Great question! I think it's a combination of 5,000 simulations still containing some variation in the results (since him NOT breaking the record is solidly more likely than him breaking it) and the fact that he can't break or tie it on days after he already broke or tied it. So if you notice in the chart, the odds of tying tend to go down on days after the odds of breaking it the previous day spike up. It's one of those things where he can not break/tie it on a particular day for multiple reasons -- he hasn't gotten enough goals yet, OR he has gotten too many goals.
Why does Ovi's odds go DOWN from one game to the next a few times (notably March 9th to 11th)? Strength of opponent?
Great question! I think it's a combination of 5,000 simulations still containing some variation in the results (since him NOT breaking the record is solidly more likely than him breaking it) and the fact that he can't break or tie it on days after he already broke or tied it. So if you notice in the chart, the odds of tying tend to go down on days after the odds of breaking it the previous day spike up. It's one of those things where he can not break/tie it on a particular day for multiple reasons -- he hasn't gotten enough goals yet, OR he has gotten too many goals.