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Hello and welcome to another week in sports! And it’s not just any week; it’s Championship Week, when the power conferences of men’s college basketball will have their tournaments to decide who will win the conference titles and automatically earn a place in the NCAA tournament. (Which, by the way, will have brackets ready to fill out when we talk to you this time next week.) So there will be a lot to take in — including a lot of midday hoops-watching — over the next handful of days, and we’ll have more below on all the conference favorites and angles to watch. Of course, we are also following the World Baseball Classic, which provided a fun opening weekend of action and is now quickly reaching crunch time for its group stage, so we’ll give an odds update there as well. And then the NHL, NBA, and soccer roll on, among other sports — shoutout to Paralympic curling! — we’re keeping an eye on this Monday:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
WBC:
⚾ Dominican Republic (95%) vs. Israel (5%)* - 12 p.m. (FS1)
⚾ Mexico (19%) vs. United States (81%) - 8 p.m. (FOX)
NBA:
🏀 76ers (15%) at Cavaliers (85%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Nuggets (29%) at Thunder (71%) - 7:30 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 Knicks (56%) at Clippers (44%) - 10 p.m. (Peacock)
NHL:
🏒 Kings (43%) vs. Blue Jackets (57%) - 4 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Mammoth (65%) vs. Blackhawks (35%) - 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
College Hoops:
🏀 Santa Clara (35%) vs. Saint Mary’s (65%) - 11:30 p.m. (ESPN2), WCC tournament semifinal
🏀 Villanova (1%) vs. UConn (99%) - 7 p.m. (Peacock), Women’s Big East tournament final
🏀 Men’s conference tournaments: SoCon, Sun Belt championships; CAA, Horizon, West Coast semifinals; Big Sky, Southland quarterfinals
🏀 Women’s conference tournaments: ASUN, Big East, MAAC, Sun Belt championships; Horizon, Mountain West, West Coast, America East semifinals; Northeast, Patriot League quarterfinals
Soccer:
⚽ FA Cup: West Ham United (32%) vs. Brentford (43%) - 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Tennis:
🎾 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) - Men’s: Carlos Alcaraz 54% to win; Women’s: Aryna Sabalenka 32% to win
Paralympics:
🏅 Event finals in Para alpine skiing (6x)
🏅 Competitions in Para ice hockey and wheelchair curling
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
One week till brackets
Sunday marked exactly one week to go until the NCAA selection show and the reveal of the men’s and women’s basketball brackets on March 15. But there’s still a lot of basketball between now and then — including the remaining conference tournaments, which are mostly wrapped for women’s power conferences but have mainly just involved small conferences on the men’s side so far. Here’s who has won to punch their tickets to The Big Dance as of Monday morning:
The last of the women’s power conferences — the Big East — will be settled this evening when UConn plays Villanova for the title. The Huskies are literally 99% favorites in the prediction markets, but I guess we’re saying Nova still has a chance.
Once that’s done, attention will shift to the rest of the women’s conferences to fill out the field of automatic bids, and the power conference men’s teams will take center stage. Here are the prediction market favorites to win the remaining men’s conference tournaments and secure bids to The Big Dance:
Heaviest among all the favorites is Duke in the ACC at 75% to win the conference crown, which makes sense: no ACC team has come within 13 points of the Blue Devils since they lost to North Carolina on February 7, and they’ve won their seven conference games in that span by an average of 25.7 points, an incredible show of domination. It seems unlikely that any of the conference’s other squads will be able to hang with freshman phenom Cam Boozer and co. in the ACC tourney.
Gonzaga is also a heavy favorite (67%) to win the West Coast, though they did lose to No. 2 favorite Saint Mary’s two Saturdays ago. And the rest of the major conferences are projected to be at least somewhat more competitive and/or uncertain. Florida, Michigan, and UConn are all at exactly 49% to win the SEC, Big Ten, and Big East, respectively — meaning they are actually more likely not to win than they are to cut down the nets in less than a week’s time.
