There's one that is burning for me that I wonder if it is not quietly baked into the odds you reference. Will Ohtani pitch in the postseason?
LA undoubtedly wanted no part of him pitching this year...in April. But, things change. He should be ready according to surgeons and might have had the expedited recovery "brace" procedure, but no one is sure. His agent has been tight lipped but said last December the surgery wasn't TJS...and has a faster recovery time. A May progress update from LA was very encouraging with him throwing again without setbacks.
They have a huge number of holes from injuries. If they miss at the trade deadline and some of their pitchers aren't stellar upon return (Kershaw, Buehler)...the Dodgers could be faced with a tough choice - pitch him sometime in the postseason or blow an entire expensive year with aging stars.
The trade deadline will be a very critical juncture for LA and possibly Ohtani. Keep an eye on that.
The reason I don't think they'd do that is that he's only in Year 1 of this crazy-deferred 10-year contract, so they'd potentially be risking his two-way contributions going forward (assuming that he isn't fully ready by then -- all of the reporting said he'd be ready by spring training 2025) when he already has been quite valuable as just a hitter in 2024. (8.8 WAR/162 pace this season purely as a batter, vs an average of 9.2 WAR/162 as a 2-way player the previous 3 years... not really very different at all, which is amazing.)
I completely agree with you that today, they have no intentions of doing this. However, life is funny in how it presents unexpected challenges that lead to previously unexpected decisions in pursuit of a goal. There are speed bumps that I mentioned for sure - trade deadline, performance of SPs coming off IL etc.
If those go poorly and Ohtani is medically cleared and wants to pitch...the calculus gets very complicated very quickly. What does waiting 4 months get you from a safety perspective if he is cleared? LA has an aging and expensive roster (particularly when you consider the savings from Ohtani's structure) - how long is their window effectively open with the key unexpected injuries this year and the East getting stronger? Friedman could be convinced their future is now.
We know that Ohtani can still hit (well) with the injury - as Harper did too. So, your downside risk here is pretty small. He won't be pitching a ton of innings, but will be high leverage as the betting markets move in response.
The parallel use case - and historic mistake and cautionary tale - was Washington not pitching Strasburg above a ridiculous arbitrary innings limit. That gained them nothing but might have cost them the World Series. An objective front office mistake in trading the unknown future for today.
Right now I'm with you - less than 50-50...but depending on how the season breaks, I would not be surprised by a discussion of it in September.
Thanks so much for this and the generous callout!! I'm still cautioned by my 1970s father telling me after a big baseball pitching win..."son, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn on occasion." As Peter Gabriel later said, "nothing fades as fast as the future...nothing clings like the past." Thanks so much again...I'll tell my Dad😉
There's one that is burning for me that I wonder if it is not quietly baked into the odds you reference. Will Ohtani pitch in the postseason?
LA undoubtedly wanted no part of him pitching this year...in April. But, things change. He should be ready according to surgeons and might have had the expedited recovery "brace" procedure, but no one is sure. His agent has been tight lipped but said last December the surgery wasn't TJS...and has a faster recovery time. A May progress update from LA was very encouraging with him throwing again without setbacks.
They have a huge number of holes from injuries. If they miss at the trade deadline and some of their pitchers aren't stellar upon return (Kershaw, Buehler)...the Dodgers could be faced with a tough choice - pitch him sometime in the postseason or blow an entire expensive year with aging stars.
The trade deadline will be a very critical juncture for LA and possibly Ohtani. Keep an eye on that.
The reason I don't think they'd do that is that he's only in Year 1 of this crazy-deferred 10-year contract, so they'd potentially be risking his two-way contributions going forward (assuming that he isn't fully ready by then -- all of the reporting said he'd be ready by spring training 2025) when he already has been quite valuable as just a hitter in 2024. (8.8 WAR/162 pace this season purely as a batter, vs an average of 9.2 WAR/162 as a 2-way player the previous 3 years... not really very different at all, which is amazing.)
I completely agree with you that today, they have no intentions of doing this. However, life is funny in how it presents unexpected challenges that lead to previously unexpected decisions in pursuit of a goal. There are speed bumps that I mentioned for sure - trade deadline, performance of SPs coming off IL etc.
If those go poorly and Ohtani is medically cleared and wants to pitch...the calculus gets very complicated very quickly. What does waiting 4 months get you from a safety perspective if he is cleared? LA has an aging and expensive roster (particularly when you consider the savings from Ohtani's structure) - how long is their window effectively open with the key unexpected injuries this year and the East getting stronger? Friedman could be convinced their future is now.
We know that Ohtani can still hit (well) with the injury - as Harper did too. So, your downside risk here is pretty small. He won't be pitching a ton of innings, but will be high leverage as the betting markets move in response.
The parallel use case - and historic mistake and cautionary tale - was Washington not pitching Strasburg above a ridiculous arbitrary innings limit. That gained them nothing but might have cost them the World Series. An objective front office mistake in trading the unknown future for today.
Right now I'm with you - less than 50-50...but depending on how the season breaks, I would not be surprised by a discussion of it in September.
Grant, you called this! https://twitter.com/billplunkettocr/status/1834744026806837285
Thanks so much for this and the generous callout!! I'm still cautioned by my 1970s father telling me after a big baseball pitching win..."son, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn on occasion." As Peter Gabriel later said, "nothing fades as fast as the future...nothing clings like the past." Thanks so much again...I'll tell my Dad😉