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Happy Tuesday! Somehow, we are exactly one day away from the official start of baseball season, which is always a reality check moment on the sports calendar. It’s the time when you realize winter has truly receded, spring is in full swing, and the rhythms of the summer sports calendar (MLB in the background every night, playoffs in basketball and hockey, the WNBA season, tennis slams, golf majors, and, this year, even a World Cup) aren’t far away. But of course we still have college basketball, a quintessentially winter and early spring sport, to focus on, as well as the last vestiges of the NBA regular season — and so we’ll have a little bit on both in today’s newsletter, in addition to what we’ve got our eye on the rest of the day:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
NBA:
🏀 Magic (20%) at Cavs (80%)* - 8 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
🏀 Nuggets (68%) at Suns (32%) - 11 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
NHL:
🏒 Avalanche (59%) at Penguins (41%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Hurricanes (55%) at Canadiens (45%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Wild (39%) at Lightning (61%) - 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Soccer:
⚽ Women’s Champions League: Arsenal (45%) vs. Chelsea (29%) - 4 p.m. (Paramount+)
Tennis:
🎾 Miami Open, men’s round of 16 (Jannik Sinner 74% to win) and women’s quarterfinals (Aryna Sabalenka 43% to win)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Women’s hoops, out-Madnessing the men
As we talked about yesterday, the “Madness” in the men’s NCAA tournament bracket has felt a bit absent this year. While there have certainly been moments of fun chaos — and we did lose a No. 1 seed (Florida) early — the Sweet 16 almost entirely comprises high seeds for the third straight year. Even the underdogs who remain, like No. 9 Iowa and No. 11 Texas, are hardly Cinderellas: they’re power conference mainstays with giant athletic budgets.
Against that backdrop, it’s somewhat remarkable that the women’s tournament, long known as the far chalkier of the two NCAA tourneys, has given us a bit of drama along the lines of what we would usually expect on the men’s side.
We don’t want to overstate the case too much. The remaining women’s Sweet 16 teams are still mostly high seeds, and the cream of the crop are still absolutely dominating. All of the top seeds — South Carolina (54.5), Connecticut (45.5), Texas (42.0), and UCLA (36.0) — won their opening pair of games by at least 35 points per game, and a No. 2 seed (LSU) won by an average of 56! But in terms of seeds, the distribution of the men’s and women’s Sweet 16 brackets are very nearly identical, which was not at all true in the past:
That No. 10 seed you see in the women’s data? It’s the Virginia Cavaliers, which on Monday defeated No. 2 Iowa in a double-overtime thriller to become the first team in women’s tournament history to advance from the First Four play-in round all the way to the Sweet 16. That type of Cinderella run is so rare in the women’s tournament that they are already tied for the most wins in a single year (three) by a double-digit seeded team:
Additionally, our worries going into yesterday that each region’s Sweet 16 entrants would uniformly be the top 4 seeds proved unfounded: in addition to the Cavs’ win, we got upsets by No. 6 Notre Dame (over Ohio State) and No. 5 Kentucky (by 1 point over West Virginia). And No. 3 Louisville only narrowly avoided being knocked off by No. 6 Alabama by 1 point. The Madness is alive and well — just coming from an unlikely source.
That said, the prediction markets still have UConn listed as a heavy (65%) favorite to go undefeated en route to their second consecutive national title — and the rest of the favorites at or above 5% are all No. 1 seeds — so the lower seeds’ days in the tourney may certainly be numbered. But for a team like Virginia, just making it this far is a rare accomplishment.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Wemby-V-P?
In his third NBA season, Victor Wembanyama keeps improving. The 7-foot-4 San Antonio Spurs big man/extraterrestrial being is tracking for new career-best marks in points per 100 possessions, true shooting percentage, turnover avoidance, and rebounding rate, while also leading the league in block rate for the third consecutive season. People are taking note of just how good Wemby has gotten — and one of those people is, well, Wemby. Here’s what he said when asked about his MVP case on Monday:
“I have thought about [the MVP],” Wembanyama said. “I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I think I should lead the race. I’m trying to make sure that at the end of the season, there’s no debate.”
Unfortunately for Wemby, the prediction markets list him as a distant third in the odds, trailing both incumbent favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC and Lakers scoring machine Luka Dončić. But there’s no doubt that, someday soon enough, Wembanyama will be leading the MVP debate in a future season.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “First Start Pitch Count Analysis” by Jon A
🏈 “AFC Free Agent Progress Reports” by Mike Tanier
🏀 “Scrutinizing the standard: Plus a look at the Sweet 16.” by Chris Gallo
🏒 “The Carolina Hurricanes are still the Carolina Hurricanes — and that’s alright” by Brendan Farrell
⚾ “Mason Miller has been DOMINATING” by David Korn
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (3/25)
⚾ MLB Opening Day: Yankees at Giants
🏀 NBA: Hawks at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Rockets at T-Wolves
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Sabres
⚽ NWSL: Kansas City Current vs. Seattle Reign FC
🎾 Tennis: Miami Open, men’s and women’s quarterfinals
Thursday (3/26)
⚾ MLB: Diamondbacks at Dodgers
⚾ MLB: Pirates at Mets
🏀 NBA: Knicks at Hornets
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Golden Knights
🏀 Men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16:
🏀 2 Houston vs. 3 Illinois
🏀 1 Arizona vs. 4 Arkansas
🏀 2 Purdue vs. 11 Texas
⛳ Golf: Texas Children’s Houston Open
🎾 Tennis: Miami Open, men’s quarterfinals and women’s semifinals
Friday (3/27)
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Giants
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Diamondbacks
⚾ MLB: Guardians at Mariners
🏀 NBA: Hawks at Celtics
🏀 NBA: Mavs at Blazers
🏒 NHL: Red Wings at Sabres
🏀 Men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16:
🏀 1 Duke vs. 5 St. John’s
🏀 2 UConn vs. 3 Michigan State
🏀 Women’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16:
🏀 1 UConn vs. 4 North Carolina
🏀 2 LSU vs. 3 Duke
⛳ Golf: Texas Children’s Houston Open
🎾 Tennis: Miami Open, men’s quarterfinals and women’s semifinals
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.