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Oct 2Liked by Neil Paine

Last year, Kyle Shanahan compared Darnold (then a 49er backup) to Steve Young, "I mean, Steve Young took a while to get going, and he's one of the best quarterbacks of all time. I don't like to compare anyone to Steve, cause of how good he is, but why can't Sam be like that? He's got that type of ability. He is that type of person." That quote was very funny last year on all the hot take shows...less so now it appears.

Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur are increasing further the market value of the offensive head coach from the McVay tree. If Darnold keeps going and given Malik Willis' surprising performance in Green Bay, demand will be sky high for guys like Liam Cohen. Still waiting on the 30 for 30 regarding all the future HCs on the Washington staff in 2013.

It's been said for Purdy and Mayfield (and rumblings even now around Kingsbury for Daniels), but you have to wonder how much of QB success is actually the system? Watching Green Bay and Minnesota this year, you have to imagine teams will be trying to figure that out...and hiring every McVay assistant again.

If the sample grows for Darnold, the Vikings will soon have a monumental decision in a few months...do they extend Darnold and sit McCarthy ala Jordan Love? The betting money today says "no" but real life is often different. I can't imagine a team walking away from a 27 year old high performing QB who will be relatively cheap to extend to play an unproven rookie in other than a backup role. McConnell didn't elevate Cousins to the level of Darnold...some of this is Darnold as Shanahan said last year. Too much downside risk for the front office. If Minnesota gets into the Playoffs, gotta believe McCarthy is carrying a clipboard for a few...hopefully without that ridiculous face paint...

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I mean, I am hesitant to declare a Steve Young comparison proven right off of 4 games, lol, but it certainly does show that QBs can be reclaimed by the right coach in the right system.

But then again, just as often, these reclamation projects fail... Where is Josh Rosen now? Will Zach Wilson, Mac Jones or Trey Lance ever start again? (Or Bryce Young for that matter?) If it is about recycling former highly regarded QBs with better coaching the second (or third or fourth) time around, you'd think we'd have more than just a few case studies in that beyond Mayfield and a few early games from Willis and Darnold this season.

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Oct 2Liked by Neil Paine

To be clear, Kyle was not saying Young/Darnold were comparable - just analogous.

The problem with looking for use cases as a proof of concept, is that the system is structured to not identify them. It's an irrational limited market whose outcomes are not logical, let alone predictive. See recent expensive extensions to mediocre QBs who haven't won anything and are regressing along with their teams.

If a QB fails early in a bad situation, they rarely get a real 2nd look - ever. Head coaches and GM's are incentivized to move on to something new to keep the fan base at ease. Turnover feeds it even more. Failure is an orphan, particularly when it's somebody else's failure.

With colleges putting out 5-6 new 1st round QBs each year, not visiting the scratch and dent sale is easy and better for career longevity. Telling people that Bo Nix is the answer precludes any real look at Wilson and buys the HC a couple of years.

Let's remember, there were early rumblings coming out of Eagan this summer that McCarthy might start immediately or no later than week 4. Meaning, even the Vikings were not smart about what they had in their own building. Minnesota, like all NFL teams proves Winston Churchill right...they can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.

You'll never find the next Sam Darnold if you never look for them. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

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Oct 2Liked by Neil Paine

Sacks and Sack Yards should be green for Jayden in Table 1😉

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Yes, good call! That's fixed now. :)

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