MLB Playoffs: The Atlanta Braves Are the World Series Champs — Until They Aren’t
Anything can happen in October, but everything must go exactly right for a team to prevent the Braves winning it all. Here are the formulas that could make an upset possible this postseason.
The Atlanta Braves have been dominating baseball with multiple MVP candidates and stud pitchers. What year is this, 1995? Not exactly — but everything old is new again in Atlanta, where the Braves will go into the postseason with MLB’s best record and the best World Series odds of any team.
Anything can happen in the playoffs, but let’s be realistic: The road to winning the World Series goes through Atlanta. Based on an average of the odds from FanDuel and FanGraphs, the Braves have an MLB-best 36% chance of making the Fall Classic and an MLB-best 23% chance of hoisting the trophy.
So let’s look at every contender through that lens. What can the postseason field do — and what must teams avoid — to prevent the Braves from winning their second title in three years?
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds to make WS: 31% | Odds to win WS: 18%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 3-4
When they might play the Braves: NL Championship Series
Why they can beat the Braves: This is the team that used to have Atlanta’s number in the playoffs, defeating them in both the 2018 and 2020 postseasons. A lot has changed since then, of course, but L.A. still boasts top-line talent (Mookie Betts; Freddie Freeman) that can go toe-to-toe with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and the rest of the Braves’ best. The Dodgers were also one of the only teams in the same ZIP code as Atlanta offensively this season, finishing with 5.6 runs per game to the Braves’ MLB-best 5.9. Because Atlanta’s rotation is thin behind Spencer Strider, with Charlie Morton and Max Fried both battling finger injuries, Los Angeles has the firepower — eight regulars with an above-average wRC+ (runs produced per PA relative to average) — to take advantage.
Why they can’t: As much disarray as the Braves’ rotation is in, the Dodgers aren’t looking much better with long-term injuries to Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May (and with Julio Urías on administrative leave for domestic violence). Clayton Kershaw is still Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA), but as we’ve seen in the past, that can only go so far in the postseason. Overall, L.A. ranked just 19th in Wins Above Replacement from starting pitchers, a liability that might be fatal against a lineup as devastating as Atlanta’s.
Philadelphia Phillies
Odds to make WS: 14% | Odds to win WS: 8%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 5-8
When they might meet: NL Division Series
Why they can beat the Braves: The Phillies are a deep team — they nearly have as many 2+ WAR players (11) as the Braves (12) — that could be dangerous yet again in the playoffs. Last October, Philly used its slugging powers (24 home runs in 17 games) and an elite rotation to orchestrate upsets over three teams that had more regular-season wins — including the Braves — before running into the Houston Astros’ buzzsaw in the World Series. Some of the key names have changed since that matchup a year ago, but Philadelphia’s formula is largely the same: They ranked No. 3 in rotation WAR and No. 1 in pitching WAR overall in 2023, and No. 5 in slugging on offense with essentially their entire lineup posing a power threat.
Why they can’t: Although the Phillies did beat the Braves last postseason, they have not consistently shown they can beat Atlanta in 2023, going 5-8 with a minus-16 run differential in head-to-head matchups. Besides, in that playoff series, the Phillies needed an 1.100+ OPS from three different regular hitters while also holding six different Atlanta regulars below .500. It was considered a huge upset for a reason — and given how much scarier Atlanta’s lineup has gotten this season (as Philly’s has stayed roughly steady), a repeat seems unlikely.
Milwaukee Brewers
Odds to make WS: 9% | Odds to win WS: 4%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 1-5
When they might meet: NL Championship Series
Why they can beat the Braves: Milwaukee’s combination of pitching (No. 4 in WAR) and defense (No. 1) might be the perfect antidote to Atlanta’s juggernaut lineup. With Brandon Woodruff back from a shoulder injury for the final few months of the season, the Brewers have the ability to throw multiple elite starters at any opponent in a series, plus one of the best relievers in the game in Devin Williams (1.53 ERA). If having a staff full of strikeout artists, a dominant closer and an airtight defense is the blueprint for exceeding expectations in the crucible of the postseason, the Brewers fit that archetype as well as any team in the field.
Why they can’t: If head-to-head performance is any indicator, the Brewers’ combination of strengths may not matter: They went 1-5 against Atlanta while getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game during the regular season. The hard-hitting Braves belted 16 homers in those six games, as we might expect from Milwaukee’s worse-than-average rate of home runs allowed overall. More broadly, there’s evidence that the team-building formula of “dominant starters, strong relief pitching and great defense” has its limits in the crapshoot that is the postseason — and that might especially be the case when you have one of the worst offenses in the playoff field, as the Brewers do.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds to make WS: 6% | Odds to win WS: 3%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 3-3
When they might meet: NL Division Series
Why they can beat the Braves: As we noted last week, no team has turned the stolen base into more of a weapon (on both offense and defense) than the D-backs under MLB’s new rules this season. With the running game typically receiving even more emphasis in the playoffs, Arizona could have an edge in its efforts to pull off a massive upset — especially considering that Atlanta catchers’ ability to control the running game was average overall (yes, Sean Murphy is a lot better at it than backup Travis d'Arnaud) and the Braves have few truly scary threats on the bases aside from MLB leader Acuna Jr., who had 53 more SBs than Michael Harris II, the next-highest Brave.
