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Happy Friday — we’ve made it to the end of another sports week. It’s a bit of a weird vibe today, as we head into the biggest weekend in motorsports (with the Indy 500 sharing the spotlight with NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 and the return of Formula 1 in Montreal) right on the heels of Thursday’s shocking news that legendary driver Kyle Busch died of an illness at age 41. We’ll have more on “Rowdy” below. But the rest of the sports world presses on, and on the hardwood we saw the New York Knicks take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Cavs to close in on a trip to the NBA Finals. Can they cash in on their 88% series win probability? We’ll also get a pivotal Game 3 between the Thunder and Spurs tonight, the start of a holiday weekend of action that will surely reshape the NBA and NHL playoffs significantly by the next time we’re in your inbox on Tuesday:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (5/22)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder (45%) at Spurs (55%),* Game 3 (Series tied 1-1) - 8:30 p.m. (NBC) - OKC 60% to win series
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights (35%) at Avalanche (65%), Game 2 (VGK leads 1-0) - 8 p.m. (ESPN) - COL 54% to win series
⚾ MLB: Rays (42%) at Yankees (58%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Guardians (37%) at Phillies (63%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers (51%) at Brewers (49%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries (31%) at Fever (69%) - 7:30 p.m. (ION)
⚽ NWSL: Boston Legacy FC (47%) vs. Seattle Reign FC (29%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
⛳ Golf: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson - Scottie Scheffler 26% to win
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers
Saturday (5/23)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Knicks (45%) at Cavaliers (55%), Game 3 (NYK leads 2-0) - 8 p.m. (ABC) - NYK 88% to win series
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens (34%) at Hurricanes (66%), Game 2 (MTL leads 1-0) - 7 p.m. (TNT) - CAR 55% to win series
⚾ MLB: Rays (52%) at Yankees (48%) - 1:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers (54%) at Brewers (46%) - 7:15 p.m. (FOX)
🏀 WNBA: Sparks (34%) at Aces (66%) - 8 p.m. (CBS)
⚽ Women’s Champions League Final: Barcelona (76%) vs. Lyon (17%) - 12 p.m. (DAZN) 🚨
⛳ Golf: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers
🥊 Boxing: Oleksandr Usyk (94%) vs. Rico Verhoeven (6%), WBC heavyweight title - 5 p.m. (DAZN PPV) 🚨
Sunday (5/24)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder (45%) at Spurs (55%), Game 4 - 8 p.m. (NBC)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Avalanche (59%) at Golden Knights (41%), Game 3 - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
⚾ MLB: Guardians (48%) at Phillies (52%) - 1:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Wings (45%) at Liberty (55%) - 3:30 p.m. (NBC)
⚽ Premier League: Manchester City (75%) vs. Aston Villa (11%) - 11 a.m. (USA/Peacock) - Final day of the EPL season
⛳ Golf: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s (Jannik Sinner 72% to win) and women’s (Aryna Sabalenka 26% to win) first round
🏁 IndyCar: 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500, Alex Palou 26% to win - 12:30 p.m. (FOX)
🏁 Formula 1: Lenovo Canadian Grand Prix, George Russell 32% to win - 4 p.m. (ESPN)
🏁 NASCAR: Coca-Cola 600, Denny Hamlin 19% to win - 6 p.m. (Prime Video)
Monday (5/25) - Memorial Day 💐
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Knicks (51%) at Cavaliers (49%), Game 4 - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes (46%) at Canadiens (54%), Game 3 - 8 p.m. (TNT)
⚾ MLB: Cardinals at Brewers - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Royals - 3:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Padres - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Portland at New York - 8 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 WNBA: Sun at Valkyries - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
⚽ German Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 (28%) vs. VfL Wolfsburg (49%) - 2:30 p.m. - Promotion/Relegation Playoff 🚨
🎾 Tennis: French Open, first round
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Mismatches, huh?
If there’s one lesson to glean from the opening games of the NHL’s conference finals, it’s to never underestimate hockey’s penchant for the unpredictable.
Going into the proceedings, we wrote that both the East (Carolina vs. Montreal) and West (Colorado vs. Vegas) finals were big mismatches on paper, between a pair of favorites that had scarcely lost all postseason and a couple of underdogs that only got this far between some combination of easy paths, insanely late coaching changes, and Game 7 devil magic.
But through a game in each series, the underdogs looked like they very much belonged.
On Wednesday, the Golden Knights led 2-0 after two periods, opening their lead to 3-0 in the third before resisting the Avs’ comeback bid to seal a 4-2 victory. And then, last night, Montreal blitzed Carolina early with four unanswered goals in the first period and put the Canes away with a pair of insurance goals in the third. Just like that, both of our big pre-series favorites — which seemed destined for a Stanley Cup collision — were down 1-0.
As a result, the new prediction market odds have cooled off some on Colorado and Carolina’s Cup chances, though they remain the favorites — both to win each individual series and the Cup overall:
In a certain way, that makes sense. We know that Game 1 of a hockey series is less important than contests later on. And in terms of playing style, it’s not clear either upset was sustainable. Neither underdog controlled play in Game 1 (Vegas had only 36% of the scoring chances, with Montreal little better at 39%), but goalies Carter Hart (VEG) and Jakub Dobeš (MTL) decisively outplayed their respective counterparts (Scott Wedgewood and Frederik Andersen), which proved the difference — as it so often does.
Can that persist from here? The market isn’t necessarily convinced yet. But it’s worth pointing out that, for now, the teams with the most wins (nine apiece) in a postseason featuring the heavily favored Canes and Avs are actually… Montreal and Vegas.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
RIP Rowdy
It’s always huge, tragic news whenever an active athlete in a given sport passes away — even players who exist at the margins of the league. But when a figure titanic enough to be in the conversation of all-time greats dies during his career, it hits that much differently. Kyle Busch was one of those titans in the NASCAR world, a multi-time series champion widely regarded among the most gifted (if also combative, and hilarious) drivers to ever sit behind a steering wheel. Simply put, it’s unthinkable to consider that the sport’s literal all-time leader in total wins across all three NASCAR national series — a tally he just added to last Friday — won’t be in the field at this weekend’s Coke 600, or ever again. Rest in peace, Rowdy.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Olivia Miles is doing something special” by Marisa Ingemi
🏒 “Did Carolina forget how to defend?” by Jack Han
⚾ “Grounding kwERA” by ritmica
⚾ “Why left handed baseball players are weird” by Trevor May
⚾ “Mel Ott and the Polo Grounds” by Pages From Baseball’s Past
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (5/26)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at Thunder, West final Game 5
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Avalanche at Golden Knights, West final Game 4
⚾ MLB: Rays at Orioles
🏀 WNBA: No games
⚽ International friendly: Nigeria vs. Zimbabwe
🎾 Tennis: French Open, first round
Wednesday (5/27)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers at Knicks, East final Game 5 (if necessary)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Canadiens, East final Game 4
⚾ MLB: Cardinals at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Mercury at Liberty
⚽ UEFA Conference League: Crystal Palace vs. Rayo Vallecano
🎾 Tennis: French Open, second round
Thursday (5/28)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder at Spurs, West final Game 6 (if necessary)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Avalanche, West final Game 5 (if necessary)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Red Sox
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Valkyries
⚽ International friendly: Egypt vs. Russia
🎾 Tennis: French Open, second round
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.