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Happy Friday, and the end is finally nigh for round 2 of the NHL and NBA playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights punched their ticket to the Western Conference final last night — and while the hoops schedule was quiet on Thursday, it will bounce back tonight with a pair of elimination games as the Cavs and Spurs try to finish off the Pistons and T-Wolves, respectively. That will mark the start to a jam-packed sports weekend that also sees the Montreal Canadiens (more on them below) try to put away the Buffalo Sabres Saturday, the 151st running of the Preakness Stakes (held at Laurel Park instead of Pimlico), and the PGA Championship — golf’s weirdo major — among other headline events. Here’s what we’re tracking amid all of that action:
🗓️ THE WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (5/15)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Pistons (39%) at Cavs (61%),* Game 6 (CLE leads 3-2) - 7 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs (66%) at T-Wolves (34%), Game 6 (SAS leads 3-2) - 9:30 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Phillies (45%) at Pirates (55%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Yankees (59%) at Mets (41%) - 7:15 p.m. (Apple TV+)
⚾ MLB: Royals (48%) at Cardinals (52%) - 8:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Padres (44%) at Mariners (56%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA: Mystics (23%) at Fever (77%) - 7:30 p.m. (ION)
🏀 WNBA: Sun (10%) at Aces (90%) - 7:30 p.m. (ION)
🏀 WNBA: Tempo (26%) at Sparks (74%) - 10 p.m. (ION)
⚽ Premier League: Aston Villa (42%) vs. Liverpool (34%) - 3 p.m. (Peacock)
⚽ NWSL: Current (72%) vs. Dash (11%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open, men’s semifinals (Jannik Sinner 82% to win)
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship (Aronimink Golf Club), Scottie Scheffler 27% to win
Saturday (5/16)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Sabres (39%) at Canadiens (61%), Game 6 (MTL leads 3-2) - 8 p.m. (ABC) 🚨
⚾ MLB: Royals (48%) at Cardinals (52%) - 2:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Yankees (55%) at Mets (45%) - 7:15 p.m. (FOX)
⚾ MLB: Padres (41%) at Mariners (59%) - 7:15 p.m. (FOX)
🏀 WNBA: No games
⚽ FA Cup Final: Chelsea (20%) vs. Manchester City (59%) - 10 a.m. (ESPN+)
🏇 Horse Racing: 151st Preakness Stakes (Iron Honor 9/2 to win) - 7:01 p.m. post time (NBC)
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open, women’s final (Coco Gauff 59% to win)
🥊 MVP MMA: Ronda Rousey (80%) vs. Gina Carano (20%) - 6 p.m. (Netflix)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen (52%) vs. Melquizael Costa (48%) - 8 p.m. (Paramount+)
Sunday (5/17)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavs at Pistons, Game 7 (if necessary) - 1 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨
🏀 NBA Playoffs: T-Wolves at Spurs, Game 7 (if necessary) - 1 p.m. (NBC) 🚨
⚾ MLB: Yankees (55%) at Mets (45%) - 1:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Cubs (57%) at White Sox (43%) - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Padres (42%) at Mariners (58%) - 7:20 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 WNBA: Aces (54%) at Dream (46%) - 1:30 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏀 WNBA: Storm (33%) at Fever (67%) - 6 p.m. (NBA TV)
⚽ Premier League: Manchester United (60%) vs. Nottingham Forest (19%) - 7:30 a.m. (Peacock)
⚽ Premier League: Newcastle (45%) vs. West Ham (30%) - 12:30 p.m. (USA Network)
🏁 NASCAR: All-Star Race (Dover Motor Speedway), Denny Hamlin 19% to win - 1 p.m. (FS1)
🏁 IndyCar: Indy 500 Qualifying (Pole Day/Fast Six) - 4 p.m. (NBC)
⛳ Golf: PGA Championship, final round
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open, men’s final
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Is the NBA’s parity streak in peril?
One of the weirdest subplots in basketball over the past decade has been the NBA’s sudden turn toward extreme parity. Ever since the Toronto Raptors knocked off the mighty Golden State Warriors in the 2019 finals, the league has seen seven different champs in seven years for the very first time in its history. This is significant because the NBA is traditionally the most dynastic of all the major men’s pro leagues — and it’s weird because this unprecedented stretch of parity comes on the heels of one of the least parity-driven eras in league history, when the Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers met in four straight NBA Finals from 2015-18 (itself a historical first).
Now the league is at a crossroads of sorts. The conference finals will feature at least two teams making it back for a second straight year — the Thunder and Knicks — with a third (Minnesota) being possible, if unlikely. (San Antonio has a 92% chance to beat the Wolves.) By that standard, we might be seeing signs of more consolidation at the top of the league, cracks showing in the parity era’s foundation:
Furthermore, five of the six potential conference finalists on the list above would, if they managed to go on to win the NBA title, extend the league’s streak of unique champions since 2019 to an even more unprecedented eight consecutive seasons.
The only catch? The defending champion OKC Thunder are still overwhelmingly favored to go back to back, thus ending the streak:
Though the number of counter-candidates is many, they add up to only ~40% title odds (give or take market fluctuations). That’s not nothing… and certainly there are reasons to think the Spurs and Knicks in particular could extend the parity streak.
But for now, we have to lean toward the run of unique champs probably ending, and maybe giving way to something more interesting — perhaps a multipolar NBA world where OKC is the dominant power, but other teams like Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs also beat them sometimes, forming a grand rivalry in the tradition of the Lakers and Celtics or LeBron James against a bunch of different teams and players. And if so, that would be yet another new direction for a league that has spent the past decade swinging wildly between dynasty and chaos.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Bien joué, les Canadiens
Powered by a dominant second-period surge and 3 points from captain Nick Suzuki, the Canadiens won Thursday night to take a 3-2 lead over the Sabres ahead of Saturday’s Game 6, thus bolstering the Stanley Cup chances for Canada’s last remaining team active in the 2026 playoffs. What makes Montreal’s run especially impressive, though, is the fact that they’ve overcome two of the league’s toughest factors along the way: the Habs are the NHL’s youngest team by average roster age, defying the hockey playoffs’ reputation as favoring grizzled veterans, and they’ve also faced the league’s toughest schedule by average opponent Elo rating (including the regular season and the playoffs):
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Fielding Independent Hitting: Does applying DIPS theory to hitting work like it does for pitching?” by ritmica
🏈 “The NFL schedule revealed some immediate betting opportunities” by Neil Greenberg
🏁 “How Ryan Blaney (and his many beards) became a prototypical Team Penske driver” by Nate Ryan
⚾ “The Newspaper Sports Page You Didn’t Realize You Missed” by Michael Weinreb
⚽ “The Soccer Journey No One Prepared Us For” by Melissa Jacobs and David Murray
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Monday (5/18)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No scheduled games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Sabres at Canadiens, Game 7 (if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB: Blue Jays at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Wings at Mystics
⚽ Premier League: Arsenal vs. Burnley
Tuesday (5/19)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No scheduled games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No scheduled games
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Padres
🏀 WNBA: Mercury at Tempo
⚽ Premier League: Chelsea vs. Tottenham
Wednesday (5/20)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No scheduled games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Avalanche, West final Game 1
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Fire
⚽ Europa League Final: Freiburg vs. Aston Villa 🚨
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.