Why they can’t: For all of their exciting flair in this breakout campaign, the D-backs have plenty of glaring deficiencies. Despite a trio of great seasons from Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, Arizona ranks just 18th on offense with a subpar wRC+, while their pitching staff is the definition of mediocre aside from Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. This team might steal games with its defense and baserunning in a short series, but they were barely equipped to sneak into the playoffs, much less knock off the World Series favorite.
Miami Marlins
Odds to make WS: 5% | Odds to win WS: 2%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 4-9
When they might meet: NL Championship Series
Why they can beat the Braves: Every time the odds and models count the Marlins out, they seem to find a way to respond. Remember, this is a team that was down to around a 10% playoff probability on Sept. 1, only to post one of the NL’s best records for the month to secure a playoff berth. Even without nominal ace Sandy Alcantara, who was recently lost for the season with a UCL injury, the Marlins are armed with a pair of high-quality starters — Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett — and a pesky lineup that doesn’t strike out and hits for average, typified by NL batting champ Luis Arraez. That combination alone is enough to make Miami a potential spoiler.
Why they can’t: At a certain point, a team’s injured list can simply become too loaded with talented players for the rest of the team to soldier through. On top of Alcantara, Miami is also missing Eury Pérez — whose 3.15 ERA leads all Marlins starters — while Arraez is dealing with a late-season ankle injury as well. And even if they were at full strength, the Marlins (with their minus-56 run differential) would be heavy underdogs against any top contender. They might be at a particular disadvantage against the Braves — Miami went 4-9 against Atlanta during the regular season, with a minus-31 run differential. (That means more than half of Miami’s negative run differential overall was simply due to being shellacked by the Braves.)
American League
Houston Astros
Odds to make WS: 29% | Odds to win WS: 14%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 3-0
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: No team knows what it takes to win in the playoffs more than the Astros, who’ve played in four of the past six World Series and won the championship last season. As usual, Houston boasts a ton of depth — only the Braves have more 3+ WAR players — with a scary, top-heavy lineup (who wants to face DH Yordan Alvarez in the playoffs?) and a familiar staff reinforced by Justin Verlander again. Long before they re-acquired Verlander, the ’Stros swept the Braves in April, winning a rematch of the 2021 World Series.
Why they can’t: As much as Houston still looks imposing, there’s no denying that this version of the Astros isn’t quite on the same level as the 2021 and 2022 squads. Not only did they struggle more than usual to win the AL West, but Houston’s runs-per-game differential (+0.80) was the team’s lowest since its aberrant sub-.500 2020 regular-season sprint and the second lowest since 2016. It’s not that the Astros were bad at much of anything, but they just weren’t as elite across the board as we’re used to seeing: After ranking sixth or better in every WAR category except baserunning last season, batting was their only top-six category this season. With every little edge mattering deeper you go into the playoffs, Houston’s small steps backward could end up having large consequences.
Baltimore Orioles
Odds to make WS: 21% | Odds to win WS: 8%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 1-2
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: For a little while, it looked like the Orioles might be able to surpass Atlanta for the best overall record in baseball. While that didn’t happen, it still speaks volumes about how far Baltimore has come in a very short time — they’re the only team in MLB history to go from losing 110 games (2021) to winning at least 100 (2023) within a three-year span. The O’s are the AL’s team to beat, at least in terms of seeding, and that means they could be on a Fall Classic collision course with the Braves. If it happens, Baltimore would come armed with a deep lineup (six hitters with a wRC+ of 112 or better), a staff led by ace Kyle Bradish — one of the AL’s top starters — and a bullpen that ranked sixth in ERA.
Why they can’t: Most pressing on Baltimore’s list of anxieties is the absence of closer Félix Bautista, who went on the IL with elbow discomfort last month and will miss the postseason with Tommy John surgery. Losing Bautista and his sparkling 1.48 ERA hurts a relief corps that is arguably the Orioles’ greatest strength. Beyond that, the O’s are admittedly not in the Braves’ stratosphere if we look at the advanced stats; while only three games separate Atlanta from Baltimore in the actual standings, there’s a 14-game gap if we look at records predicted from BaseRuns, a metric that tries to filter the luck out of a team’s performance. (This is why FanGraphs is becoming infamous for doubting the Orioles’ chances.) For seamheads at least, the Orioles beating the Braves in the World Series would be a pretty sizable upset.
Texas Rangers
Odds to make WS: 15% | Odds to win WS: 6%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 1-2
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: Despite their up-and-down roller coaster of a season, Texas has the tools to beat Atlanta at its own game. During the regular season, the Rangers ranked third in home runs and in slugging percentage (behind the Braves and Dodgers), so Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García and company can mash with the game’s best. Texas also ranked fourth in rotation WAR; even though Max Scherzer’s postseason status remains murky, you couldn’t do much better than Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning as far as postseason starters go.
