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Greetings on this wonderful Thursday! Hopefully your week is looking up like Victor Wembanyama’s MVP chances after the French phenom scored 41 points for the second consecutive game last night, part of a recent run that seems to be making a concerted late-season award push. “The best of all time, they have fought and grabbed everything they could grab early on in their career,” Wemby said Wednesday night. “If I want to make my spot among the greats, I’ve got to try to not miss any occasion to put my name up there.” While Oklahoma City’s reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, remains the prediction market* favorite at 77%, Wembanyama has eaten into his edge somewhat meaningfully over the past two weeks. With an eye on Wemby’s Spurs in action tonight in LA, here’s what’s happening now and over the weekend in sports — and with the markets closed for Good Friday, we’ll be right back in your inbox on Monday:
🗓️ THE (EARLY) WEEKEND DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
Thursday (4/2)
⚾ MLB: Mets (54%) at Giants (46%) - 9:45 p.m. (MLB Net)
🏀 NBA: Lakers (24%) at Thunder (76%) - 9:30 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 NBA: Spurs (61%) at Clippers (39%) - 10:30 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Bruins (60%) at Panthers (40%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 NHL: Predators (47%) at Kings (53%) - 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ Women’s Champions League: Real Madrid (6%) at Barcelona (89%) - 12:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio), Tommy Fleetwood 7% to win
Friday (4/3)
🏀 Women’s Final Four: UConn (76%) vs. South Carolina (24%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Women’s Final Four: Texas (57%) vs. UCLA (43%) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
⚾ MLB: Braves (53%) at D-Backs (47%) - 9:45 p.m. (Apple TV+)
🏀 NBA: Celtics (89%) at Bucks (11%) - 8 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Flyers (41%) at Islanders (59%) - 7 p.m. (NHL Net)
⚽ Ligue 1: Paris Saint-Germain (78%) vs. Toulouse (8%) - 2:45 p.m. (beIN SPORTS)
⚽ NWSL: Boston Legacy FC (36%) at San Diego Wave FC (40%) - 7 p.m. (NWSL+)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 5, Javokhir Sindarov 50% to win
Saturday (4/4)
🏀 Men’s Final Four: UConn (45%) vs. Illinois (55%) - 6:09 p.m. (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)
🏀 Men’s Final Four: Arizona (47%) vs. Michigan (53%) - 8:49 p.m. (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)
⚾ MLB: Cubs (50%) at Guardians (50%) - 7:15 p.m. (FOX)
🏀 NBA: Spurs (52%) at Nuggets (48%) - 3 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏒 NHL: Avalanche (54%) at Stars (46%) - 3 p.m. (ABC) (a perennial playoff preview)
⚽ MLS: Inter Miami (72%) at Austin FC (12%) - 7:30 p.m. (Apple TV)
⚽ NWSL: KC Current (47%) at Gotham FC (41%) - 4 p.m. (CBS)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open
🐎 Horse racing: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 6
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano (38%) vs. Chris Duncan (62%) - 8 p.m. (Paramount+)
🥊 Boxing: Deontay Wilder vs. Derek Chisora - 2 p.m. (DAZN)
Sunday (4/5) - 🐰 Happy Easter! 🥚
🏀 NCAA Women’s Championship (teams TBD)
⚾ MLB: Cardinals (38%) at Tigers (62%) - 7:20 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 NBA: Lakers (89%) at Mavericks (11%) - 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
🏒 NHL: Wild (51%) at Red Wings (49%) - 1 p.m. (TNT)
⚽ NWSL: Bay FC (28%) vs. Washington Spirit (49%) - 5 p.m. (ESPN2)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 7
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Four-gone conclusions?
The centerpiece of the weekend in sports, of course, will be the culmination of March Madness with the Final Fours for both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments. And there are a couple of decidedly different ways you can view the proceedings, which I think carry equal validity.
The first angle is to highlight the unusual level of certainty in both brackets. For instance, the women’s favorite, 38-0 UConn, has a roughly 60% chance to win the title on Sunday afternoon, nearly 4x the odds of any other team left in the field. And even against coach Dawn Staley’s South Carolina squad, a powerhouse program on a six-year Final Four streak that won two of the previous four national titles, the Huskies have a greater than 75% chance to advance to the title game on Friday night.