Arizona is the least certain power conference favorite, at 41% to win the Big 12, since Houston is formidable and carries a 29% chance itself. Among other conferences that might send multiple teams to the brackets, Saint Louis is only a narrow favorite (37% to 34%) over VCU in the Atlantic 10, and Utah State has just a 27% chance to win the Mountain West tourney (versus 23% for San Diego State, 15% for New Mexico, and 13% for both Boise State and Grand Canyon).
Finally, continue keeping a close eye on the Mid-American Conference. There, the team that just finished an undefeated regular season (31-0 Miami of Ohio) is not even close to being the market favorite to win the conference: the RedHawks are at just 29%, trailing Akron at 53%. If Miami does lose, it would cause all hell to break loose for the selection committee, which would have to choose between sending a second MAC team to the NCAA field — which hasn’t happened in 27 years — or excluding one of just five teams in the past 35 years to post an undefeated regular season.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Classic climbers
The first weekend of the World Baseball Classic is in the books (plus Monday morning’s Korea-Australia result), so it’s worth looking at how the odds have changed, as we are about two-thirds of the way through pool play — well into the sorting stage that will determine who makes the knockouts and what seeds they will carry. The biggest gainer in the odds was the Dominican Republic, which jumped 4 points (to 22%) after a dominant start in Pool D, pulling even with Japan for the second-best odds in the field. Conversely, Japan saw its title probability dip slightly despite already clinching Pool C; while their advancement is secure, the market likely reacted to the rising stock of their potential knockout-round opponents. Meanwhile, the US remains the heavy favorite to win at 50%, though their odds went down by 2% as their group is looking quite dangerous. The Americans go into the next few days’ matchups with Mexico and Italy technically trailing them in the Pool B standings.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “The Tragedy of Tua Tagovailoa” by Luke Braun
🏈 “Ravens Trade for Maxx Crosby, Become a Super Bowl Favorite Overnight” by Nick Kehoe
🏀 “The Race for No. 1: Part IV: Cameron Boozer Takes the Top Spot” by James Barlowe
🏈 “The Ripple Effect: Mike Gundy” by Jack Walsh
🏀 “The Teams That Win in Different Ways (and Ones That Don’t)” by Derek Willis
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (3/10)
⚾ WBC: Canada vs. Puerto Rico
⚾ WBC: Italy vs. United States
🏀 NBA: Celtics vs. Spurs
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves vs. Lakers
🏒 NHL: Penguins vs. Hurricanes
🏒 NHL: Oilers vs. Avalanche
🏀 MBB: CAA, Horizon, MAAC, Northeast, West Coast championships; Big Sky, Southland semifinals; ACC, Big 12, Big Ten first rounds
🏀 WBB: Horizon, Mountain West, West Coast championships; Big Sky semifinals; Southland quarterfinals
⚽ Champions League: Barcelona vs. Newcastle
Wednesday (3/11)
⚾ WBC: Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela
⚾ WBC: Italy vs. Mexico
🏀 NBA: Nuggets vs. Rockets
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves vs. Clippers
🏒 NHL: Flyers vs. Capitals
🏒 NHL: Senators vs. Canadiens
🏀 MBB: Big Sky, Patriot League, Southland championships; ACC, Big 12, Big Ten second rounds; SEC, Big East first rounds
🏀 WBB: Big Sky championship; Southland semifinals; MAC, CUSA, MEAC, SWAC quarterfinals
⚽ Champions League: Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
⚽ Champions League: PSG vs. Chelsea
Thursday (3/12)
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: South Korea vs. Pool D winner
⚾ WBC Quarterfinal: Pool A runner-up vs. Pool B winner
🏀 NBA: Sixers at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Celtics at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Stars
🏀 MBB: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, Big West, MAC, WAC, CUSA, SWAC, and MEAC quarterfinals; Big Ten third round; SEC second round
🏀 WBB: Southland championship; Northeast and Patriot League semifinals; American, Big West, CUSA, MEAC, and SWAC quarterfinals; CAA second round; Missouri Valley first round
⛳ Golf: The Players Championship
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.