Why they can’t: It’s hard to shake the feeling that we still don’t fully know what the Rangers’ ceiling is. They emerged as a breakout early in the season, winning as much with depth as with the star power they had assembled over the past few offseasons. When all of those players slumped in late August and early September, it seemed to reveal cracks in Texas’ formula, but they righted the ship just as quickly. Maybe that’s a testament to the leadership of three-time championship manager Bruce Bochy, but it also makes the Rangers one of the postseason’s most unpredictable squads.
Tampa Bay Rays
Odds to make WS: 14% | Odds to win WS: 6%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 1-2
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: Since making the World Series in 2020, the Rays have kept getting better, finishing second only to Atlanta in total WAR this season. Tampa Bay’s lineup actually had more hitters with a 120 wRC+ or higher (seven) than Atlanta’s (six), and the Rays finished with more WAR from both their starting and relief pitchers than the Braves. While Rays-Braves is not the most likely of the potential World Series matchups — as the No. 4 seed, the Rays must play an extra series, which dings their odds — it’s very possible that Tampa Bay would give Atlanta the most trouble of any AL contender.
Why they can’t: One big caveat around all stats from the 2023 Rays’ regular season — including that figure about Tampa Bay’s lineup depth — is that they include the production of shortstop Wander Franco, who leads the Rays in WAR but hasn’t played since mid-August because of an alleged improper relationship with a minor. Without Franco, the Rays have gone 28-15, somewhat proving that the rest of this roster is plenty talented, but that still doesn’t mean their full-season numbers are totally representative of who they’ll be in October.
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds to make WS: 13% | Odds to win WS: 5%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 3-0
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: What does it say about the Blue Jays’ wealth of talent that some of their best players — looking at you, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer — can have confusingly down seasons while a guy who finished third in last season’s Cy Young voting (Alek Manoah) can completely melt down, and yet Toronto still makes the playoffs and has decent title odds? The truth is that the Jays still have a lineup that few opposing pitchers relish facing in a series, plus a staff that only has two active members with a worse-than-average ERA. Toronto swept Atlanta head-to-head in May, and it would surprise nobody if they hassled the Braves in a rematch of the 1992 World Series if such a matchup comes to pass.
Why they can’t: Like Texas, it’s hard to trust Toronto to show up and play to its potential in these playoffs. The other two times the Blue Jays made the postseason with their current core, they were swept in 2020 by the Rays and swept in 2022 by the Mariners, with the decisive loss in the latter series coming in a game Toronto had led 8-1. Toronto has the talent to hang with an elite team such as Atlanta, but the 89-win Blue Jays played only one month at better than a 96-win pace — which is the pace that Atlanta (104 wins), Baltimore (101), Los Angeles (100) and Tampa Bay (99) maintained over the entire season.
Minnesota Twins
Odds to make WS: 8% | Odds to win WS: 3%
2023 Record vs. Atlanta: 0-3
When they might meet: World Series
Why they can beat the Braves: Barring the late Kirby Puckett making history’s most unexpected return and reprising his starring role from the 1991 World Series, the Twins are going to have to win with pitching, pitching and more pitching. Led by Pablo López and Sonny Gray, Minnesota got the most value from its starting rotation of any team, and the second-most production from its pitchers overall. That could prove a particular advantage against a team like Atlanta, whose hitting was its best strength according to WAR. The Twins’ offense is also sneakily solid when at full strength, ranking sixth in wRC+, thanks to six different hitters posting a 116 mark or better.
Why they can’t: On top of having the worst record of any division winner — making Minnesota an automatic underdog every step of the way — injuries have piled up badly for the Twins’ lineup recently: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo are all on the IL with unclear status for the playoffs. None were playing like stars before going down, save for Lewis (who had a 1.022 OPS in September), but all would need to be big contributors for the Twins to make a deep postseason run. Otherwise, this team will quickly find out that there are limits to how far a stellar starting rotation can take you. And then there’s the unavoidable matter of Minnesota’s postseason track record. Dating back to Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS, the Twins have lost an astonishing 18 consecutive playoff games, the longest such losing streak in major North American men’s pro sports history.
A Final Word About the World Series
Let’s assess what might be the Braves’ most dangerous opponent of all: themselves. No team is perfect, and even great ones can find ways to lose. (Just ask those 1990s-era Atlanta squads.) So what might derail these Braves en route to fulfilling their championship promise?
One of the biggest factors could simply be injuries among the pitching staff; on the eve of the postseason, 12 Atlanta pitchers are on either the 15-day or 60-day IL. Otherwise, the Braves face the same bogeyman as every MLB favorite: Chaos. The odds might favor Atlanta over any other team, but field collectively has a 77% chance to knock off Atlanta at some point, those 104 regular-season wins be damned. Historically, the best team in baseball loses far more often than it wins. But with a 38-25 cumulative record (or 97.7 wins per 162) against all playoff teams during the regular season, Atlanta has a better shot to overcome October’s pandemonium than most.
Filed under: Baseball
Original story: The Atlanta Braves Are the World Series Champs — Until They Aren’t