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Welcome to Tuesday, where we’re still waiting for the NFL preseason to begin for real as every training-camp snap threatens to swing a position battle. We’ll dig into the handful of Week 1 QB jobs that are still genuinely unsettled — looking at you, Cleveland, Atlanta and Minnesota — below, plus a breakdown for one of the strangest scoring plays baseball has seen in a while. (Which, if you know baseball’s penchant for the weird, is saying something.) Add in some big WNBA, MLB and Leagues Cup contests, and here’s what we’re watching today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Mariners (45%) at Yankees (55%)* - 7:05 p.m. (TBS)
⚾ Cubs (61%) at Nationals (39%) - 6:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Brewers (57%) at Padres (43%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 37% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Liberty (38%) at Fever (62%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Mystics (25%) at Aces (75%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Mercury (47%) at Sparks (53%) - 10 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 46% to win WNBA title
Soccer:
⚽ Leagues Cup: Pumas UNAM (18%) at Columbus (64%) - 7:30 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⚽ Leagues Cup: Vancouver (15%) at Tigres UANL (69%) - 10 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⚽ EPL Championship check-in: Arsenal 38% to win Premier League (New season starts 8/21)
⚽ MLS Championship check-in: Inter Miami 28% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL Championship check-in: Gotham FC 30% to win
Football:
🏈 Training Camps & Joint Practices (Preseason resumes Thursday)
🏈 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 17% to win NFL championship
🏈 College Football Playoff check-in: Notre Dame and Ohio State 14% to win national title
Tennis:
🎾 National Bank Open (Canadian Open) - Main Draw Round 1 - 11 a.m. (Tennis Channel / TC Plus) - Rafael Jodar 24% to win (men’s) / Iga Swiatek 42% to win (women’s)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Who’s QB1?
NFL training camps are in full swing — we even had (sort of) live game action last Thursday — so that means it’s also time for the annual late-summer rite of position battles for spots on each team’s depth chart. The majority of teams are settled at their most important position, quarterback, but a handful of QB competitions are open as the preseason is set to truly get underway later this week.
Naturally, that means there are also prediction markets around who will be under center to start the season when Week 1 rolls around:
In most of these cases, the favorite is still around or above 90% to open the season as QB1. For instance, Kirk Cousins is 89% to start for the Raiders because it seems like Las Vegas wants to bring along No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza at a more measured pace than throwing him into the fire immediately.
Some are also just a matter of health and injury availability. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is one of the league’s best QBs when healthy, but there’s a market — and thus, still some uncertainty — around his Week 1 status because he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered late last season. KC’s plan is for him to be ready to go right away, thus he has 93% odds, but they’re not quite 100% yet.
The battles with the greatest actual uncertainty, though, are in Cleveland, Atlanta and Minnesota.
Browns coach Todd Monken is alternating practice reps between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, both of whom have talent but also huge potential drawbacks. Traders reading the tea-leaves have been leaning more toward Watson in recent days, after the fight was effectively a toss-up a week ago. For the Falcons, Tua Tagovailoa has widened his edge over Michael Penix Jr. as time passes — but this is also a battle where everybody involved is also coming off injuries, so watch out. Finally, Minnesota has seen Kyler Murray as the consistent market favorite, but J.J. McCarthy has periodically narrowed the odds closer to 75-25 or 70-30 in Murray’s favor at moments this summer.
As exhibition games get underway, keep an eye on how those less-certain markets are moving — live preseason action has a habit of flipping narratives fast.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
4 outs = 1 run
One of the weirdest and most obscure baseball plays in recent memory happened in Monday’s Red Sox-Blue Jays game, so let’s break it all down: In the Top of the 7th inning, Boston had runners on first and third with 1 out. Batter Ceddanne Rafaela hit a fly ball to center field for the second out… except, the players on both teams acted like the inning was over, because the scoreboard erroneously showed 2 outs before the pitch. Toronto threw the ball back in and got the fourth (err, third) out at first base, seemingly ending the inning anyway. But upon consulting the replay officials in New York, the umpires in Toronto awarded Boston a run — despite the runner on third never tagging up, he crossed the plate before the final out was made at first, and by rule the play was officially recorded as a run-scoring, inning-ending double-play sacrifice fly with an overturned call via replay review. Got all that?
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾▶️ “The Brewers Aren’t Built for October” by Foolish Bailey
🏀 “The 76ers Are Probably Overrated” by Max Moacanin
⚾ “We Pretend Baseball Stars Matter More Than They Do” by Ethan Strauss
⚾ “Jeepers! Sweepers! Has the League Caught Up with Statcast’s Newest Pitch Already?” by Edward Egros
⚾ “Portable Baseball” by Daniel Evensen
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (8/12)
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Padres
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Fire
⚽ Leagues Cup: Toluca vs. FC Dallas
⚽ Leagues Cup: Sounders FC vs. Chivas Guadalajara
⚽ Leagues Cup: Inter Miami CF vs. Club León
Thursday (8/13)
⚾🌽 MLB: Phillies vs. Twins (Field of Dreams Game)
🏀 WNBA: Sparks at Liberty
⚽ Leagues Cup: Club América vs. Austin FC
⛳ FedEx Cup Playoffs: FedEx St. Jude Championship - Round 1
Friday (8/14)
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Wings at Fever
⚽ Soccer: NWSL: Gotham FC at KC Current
⛳ FedEx Cup Playoffs: FedEx St. Jude Championship - Round 2
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.