at Nuggets
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Stars (a perennial playoff preview)
⚽ MLS: Inter Miami at Austin FC
⚽ NWSL: KC Current at Gotham FC
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
🐎 Horse racing: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 6
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.