Greetings to you on this wonderful Wednesday in sports. We are midway through the first full week of the 2026 Winter Olympics, with plenty to discuss below about the winners, losers, and the nations that are doing best in the all-important medal table. (Congrats to Sweden’s mixed doubles curling team for adding a gold medal in that regard during their championship matchup with the Americans, which we broke down yesterday.) We’ve also got our eye on some basketball as the NBA approaches the All-Star break; we’ll tell you about an awards race that should maybe be closer than it appears in the prediction markets.* And of course, there’s plenty else to follow in the sports world at this busy moment on the calendar, so here’s what we’re watching out for today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
Olympics:
🏅 Event finals in luge (2x), figure skating, alpine skiing, freestyle skiing, biathlon, speed skating, and Nordic combined
🏅 Men’s 1,000m final (speed skating) - 12:30 p.m.
🏅 Women’s doubles final (luge) - 12:45 p.m.
🏅 Free dance final (figure skating) - 2:15 p.m.
🏅 Men’s doubles final (luge) - 6 p.m.
🏅 Women’s Super-G final (alpine skiing) - 5:30 a.m. Thursday
🏅 Men’s moguls final (freestyle skiing) - 6:15 a.m. Thursday
🏅 Men’s final (snowboard cross) - 7:45 a.m. Thursday
🥌 Chess On Ice:
🏅 Men’s round-robin, US vs. Czechia - 1:05 p.m.
🏅 Women’s round-robin, US vs. South Korea - 3:05 a.m. Thursday
🏅 Men’s round-robin, US vs. Switzerland - 8:05 a.m. Thursday
NBA:
🏀 Knicks (46%) at Sixers (54%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Pistons (54%) at Raptors (46%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Clippers (24%) at Rockets (76%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Thunder (70%) at Suns (30%) - 9 p.m.
🏀 Spurs (69%) at Warriors (31%) - 10 p.m.
College Hoops:
🏀 Virginia Tech (22%) at Clemson (78%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Washington (18%) at Iowa (82%) - 7:30 p.m. (WBB)
🏀 UCLA (89%) at Michigan State (11%) - 8 p.m. (WBB)
Soccer:
⚽ Manchester City (72%) vs. Fulham (12%) - 2:30 p.m. (EPL)
⚽ Aston Villa (50%) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (25%) - 2:30 p.m. (EPL)
⚽ Sunderland (21%) vs. Liverpool (56%) - 3:15 p.m. (EPL)
All listed times are Eastern.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Medal mettle
The Olympics are about the triumph of the human spirit in the face of adversity — years of sacrifice distilled into a few breathless minutes, when you discover just how far you can push the human body and mind. They’re about the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat; stories that transcend borders and politics.
But mainly, they’re about refreshing the medal table on Wikipedia every 12 seconds and aggressively sorting by gold to check whether your country has accumulated more shiny metal than someone else’s.
So far, the Norwegians are doing the best in that department, even as the Americans have zoomed up the leaderboard in the past few days. Here’s a chronological look at total cumulative medals by country at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Games thus far, as of the early action on Wednesday:
Team USA had its best day of the Olympics thus far on Tuesday, winning five total medals — though none of them were gold. (The Cory/Korey mixed doubles curling duo fell short against Sweden in their championship game.) But the Americans were still unable to gain ground on Norway, which piled up six medals, including three golds, to extend its lead in the overall medal table as action was getting underway on Wednesday.
(Shoutout to Sweden as well for getting four medals on Tuesday, including the first podium sweep of the 2026 games — when gold, silver, and bronze in the women’s cross-country skiing sprint went to Swedes, the first time that had ever been done.)
As a result of all this, Norway extended its prediction market odds of having the most total medals to 79% on Wednesday morning, and especially boosted its odds of having the most gold medals specifically to a whopping 93%:
The US does have some outstanding events on the calendar where it’s the gold medal favorites, including men’s figure skating with Quad God Ilia Malinin and the absolute wagon that is the American women’s hockey team. But Norway is the defining nation of the Winter Olympics for a reason, and when you come for the king of the medal table, you’d best not miss.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Cooper vs. Kon
The 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year race was always supposed to be a foregone conclusion — No. 1 overall draft pick Cooper Flagg was one of the more hyped prospects the league had seen in recent memory (2023 top pick Victor Wembanyama notwithstanding), and the rest of the top picks in the draft all had their question marks. And, to be clear, the prediction markets still think Flagg is a heavy favorite to win the award. But should he be? Kon Knueppel, Flagg’s college teammate at Duke, is making an interesting case of his own for the award, especially when we judge the duo by their advanced metrics:
Flagg is the more well-rounded player at this point, with better passing, rebounding, and defensive numbers. But Knueppel has scored more points per possession with far more efficiency, especially as a shooter, and overall performance metrics such as my LAKER ratings (which use a combination of a player’s individual stats and their team’s on-court performance to estimate their effect on team point differential) suggest he’s had the greater overall impact on winning basketball when he’s in the game. That probably won’t be enough to move the needle away from Flagg’s assumed Rookie of the Year advantage, but it should set us up for a fun friendly rivalry between the two former roommates for years to come.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “Is that...regulation?! How three cases are going to shape regulation going forward” by Griffin Olah
🏀 “The NBA Trade Deadline Was Deeply Weird” by me
🏁 “Top 34 NASCAR Cup Series Prospects for 2026” by NASCAR Probabilities
🏀 “The Year of the Freshmen: We haven’t seen a Freshman class this good in...ever?” by Sean Beney
⚾ “MLB’s New Streaming Plan: This is progress?” by Daniel Evensen
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (2/12)
🏅 OLY: Event finals in snowboarding (2x), short-track speed skating (2x), luge, alpine skiing, freestyle skiing, speed skating, and cross-country skiing
🏀 NBA: Bucks at Thunder
🏀 WBB: TCU at Baylor
🏀 WBB: Texas at Vanderbilt
⚽ EPL: Brentford vs. Arsenal
⚽ Copa del Rey: Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona, First Leg
🏁 NASCAR: Duels at Daytona
⛳ Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Friday (2/13)
🏅 OLY: Event finals in snowboarding (2x), biathlon, cross-country skiing, figure skating, skeleton, and speed skating
🏀 NBA: All-Star Break (February 13 to 18) begins
🏀 NBA: All-Star Celebrity Game
🏀 NBA: Rising Stars Championship
🏀 MBB: Michigan State at Wisconsin
⛳ Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Saturday (2/14)
🏅 OLY: Event finals in alpine skiing, biathlon, cross-country skiing, freestyle skiing, short-track speed skating, skeleton, ski jumping, and speed skating
🏀 NBA: All-Star Saturday (3-Point Contest, Shooting Stars, Slam Dunk Contest)
🏀 MBB: Clemson at Duke
🏀 MBB: Kansas at Iowa State
🏀 MBB: Kentucky at Florida
🏀 MBB: Texas Tech at Arizona
🏀 WBB: South Carolina at LSU
⛳ Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.