Handicapping the Final Surge to the MLB Postseason

Here are the favorites, longshots, and must-win games to watch over the final weeks of baseball’s regular season.

With just under two weeks remaining in MLB’s regular season, seven teams are within plus-or-minus one game of their league’s final wild-card spot — and six teams have between 35% and 65% playoff odds. To help make sense of who has the inside track at securing the final berths, let’s look at the probabilities, schedule strengths, and other pros and cons for teams that have a realistic shot in the wild-card mix.

American League

The lock: Tampa Bay Rays (~100% playoff odds)

Nine and a half games clear of the No. 3 wild card spot, with 11 games left to play, Tampa Bay doesn’t have much to worry about before the field gets set for October. The Rays’ biggest concern is whether they can make up their 2.5-game deficit against the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East — which would grant them the all-important first-round bye in the playoffs. It’s a longshot (12%), but still possible.

The wild-card favorites: Toronto Blue Jays (83%), Texas Rangers (62%)

Texas and Toronto have been through their ups and downs recently: After getting obliterated by the division-rival Houston Astros, the Rangers’ playoff odds briefly dipped to a season-low 40%, then rebounded with a four-game series sweep at the Blue Jays — whose own odds faltered, until a sweep of their own against the Boston Red Sox. With all of that sorted out, each team has at least a 60% chance to make the playoffs.

Both teams will face their share of tough competition down the stretch. Toronto has MLB’s fourth-hardest remaining schedule, based on average opponent Elo ratings (a measure of each team’s quality based on results, margin of victory, game locations, etc.). It’s a slate highlighted by two series against the Rays and two against the non-playoff-bound but still above-.500 New York Yankees. And while Texas gets more of the Red Sox plus the miserable L.A. Angels, it will also have seven high-stakes matchups against the fellow wild-card hopeful Seattle Mariners, four of which come on the road. Plus, it will be without the services of Max Scherzer (arm injury) for at least the rest of the regular season.

The underdog: Seattle Mariners (62%)

Seattle has a bit more working against it than either Toronto or even Texas, with whom the Mariners are tied in the standings. The Rangers are better on paper, with a clearly superior run differential so far this season (+149 versus +97), and they have a 5-1 head-to-head record against the Mariners for the purposes of tiebreakers. The Mariners also sit a game behind the Blue Jays despite owning the better run differential (Toronto is +60) and the tiebreaker. While Texas recently righted its ship, the Mariners have lost seven of their past 10 games and 12 of 20.

But Seattle also has an easier remaining schedule (14th), thanks to a series against the dreadful Oakland A’s. And Julio Rodriguez has continued his second-half surge with a .908 OPS over the past three weeks. Even though the Mariners are only a little better than a coin flip in the playoff odds, they do control their own destiny via head-to-head games against the Rangers (see below).

Key series to watch: Texas at Seattle, Sept. 28-Oct. 1

There’s a decent chance the AL’s final wild-card slot comes down to the outcome of this four-game Seattle homestand against Texas.

National League

The lock: Philadelphia Phillies (99% playoff odds)

Relative to their AL counterpart in the No. 1 wild-card spot, the Phillies may seem less secure than the Rays. They’re only up four games on the cut line, and they have the rest of their current three-game series at Atlanta left to play. But including that matchup, 10 of Philly’s 12 remaining games are against Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets teams that sit well below .500. Besides, the Phillies are a far better team on paper (according to measures like run differential) than any of the other teams in the wild-card mix, save for possibly the Chicago Cubs. It would be unlikely for them to blow this lead in the final two weeks.

The wild-card favorites: Arizona Diamondbacks (56%), Chicago Cubs (50%)

Despite a negative run differential this season, Arizona is in firmer shape than most NL hopefuls. A good recent run (18-12 in their past 30 games) has led to a half-game lead over everyone except Philadelphia, and the D-backs play MLB’s 14th-easiest remaining schedule. Their road trips (at the Yankees and Chicago White Sox) are relatively manageable, and their season will conclude with a three-game series at home against a Houston team that is a 67% favorite to wrap up a top-two seed and might not have much to play for.

Two weeks ago, the Cubs (and their then-94% playoff odds) might have been among the locks here. But that was before Chicago lost five straight and eight of 10, landing them in a wild-card tie with a Cincinnati team that plays a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way. Now, Chicago’s path will likely involve necessary wins in a six-game road trip to end the season against Milwaukee and Atlanta. The good news? Those teams might be locked into their seeds by then as well. And moreover, this Cubs team has much more talent than its record suggests, so they are very capable of getting back on track.

The underdogs: Cincinnati Reds (46%), Miami Marlins (39%), San Francisco Giants (9%)

Cincinnati sits in a tie for the NL’s final wild-card spot, and it plays the easiest schedule of any postseason hopeful — sixth-easiest in all of MLB, in fact. But the Reds are also only a little better than a .500 team (16-14) in their past 20 games, their -38 run differential this season is tied with Miami for the worst of any team in this wild-card mix, and their tiebreaker profile is mixed. (Cincy has a game in Chicago, but they’re tied head-to-head with Miami and have a worse intradivision record.) Plus, the Reds just lost Graham Ashcraft, its second-best starter by WAR, to a season-ending injury. All of this explains why Cincinnati is more likely to miss the playoffs than make it.

The Marlins and Giants are in worse shape, however. Yes, Miami is riding the momentum of a recent sweep over the powerhouse Atlanta Braves, and the only winning team they face from here on are the Milwaukee Brewers. But, statistically, Miami is a worse team than the Cubs, Giants or D-backs, and they recently lost ace Sandy Alcantara due to a sprained UCL. Meanwhile, San Francisco is in a prolonged slump (18 losses in its past 30 games) and, most importantly, the Giants play the toughest remaining schedule in all of baseball, with a home-and-home against the Dodgers, a trip to Arizona, and a homestand against the Padres to close out the season. That will make it tough to overcome a two-game deficit and leapfrog three teams in the process.

Key series to watch: Astros at D-backs/Cubs at Brewers, Sept. 29-Oct. 1

Unlike in the AL, there are no head-to-head matchups left between the biggest wild card contenders. (Apologies to the quick Giants-Diamondbacks two-gamer this week.) But we could end up with a very interesting set of series playing out at the same time. While the Marlins and Reds get to end their seasons at the lowly Pirates (No. 24 in Elo) and Cardinals (No. 22), respectively, the Diamondbacks host the No. 5 Astros and the Cubs visit the No. 8 Brewers. As previously mentioned, so much of these dynamics could be upended by which teams have something to play for, but there’s also a chance Arizona and Chicago will have must-win scenarios in the regular season’s final weekend.

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Filed under: Baseball

Original story: Handicapping the Final Surge to the MLB Postseason