This would seem to indicate the outcome of the women’s Final Four is all but a fait accompli at this point — that it would take a major shock, like the one UConn suffered against Mississippi State on Morgan William’s buzzer-beater in 2017 (ending their 111-game winning streak), to avert the Huskies’ pursuit of destiny. And maybe that is true: they haven’t won by fewer than 14 points since November 21, 2025. Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd have been a dynamic duo in this tournament, with Blanca Quiñonez showing up as a huge X factor off the bench.
And on the men’s side, though there is no single overwhelming favorite like the UConn women, the prediction markets are sending the message loud and clear that they think Saturday night’s Arizona-Michigan battle is basically the de facto national title game. The winner of that contest will have a nearly 70% chance to beat the Illinois-UConn winner from the other semifinal earlier that evening.
At least both men’s Final Four games figure to be competitive, since the luck of the draw landed us with the two lesser-rated teams (the Huskies and Illini) playing each other on one side of the bracket, while the two higher-rated squads (Wildcats/Wolverines) will battle it out for the right to be that sizable title favorite. But it could result in a pretty lopsided and anticlimactic championship game Monday night.
Then again, there are also reasons to hope for more excitement on both sides than we might expect at first glance.
As we noted on Tuesday, this is also the most superpowered women’s Final Four in recent memory, with all No. 1 seeds for only the fifth time ever and the best collective power ratings for a Final Four since at least 2010. While UConn is a big part of that, so are Texas, UCLA, and South Carolina — and the Huskies have to beat two of those three to finish their title quest. So it ain’t over quite yet.
The UConn men also proved just last weekend how unpredictable even a “chalky” March Madness can be, when freshman Braylon Mullins hit a game-winning logo 3 before the buzzer to upset Duke, a team that had previously been among the heavy title favorites right alongside Arizona and Michigan. No matter which of those favorites advances to face which underdog on Monday, we can’t rule either of them out from pulling off another upset with the title on the line.
All of this is what makes both NCAA tournaments some of our favorite events on the sporting calendar in the first place: even when the odds seem to strongly point in one direction, there’s always just enough chaos lurking to make a mockery of those projections when it matters most.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Not-quite-full extension
It seems these days that contract extensions for young players are all the rage in MLB. Late last season, the Red Sox locked up top prospect Roman Anthony for eight years and $130 million, while the Cubs followed suit with Pete Crow-Armstrong (six years, $115 million) on the eve of the 2026 season. Then came this week’s news that the Mariners worked a similar deal with top prospect Colt Emerson while the Pirates were doing the same with Konnor Griffin. Of note: neither player has actually played a major-league game yet. And that’s the latest evolution of a team-building tactic that I called “MLB’s favorite contract cheat code” last year — what used to be a way to extract huge team-friendly discounts (by buying out arbitration years early) moved toward dangerously large commitments that could quickly turn into albatrosses. Now teams seem to have settled on an in-between strategy: fewer dollars and years, but for younger players than before.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⛳ “Previewing the 2026 Masters” by Data Golf
🏀 “300 seconds: A look UConn’s comeback, the Final Four since 1985, and how a lot can change in five years or five minutes.” by Chris Gallo
⚾ “Swinging, Fast and Slow: (Over) Reacting To Early 2026 Changes In Bat Speed” by Michael Cecchini
⚾ “Trading Reggie Jackson” by Paul White
🏈 “More Kvetching About An Awful Draft Class” by Mike Tanier
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Monday (4/6)
🏀 NCAA Men’s Championship (teams TBD)
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Blue Jays (World Series rematch!)
🏀 NBA: 76ers at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Predators at Kings
⚽ Serie A: Napoli vs. AC Milan
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 8
Tuesday (4/7)
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Giants
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Lakers
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Hurricanes
⚽ Champions League Quarterfinal: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 9
Wednesday (4/8)
⚾ MLB: Mariners at Rangers
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Clippers
🏒 NHL: Sabres at Rangers
⚽ Champions League Quarterfinal: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool
⛳ 2026 Masters Par 3 Contest
♟️ Chess: Candidates Tournament 2026, Round 10
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.