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Greetings on this Tuesday in sports — and if Monday’s supposed “break in the action” was any indication, we’re going to be due for real fireworks today. Aside from regular midseason action in leagues like the WNBA, all that was on yesterday’s calendar was the MLB Home Run Derby, with the World Cup on pause. But the Derby ended up delivering more than enough drama to carry the night all by itself… more on that below. Now, we get a potentially unforgettable soccer semifinal between France and Spain, plus the MLB All-Star Game itself — maybe the one All-Star Game in sports that actually still holds up — and plenty of WNBA and NBA Summer League, too, for the hoops sickos. With that in mind, here’s what we’re on the lookout for today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup semifinal: France (59%) vs. Spain (41%)* - 3 p.m. (FOX / Telemundo) 🚨
⚽ World Cup odds: France 39% to win the tournament
MLB:
⚾ 96th All-Star Game: American League (44%) at National League (56%), Citizens Bank Park - 8 p.m. (FOX)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 33% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Fire (52%) at Sun (48%) - 11 a.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Mystics (52%) at Tempo (48%) - 7 p.m. (WNBA League Pass / TSN)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 37% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 42%
🏀 Summer League: 76ers (60%) at Rockets (40%) - 4 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Summer League: Wizards (64%) at Bulls (36%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Summer League: Clippers (60%) at Lakers (40%) - 10 p.m. (Prime Video)
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France: Rest day - Tadej Pogacar 94% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Favored-nation status
The World Cup will roar back into action today, as the semifinal stage of the knockout bracket gets underway. And what a semifinal it will be: For the first time ever, the Top 4 teams in the FIFA rankings are the four World Cup semifinalists — and as we noted might happen last week, the combined Elo ratings of these “Final Four” teams makes this the strongest semifinal field in tournament history by a comfortable margin, sitting 51.7 Elo points above 2014 according to our harmonic-mean measure:
But now that the semifinal field is set, somebody’s gotta win this thing. Today, the first of the two semis will pit tournament favorite France — with superstars Kylian Mbappé (who should be OK after an injury scare against Morocco), Michael Olise, and Ousmane Dembélé — against a formidable Spanish side — led by, of course, teenage prodigy Lamine Yamal, but also a deep group of other great players including Pedro Porro, Rodri and Mikel Oyarzabal.
The prediction markets have France as about a 60-40 favorite, which is a testament to how dominant Les Bleus have been in the World Cup thus far. The French have won all six of their matches, scoring 16 goals — only Argentina (17) have more — and conceding just 2, none of which have come since the group-stage finale against Norway on June 26. Spain isn’t as strong offensively, but its defense — which has conceded just once all tournament, keeping them in play for the greatest defensive World Cup run ever (if they win) — could make this semi the proverbial battle between the unstoppable force and the immovable object.
Somewhat counterintuitively, Spain’s defense is so strong in part because they are very good at keeping possession of the ball. France’s attack is so good because of its elite attackers while its midfield is more-than-serviceable but not great at creating dangerous chances from long periods of possession. In other words, don’t be surprised if Spain sits on the ball while France waits for the perfect moment to set Mbappe, Olise, Dembélé et al loose.
The market sets the total over/under for goals at 2.5, which appears to suit France’s type of game more than Spain’s; four of France’s six matches have featured three or more goals, with Les Bleus winning them by a combined 13-2 margin. So a higher-scoring affair would seem to favor sending France on to its third consecutive appearance in the World Cup Final — equalling the accomplishments of West Germany (1982-90) and Brazil (1994-02) as the only teams to do that — and its fifth appearance in eight cycles, for that matter.
Whoever wins, though, the market is telling us that this France-Spain match might be the “real” Final anyway. Conditional on winning today, France would be a 66% favorite against the England-Argentina winner, while Spain would be installed at 53% to win Sunday:
Don’t tell the fans paying double the get-in price for England-Argentina, but they’re blowing their money on the lesser matchup!
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Air Jordan
As we alluded to above, the 2026 Home Run Derby gave us everything we could ask for, from homering hot-streaks to a classic Philadelphia crowd that cheered failures and booed successes. (We love you, Philly.) The final between Jordan Walker of the Cardinals and local Phillie favorite Kyle Schwarber saved the best for last, though. After Schwarber homered on six of his first eight swings, and then four of his final five — including clobbering a special last-swing ball to extend the round — it set the bar for Walker so high that the market gave Schwarber a 93.5% chance of winning. But after falling behind early, Walker stormed back with six consecutive homers (!) to close the round — four straight coming on do-or-die swings — to win what was arguably the greatest Derby in contest history:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “What Advanced Analytics Are Actually Saying About Jaylen Brown” by Max Moacanin
🎓 “What sports should your athletic department add next? Some advice” by Matt Brown
🏈 “The Wide Receiver Matrix” by Tyler Dunne
👀 “Where is Formula 1’s Viewership? Did Heated Rivalry Boost the NHL’s Viewership?” by Entertainment Strategy Guy
🏒 “As NHL Salaries Skyrocket, Players Becoming More Remote From Fans, Media” by Adrian Dater
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (7/15)
⚽ World Cup: Semifinal - England vs. Argentina 🚨
⚾ MLB: No games. (All-Star break)
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Fever
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 11
Thursday (7/16)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Wings
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 1 (Royal Birkdale)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 12
Friday (7/17)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Storm at Fever
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 2 (Royal Birkdale)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 13 (Dole to Belfort)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.