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Happy Thursday! We’ve nearly made it to the end of another workweek, and with it we have also arrived at the start of the 2026 World Baseball Classic overnight and into this morning on the East Coast. The 20-team event will play out over the next few weeks to determine which nation is the world champion of baseball, and the teams and fans — especially those from outside of America — take it pretty seriously. We’ll have all of the history, odds, and narratives around the WBC below, but it bears pointing out that this event happened for the first time just 20 years ago — and now it is one of the most watched sporting events in the world by total viewership, while also injecting a welcome sense of stakes to the otherwise exhibition-laden spring training phase of the MLB preseason. So in case you can’t tell, we’re excited for the WBC! Hopefully it will deliver a dramatic ending like the previous edition did in 2023. Here’s where else we’re looking for drama in the world of sports today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
WBC:
⚾ Japan (90%) vs. Chinese Taipei (10%)* - 5 a.m. Friday (FS1)
⚾ Cuba (68%) vs. Panama (32%) - 11 a.m. Friday (FS2)
⚾ Netherlands (27%) vs. Venezuela (73%) - 12 p.m. Friday (Tubi)
NBA:
🏀 Warriors (24%) at Rockets (76%) - 7:30 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
🏀 Pistons (40%) at Spurs (60%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Raptors (32%) at T-Wolves (68%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Lakers (36%) at Nuggets (64%) - 10 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
NHL:
🏒 Sabres (51%) at Penguins (49%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒 Panthers (48%) at Blue Jackets (52%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Lightning (64%) at Jets (36%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Islanders (45%) at Kings (55%) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
College Hoops:
🏀 Michigan (79%) at Iowa (21%) - 8 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 Men’s conference tournaments
• First rounds: Metro Atlantic, Missouri Valley, West Coast
• Second rounds: None
• Quarterfinals: Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Summit League
• Third rounds: Sun Belt
🏀 Women’s conference tournaments
• First rounds: Metro Atlantic Athletic, West Coast
• Second rounds: Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC
• Quarterfinals: America East, ASUN, Big South, Ohio Valley, Southern, Summit League
• Third rounds: Sun Belt
Soccer:
⚽ Tottenham Hotspur (41%) vs. Crystal Palace (32%) - 3 p.m. (USA)
Tennis:
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Men’s: Carlos Alcaraz 44% to win; Women’s: Aryna Sabalenka 30% to win
Golf:
⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational (Scottie Scheffler 29% to win)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Around the world of baseball
The 2026 World Baseball Classic is officially underway as of this morning on the East Coast, with action beginning overnight between Chinese Taipei and Australia, and Czechia and South Korea. The defending champs, Japan, will play their first game at 5 a.m. ET Friday against Chinese Taipei in Tokyo, while Team USA will begin its journey in the group stage on Friday night, facing off with Brazil in Houston.
The WBC is a really interesting event, in the sense that it is baseball’s attempt at a “World Cup” featuring star MLB players, but it has been around only a fraction of the time (debuting in 2006) as soccer’s World Cup. (There was also an official Baseball World Cup previously, but it prohibited professionals from participating for most of its existence.) Initially, the WBC was seen by many American media members as a pointless sideshow before the MLB season, but it has grown over time to become a global TV ratings powerhouse, as mentioned above.
The most dominant team in the history of the WBC, by far, is Japan, with three titles, medals in every tournament, and roughly double the run differential of any other nation:
They also won the event the last time it was played, in 2023, as Shohei Ohtani struck out then teammate Mike Trout to win the game in an unbelievable battle of stars with the title on the line.
For its part, the US was formerly quite mediocre at the WBC, never finishing better than fourth place in any of the first three tournaments. But they turned things around quickly to win the title in 2017 — beating Japan 2-1 in the semifinals — and they went to the final before falling just short in 2023. Samurai Japan (yes, that’s what the team is called) versus Team USA has become one of the defining rivalries of the WBC in its short but evolving history.
This year, though, the prediction markets don’t necessarily see Japan as rivaling the US very much, despite being the defending champs and having all that historical success. Team USA is the favorite at over 50% to win, while Japan and the Dominican Republic are no better than tied for second place, with just over 20% odds each.
The US does have an absurdly stacked pitching staff and a deep lineup, so their status as favorites makes sense. But, given the history of this tournament — and given how much Japan’s players and fans care about winning it — it may also be worth remembering that you underestimate the Samurai at your own risk.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
The Holtz effect
One of college football’s great coaches, ambassadors, and master motivators, Lou Holtz, died Wednesday at the age of 89. Holtz will always be associated with Notre Dame, where he turned around an Irish program that had fallen on mediocre times (by its standards) under previous coach Gerry Faust in the early to mid-1980s, and built them back up to a national champion in 1988, going 12-0 and winning the Fiesta Bowl for the title. But Holtz was a turnaround specialist in more places than South Bend.
Across practically all of his career stops — at William & Mary, NC State, Arkansas, Minnesota, Notre Dame, and South Carolina — he was associated with his teams dramatically improving their Simple Rating System (SRS) scores over the first five seasons after he arrived, compared with the same span of seasons before he took over. On average, a Holtz-coached team was 7.1 rating points better in his first year than the year before his arrival, 6.6 points better per season over his first three years than the previous three years, and 3.9 points better over his first five years as coach than the preceding five years.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Ranking all 20 WBC teams, from the sure things to the Cinderellas to the seedlings” by Grant Brisbee
⚾ “The Hidden Insurance Rules Keeping MLB Stars Out Of The 2026 World Baseball Classic” by Joe Pompliano
🏈 “Home-field advantage in the NFL isn’t what it used to be” by Neil Greenberg
🏀 “Hornets and hope: The sudden rise of a long-dormant fandom” by Tommy Tomlinson
🏈 “Is This Really the Fastest Combine of All Time?” by Arif Hasan
🏁 “Let’s Match IndyCar Drivers With NASCAR Drivers” by NASCARCASM
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (3/6)
⚾ WBC: Japan vs. Chinese Taipei
⚾ WBC: United States vs. Brazil
🏀 NBA: Mavs at Celtics
🏀 NBA: Clippers at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Red Wings
🏀 MBB: Miami (OH) at Ohio
🏀 WBB: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC quarterfinals; Big East first round
⛳ Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells)
Saturday (3/7)
⚾ WBC: South Korea vs. Japan
⚾ WBC: Great Britain vs. United States
🏀 NBA: Magic at T-Wolves
🏀 NBA: Sixers at Hawks
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Capitals at Bruins
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Devils
🏒 NHL: Lightning at Maple Leafs
🏀 MBB: UNC at Duke
🏀 MBB: Vandy at Tennessee
🏀 WBB: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC semifinals; Big East quarterfinals
🏀 CBB: Ohio Valley men’s and women’s championships
⛳ Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells)
🏁 F1: Qatar Airways Australian GP
🏁 IndyCar: Good Ranchers 250 (Phoenix Raceway)
🥊 UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Sunday (3/8)
⚾ WBC: Australia vs. Japan
⚾ WBC: Netherlands vs. Dominican Republic
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Cavs
🏀 NBA: Knicks at Lakers
🏀 NBA: Rockets at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Wild at Avalanche
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Penguins
🏒 NHL: Red Wings at Devils
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Golden Knights
🏀 MBB: Michigan State at Michigan
🏀 MBB: ASUN, Big South, Missouri Valley, Summit League championships
🏀 WBB: Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 12, Big South, Big Ten, SEC, Southern, Summit League championships; Big East semifinals
⛳ Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells)
🏁 NASCAR: Straight Talk Wireless 500 (Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Arizona)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.