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Happy Wednesday! We’ve officially reached the stage of the sports calendar where everything is converging all at once. Tuesday night brought another seismic shift to the NHL playoffs, as the Golden Knights completed a stunning sweep of the heavily favored Avalanche — turning what looked like Colorado’s coronation into one of the quickest collapses in recent postseason memory. Meanwhile, the US finalized its 26-man roster for the 2026 World Cup on Tuesday, to the usual chorus of second-guessing. And in the NBA, Oklahoma City reclaimed control of the Western Conference finals with a pivotal Game 5 win over San Antonio behind a huge bounce-back performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, putting the Thunder one victory away from the finals. We’ll get into all of that, plus a few other things catching our eye around the sports world, below:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 No games
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Hurricanes (59%) at Canadiens (41%),* Game 4 (CAR leads 2-1) - 8 p.m. (TNT) - CAR 81% to win the series
MLB:
⚾ Cardinals (42%) at Brewers (58%) - 1:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Rays (51%) at Orioles (49%) - 6:35 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ Braves (49%) at Red Sox (51%) - 6:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
WNBA:
🏀 Mercury (33%) at Liberty (67%) - 7 p.m. (USA Network)
🏀 Dream (56%) at Lynx (44%) - 9 p.m. (USA Network)
Soccer:
⚽ UEFA Conference League Final: Crystal Palace (46%) vs. Rayo Vallecano (23%) - 3 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) 🚨
Tennis:
🎾 French Open, men’s (Jannik Sinner 75% to win) and women’s (Aryna Sabalenka 26% to win) second round
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Rolling Thunder
As mentioned above, the most pivotal game of the entire NBA season may have transpired Tuesday night, with Oklahoma City hosting San Antonio for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals with the series tied up 2-2. If we consult our handy chart from a few weeks ago, the historical difference between winning and losing Game 5 in that situation during the NBA playoffs is 68.8 points of series win probability (84.4% if you win, versus 15.6% if you lose). The only game and scenario with more of a swing if you win versus lose is Game 7, which obviously swings things by 100 points (100% minus 0%).
So let’s just say this was effectively a must-win game for either team — and especially for OKC, which would be facing elimination on the road in Game 6 if they didn’t take care of business. But after Gilgeous-Alexander was held to an uncharacteristic 19 points (compared with 33 for his San Antonio counterpart, Victor Wembanyama), SGA turned the tables, outscoring Wemby 32-20 as the Thunder took a double-digit lead at the half and kept the Spurs at bay from there.
As things stand now, Tuesday’s victory has Oklahoma City very much in the driver’s seat to win their second consecutive NBA championship — at least, if you believe the prediction markets:
As we alluded to yesterday, the market still doesn’t really believe in the Knicks despite their incredible postseason point differential, setting their title odds against whoever wins the West at just 29%. (This actually is lower than it was yesterday, since the market saw the Spurs as more beatable for NY than the Thunder.) And with the win, the Thunder took command of the West finals — though it’s worth noting that OKC’s market odds (76%) are lower than the all-time conversion rate for teams up 3-2, whether across all best-of-seven series (84%) or even in the conference finals (80%).
This would indicate that traders think the Thunder are more vulnerable — or the Spurs more dangerous — than the typical teams in a 3-2 series configuration. But Wemby and company will have to prove it as the series shifts back to San Antonio for a do-or-die Game 6 on Thursday night.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Shlitt happens
Cam Schlittler of the Yankees is on quite a tear right now. He currently leads the American League in Earned Run Average, wins, pitching Wins Above Replacement, and more — and combined with an injury to two-time defending award winner Tarik Skubal, plus a clearing of other contenders, he’s now the heavy AL Cy Young Award favorite, according to the prediction markets (see chart below). Surprisingly, this is uncommon for the 27-time world champs — the most decorated franchise in baseball history — because dominant, young homegrown pitchers have been rare in the Bronx. The franchise boasts only six Cy Young winners in its history, and just two (Gerrit Cole in 2023 and Roger Clemens in 2001) since 1978. But Cole and Clemens weren’t homegrown: they were veteran products of the Pirates and Red Sox, respectively, when each joined the Yankees. Schlittler, at just 25, would be a rare outlier for the Yankees — a local ace having one of the most dominant pitching seasons in team history.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Why is Everyone Scoring 100?” by Chris Gunther
⚾ “Nationals among MLB teams forcing us to rethink everything” by Neil Greenberg
⚽ “Eberechi Eze’s Sliding Doors Season Shows How Fast Football Careers Can Change” by David Skilling
⚽ “Stadium Tour: Inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium Before the World Cup” by FootballJo
🏈 “Early Down Play-Action Is Killing NFL Defenses (And How Coaches Are Fighting Back)” by Cody Alexander and Felix Johnson
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (5/28)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder at Spurs, West final Game 6 (OKC leads 3-2) 🚨
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Braves at Red Sox
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Valkyries
⚽ International friendly: Egypt vs. Russia
🎾 Tennis: French Open, second round
Friday (5/29)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Hurricanes, East final Game 5
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Mercury at Liberty
⚽ International friendly: Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar
🎾 Tennis: French Open, third round
Saturday (5/30)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at Thunder, Game 7 🚨
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Fire
⚽ UEFA Champions League Final: PSG vs. Arsenal 🚨
🎾 Tennis: French Open, third round
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.