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Hello, and welcome to Tuesday in sports. We’re still processing what happened last night, which may end up being a game basketball fans will remember forever, in a “where-were-you-when” type of way: Victor Wembanyama powered the San Antonio Spurs to a Game 1 victory on the road, in double overtime against the favored Oklahoma City Thunder to tip off the Western Conference finals, with 41 points and 24 rebounds in a dominating performance. We’ll have more on Wemby’s big night below — and how it changed the odds in the West — but suffice it to say that we could be in a new NBA era, ahead of schedule. We’re also in a new phase of the NHL playoff calendar, with the Montreal Canadiens surviving the Buffalo Sabres in OT of Monday’s Game 7 to advance to the East final. We’ll break down the odds there in tomorrow’s newsletter, but here’s what we’re watching for in tonight’s action:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Cavaliers (30%) at Knicks (70%),* Game 1 - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 No games
MLB:
⚾ Braves (57%) at Marlins (43%) - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Blue Jays (44%) at Yankees (56%) - 7:05 p.m. (TBS)
⚾ Dodgers (59%) at Padres (41%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
WNBA:
🏀 Tempo (26%) at Mercury (74%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
Soccer:
⚽ Premier League: Bournemouth (22%) vs. Manchester City (60%) - 2:30 p.m. (Peacock) - Note: City are down to just 15% odds to win the EPL over Arsenal (86%)
⚽ Premier League: Chelsea (50%) vs. Tottenham (25%) - 3:15 p.m. (Peacock/NBCSN) - Note: Spurs still have an 8% relegation probability
Tennis:
🎾 French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers (main bracket begins May 24)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Wemby’s West
As mentioned earlier, it was a special night in the NBA on Monday, the likes of which we may all end up remembering for a very long time. Certain games have that quality to them — the feeling of watching a paradigm shift right in front of us — and Wembanyama’s performance versus OKC recalled the one LeBron James had against the Pistons in the 2007 East final, in which he scored 25 consecutive points to effectively will the Cavs to victory in double OT. Though James was already a household name by then, that game signaled that the league was now playing on his terms, something we may also be experiencing with Wemby in real time.
The comparison is more than just superficial or nostalgic: according to Basketball-Reference’s Game Score metric, Wembanyama just surpassed James in that fabled Detroit game for the best performance by a player aged 22 or younger in an NBA conference finals contest.
What made Wemby’s game particularly impressive was that he and the Spurs absorbed the best the mighty Thunder had to offer while handing them their first loss of the postseason. Despite trailing the vast majority of the contest, OKC fought back to force OT and even led several times in the extra frame. But the Spurs always seemed to have an answer, most notably when Wemby muscled his way to the hoop to score a go-ahead bucket with 11 seconds left in regulation, or when he drilled an absurd logo 3 to tie the first overtime with 26 seconds left, leaving everyone in the arena speechless.
So, where does that leave us now? Prediction markets are showing this series is effectively a toss-up — which speaks to both the respect OKC still commands despite losing home-court advantage (remember our chart about the importance of NBA Game 1s!) but also the fact that, between Wemby’s ability to take over and the Spurs’ proven ability to beat OKC head-to-head, traders are pricing in the very real chance that the Thunder’s back-to-back championship bid ends at the hands of an even greater rising force.
All we can do from here is wait for tomorrow night’s Game 2 (8:30 p.m. on NBC/Peacock) to see what this potential all-time classic of a series has in store next.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Double duty
One of the literal craziest accomplishments to pursue in motorsports (or all of sports, really) involves driving 1,100 miles in the same day, between participating in both the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 — with the 428-mile flight from Indy to Charlotte also thrown in for good measure in between. It’s something Katherine Legge will attempt to do this Sunday, trying to become the 13th driver to attempt what’s known as “Double Duty” on Memorial Day weekend, the fourth to actually finish both races, and the first woman to go for the feat.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Wilt Chamberlain would be transcendent in today’s NBA as we watch the rebirth of the big man” by Shamus Clancy
🏁 “George Russell’s Championship Experience Could Be Key Against Antonelli” by Formula Reports
🏒 “The Anaheim Ducks got a taste of their future” by Brendan Farrell
🏀 “Thunder vs. Spurs is the NBA’s first true post-Splash Bros dynasty war” by Daniel Hardee
🏈 “Rest matters in the NFL — just probably less than you think” by Neil Greenberg
🏈 “The NFL’s TV Talks Are Even More Perilous Than They Look” by Jacob Feldman and Eben Novy-Williams
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (5/20)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at Thunder, West final Game 2 (SA leads 1-0)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Avalanche, West final Game 1 (Series tied 0-0)
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Fire at Fever
⚽ Europa League Final: Freiburg vs. Aston Villa 🚨
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers
Thursday (5/21)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers at Knicks, East final Game 2
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Hurricanes, East final Game 1 (Series tied 0-0)
⚾ MLB: Blue Jays at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Liberty
⚽ Liga BBVA MX: Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM
⛳ Golf: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (TPC Craig Ranch - McKinney, TX)
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers
Friday (5/22)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder at Spurs, West final Game 3
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Avalanche, West final Game 2
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Fever
⚽ NWSL: Boston Legacy FC vs. Seattle Reign FC
⛳ Golf: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
🎾 Tennis: French Open, men’s and women’s qualifiers
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.