Happy Groundhog Day, everyone, as we head into the final week before Super Bowl LX and the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. You know, one of the things I like about prediction markets is that, for any given event happening in the world, if you’re wondering if it has a market attached to it — yes, it probably does. So of course people were trading on whether the world’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, would see his shadow today, with the Polymarket odds settling at a level around 66% for “Yes” after some wild fluctuations over the weekend. And indeed, the furry little rodent saw his shadow this morning, which means six more weeks of winter.
What does any of this have to do with sports? Well, since 2010, if you picked the NFC to win the Super Bowl in years where Phil saw his shadow and the AFC to win when he didn’t, you would have correctly predicted the winner a whopping 75% of the time! So today apparently brought good news for the Seattle Seahawks — and clearly that is picking advice you can take to the bank (or at least to your underground burrow). Don’t worry, we’ll have more legitimate things to say about predicting the Super Bowl below, and in the meantime, here’s what’s happening in sports today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
NBA:
🏀 T-Wolves (72%) at Grizzlies (28%)* - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Sixers (45%) at Clippers (55%) - 10 p.m.
Hockey:
🏒 Sabres (49%) at Panthers (51%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 Jets (43%) at Stars (57%) - 8:30 p.m.
🏒 Red Wings (36%) at Avalanche (64%) - 9 p.m.
College Hoops:
🏀 Kansas (34%) at Texas Tech (66%) - 9 p.m.
All listed times are Eastern.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Everything — even the Super Bowl spread — is relative
As mentioned above, it’s the last week before Super Bowl Sunday, and that is traditionally one of the prime weeks of the year for folks to make wagers, place money on their prognostications, etc. (if they are so inclined). But the lines people are picking against also have a deeply fascinating history that might tell us something about how Sunday’s game will go.
In previous eras of the Super Bowl, it was not uncommon to see one team be favored by at least a touchdown, if not much more. Through Super Bowl XLII in 2008, when the Patriots were favored by 12.5 points over the Giants, exactly half (21 of 42) of all editions of the Big Game saw the favorite carry a betting line of 7 or more points, while a third of favorites were slated to win by double digits. Since then, however, not a single Super Bowl favorite has had a pregame spread of 7 points or greater (much less been favored by 10 or more).
Beyond that, 16 of the 17 Super Bowls since 2008 have had a spread of 5 points or less, and 11 of 17 have been set at 3 points or less. The average Super Bowl favorite’s edge in the 2020s is just 2.4 points, compared with 3.2 in the 2010s, 7.1 in the 2000s, and a whopping 10.9 in the 1990s!
Were the oddsmakers simply scared off by the Patriots’ shocking upset loss in 2008, one of several high-profile defeats for big favorites in Super Bowl history? Perhaps. But also, the teams in the Super Bowl have gotten a lot more evenly matched in recent years, and the average margin of the games themselves has narrowed as well after a stretch of massive blowouts in the 1980s and ’90s. (From 1984-95, the average Super Bowl was decided by 23 points, with only two games in that 12-year span decided by fewer than 13.)
Against all of that, the Seahawks’ 4.5-point edge over the Patriots in this year’s odds is actually surprisingly large by recent standards. It’s the first time since the Pats and Eagles in 2018 that the spread was greater than 4 points, and it’s tied for the largest spread in a Super Bowl since the Steelers were favored by 6.5 over the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. Of course, if you think that figure for Seattle is too high (or too low), you can trade on alternate spreads as well, looking for odds that might be more or less favorable than the main spread:
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
The youngest Career Grand Slam winners
Over the weekend, the Australian Open wrapped up with a pair of final matches that were well worth the wait. On the women’s side, underdog Elena Rybakina bore down late to hold off world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and secure her second career major title. And on the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz overcame a first-set loss to defeat Novak Djokovic for his seventh career major, joining a club that contains John McEnroe and others. Even more notably, Alcaraz’s Aussie Open win secured him the coveted Career Grand Slam, as he had previously won each of the French and US Opens and Wimbledon. With that, he became the youngest men’s player ever to capture all four Slam titles in his career. Here’s a look at the youngest Career Slam winners for men and women, based on the age they were during the year they capped off the accomplishment:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “1 Trade Target for Every Contender” by Tom Haberstroh
🏈 “Going Rogue: Players who found trouble the week of the Super Bowl” by Brian Lennon
🎾 “Alcaraz’s Torrid Pace” by Christopher Clarey
🏈 “The Kwesi Konundrum: Why Did It Play Out Like This?” by Arif Hasan
🏀 “The Trade ... one year later” by Marc Stein
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (2/3)
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Magic at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Sabres at Lightning
🏈 NFL: NFC vs. AFC (Pro Bowl Games)
⚽ Soccer: Arsenal vs. Chelsea, second leg (Carabao Cup)
Wednesday (2/4)
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Rockets
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Knicks
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Panthers
🏀 WBB: Maryland at Michigan State
⚽ Soccer: Manchester City vs. Newcastle United, second leg (Carabao Cup)
Thursday (2/5)
🏀 NBA: Hornets at Rockets
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Suns
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Lightning (enjoy it — this will be your last NHL action for 20 days during the Olympics)
🏀 WBB: Tennessee at Georgia
🏀 WBB: Vanderbilt at Kentucky
🏀 WBB: Duke at Louisville
🏀 WBB: LSU at Texas
🏀 WBB: Ohio State at Washington
🏀 WBB: Ole Miss at Alabama
⛳ Golf: WM Phoenix Open
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.