MLB’s Stretch Run Has Turned Into a Chaotic Free-For-All

A once-stable playoff picture is now in flux — and the shifts are happening fast.

The two NYC managers, in better times. (Screenshot: YES Network)

Just a few weeks ago, as teams prepared to wheel-and-deal at the trade deadline, the 2025 MLB postseason picture appeared to be pretty well in focus.

Five clubs were at or above 90 percent playoff odds on Deadline Day, according to my Elo forecast simulations (Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Tigers, Blue Jays); five more were between 80-90 percent (Astros, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Padres); and three others were between 50-70 percent (Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners). Keeping track, that meant all six of the NL’s playoff spots seemed mostly secured, while the AL wasn’t looking much less settled in its own right.

But ever since, things in the baseball world have started to go off the rails. The Yankees and Mets have both fallen apart in the Big Apple, with their odds plunging in tandem. As the Mariners have surged, hunting the Astros in the AL West, the talented Rangers steadfastly refuse to put things together (despite Nathan Eovaldi’s ERA needing to be viewed through a microscope).¹ The Reds and Guardians — one of whom bought at the deadline despite longish odds; the other who lightly sold, thinking they were probably out of it — have both vaulted back into the chase. And although it may end up being too little, too late, the Marlins have one of the best records in baseball over the past two months.

The result has been a series of playoff-odds shifts that threaten to send that once-established order into flux with seven weeks to go before the postseason: