Domingo Germán's Perfect Game Was A Perfect Reminder That Baseball Is Weird As Hell

And that out-of-nowhere perfect games are nothing new.

Short post today, but I just had to write something about the perfect game that New York Yankees starter Domingo Germán threw last night. Perfect games are incredibly rare and incredibly cool; Germán’s was just the 22nd of the World Series era (since 1903), including both the regular season and postseason, and the first in MLB since King Félix Hernández did it on August 15, 2012, more than a decade earlier. Statistically, you are far more likely to see someone hit for the cycle, throw a no-hitter or an immaculate inning, or hit a HR on the first career pitch they saw than to witness a perfect game.

And yet, Germán’s perfecto was also a great illustration of how magically unpredictable perfection can be. As I noted last night, Germán was having a pretty terrible season going into his start against Oakland. He was suspended for using sticky substances in May, carried a negative Wins Above Replacement on the year, and had been lit up for 15 earned runs in 5⅓ innings over his previous 2 appearances. Even granting that he would be facing the horrendous Athletics, very little suggested Germán was due to allow zero baserunners over the course of an economical 99 pitches and 27 batters faced.

That’s the beauty of baseball — literally anything can happen on any given night. But we should have already known that from the list of pitchers who’ve completed the challenge of perfection. Here’s a plot of career WAR for all 22 perfect game-tossers of the World Series era, including a regression-based estimate for where Germán (who’s on pace for 5.4 career WAR through the end of his age-30 season) will end up by the time he’s done:

For every Cy Young or Randy Johnson on the list, there are more Germáns — or, even lower on the WAR ranking, Philip Humbers, Dallas Bradens and Charlie Robertsons. The median pitcher to throw a perfect game in the World Series era had 48.2 career WAR; for context, the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher is in the 70-75 WAR range. There are plenty of very good names on the list — and I think Sandy Koufax is underrated by total WAR because it undersells how unbelievable he was at his peak (with three seasons of 9.5+ WAR in the span of four years from 1963-66) before retiring by age 31. But this list is decidedly not chock full of all-timers like we might expect from such a prestigious accomplishment.

Germán added to that sense, given how up-and-down his career has been (both on and off the field). But he also reminded us that, for one night at least, practically any MLB starter is capable of harnessing the full might of their stuff, command and skill, with perfection following.

Filed under: Baseball