How the Diamondbacks Stunned the Phillies
How the Diamondbacks Stunned the Phillies
Philadelphia was favored throughout the NLCS, but Arizona pulled off a most improbable comeback to punch its World Series ticket.
The National League’s entry in the World Series is set, and it’s a team few saw coming — either before the season, or even just a few days ago.
The Arizona Diamondbacks won the National League pennant Tuesday night by shocking the favored Philadelphia Phillies at their own ballpark, a place where Philly had been 6-0 in the postseason with a +31 run differential before losing Games 6 and 7 there. Until locking up the series, there was never a moment from game to game when the D-backs weren’t underdogs, according to the playoff odds. And yet, Arizona was still standing in the end.
How did the Diamondbacks do it? (Or, from Philadelphia’s perspective, how did the Phillies fumble a bag that seemed like it was meant to be theirs?)
Arizona got more aggressive as it turned the NLCS around, striking first in both Games 6 and 7 and putting the early pressure on the Phillies. Like he has been all season long, outfielder Corbin Carroll was the team’s bellwether: In Games 1-5, he hit .105 with a .296 OPS and zero of his trademark stolen bases. In Games 6-7, he hit .500 with a .944 OPS and had a pair of steals. The Diamondbacks as a whole followed his lead, going from a .577 OPS and just one total steal in the series’ first five games to a .796 OPS and eight steals in the final pair of contests — including four in Game 7.
The D-backs flipped their script of poor starting pitching as well, with Merrill Kelly outdueling Aaron Nola and Brandon Pfaadt getting the better of Ranger Suarez in the series’ final two games. Then, after posting a 5.49 ERA in Games 1-5, Arizona’s bullpen didn’t allow a single run in nine innings over Games 6 and 7. Every weakness that seemed to doom the Diamondbacks suddenly turned into a strength as the series shifted in their favor.
At the same time, the late-series Phillies bore little resemblance to the team that early on appeared to be steamrolling its way to a second straight World Series appearance. Improbably, the same Philadelphia lineup that belted 10 home runs in Games 1-5 got just one in Games 6-7 (Alec Bohm’s game-tying blast in the second inning on Tuesday). Overall, Philly hit .175 in the NLCS’ final two games, with a slugging percentage that dropped 243 points (!) versus the first five games.
As they produced just three total runs at home in those final two games, Philly hitters struck out three times as often as they walked, chased 37% of pitches outside the zone and appeared to be pressing to recapture the homer-happy form that had carried them for much of the postseason to that point. (Their flyball rate was actually higher in Games 6-7 than Games 1-5, 37% to 26%.) Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos went a combined 1-for-20 in that pair of losses, a statistic that would have been unthinkable when the trio was raking earlier in the playoffs.
Once the dust settled, the Diamondbacks had pulled off one of the most stunning upset wins in recent postseason memory, rallying from series win probabilities that sat in the teens after multiple games. And at the same time, the Phillies were left wondering how a World Series appearance that once had the air of inevitability slipped through their hands. They’ll have all offseason to contemplate that, while Arizona gets ready for the Texas Rangers in the Fall Classic.
Filed under: Baseball