Brain Food: Why Zack Greinke is Having the Worst Season of Any Ex-Cy Young Winner Ever
It happens to the best of them: In his age 39 season, Greinke's trademark craftiness has abruptly left the building.
Zack Greinke’s reunion with the Kansas City Royals got off to a decent enough start last year. After more than a decade away from the franchise, the 2009 Cy Young Award winner returned with a better-than-average 3.68 ERA that belied his 4-9 record. But his homecoming has taken an unfortunate turn this season: Along with an inflated 5.34 ERA, Greinke currently carries a record of 1 win against 14 losses — the worst net W-L mark in baseball this season. (Teammate Jordan Lyles is just slightly better, at 4-15.)
For now, that’s also the most dismal record ever in a season by a former Cy Young-winning pitcher, surpassing Denny McLain’s 10-22 mark from 1971:
A lot of this has happened because the Royals are battling the dreadful Oakland A’s to be MLB’s lousiest team. It’s no coincidence that Greinke has the worst run support of any starter this season. Take away all of his decisions, and K.C. would still be 42-82 and still have the second-worst record in baseball.
But Greinke’s struggles also say something about the limits of how far a pitcher can get by on guile and experience these days.
Two years ago, I explained why I am such a fan of Greinke — from his sense of humor to his love of the eephus pitch. But another big component was that, in an age of fireballers, Greinke found success by out-thinking hitters rather than overpowering them. In the eight seasons with Statcast tracking data from 2015 through 2022, Greinke was MLB’s sixth-most valuable pitcher by Wins Above Replacement (with 30.7 WAR) despite never once ranking among the top half of pitchers in fastball velocity — and despite ranking among the bottom 15% five times.
Greinke’s formula was simple to explain, if difficult to execute: Throw strikes. Keep the ball in the park. Induce ground balls. Field your position well. Make sure the bases are clear whenever possible; pitch out of trouble if that doesn’t happen. Study tendencies — for example, Greinke pumped hanging sliders into the zone against Joey Votto because he knew Votto wouldn’t swing. Above all, be efficient.
But at age 39 this season, that formula hasn’t held up quite so well. With Greinke’s velocity, spin and strikeout rates each as low as they’ve ever been, his trademark craftiness can no longer compensate as much as it used to. While he still has the third-best walk rate of any pitcher, Greinke is giving up a career-worst 1.8 home runs per 9 innings, 13th-most of any pitcher. He is now below average at suppressing opponents’ exit velocity on batted balls, in addition to suffering one of his worst rates of stranding opposing runners on base.
In other words, each of the little things that allowed Greinke to succeed with his unconventional style has become less of an edge, with terrible consequences overall.
In light of all this — plus his expiring contract after the season — it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Greinke decides 2023 is his final year in MLB. It’s not fun or fair for anyone to be subjected to a 1-14 record, much less a future Hall of Famer. But it would also be a bummer if there’s one fewer pitcher attempting to survive the modern game with a sub-90 mph fastball, armed with his brain and his craft instead.
Brain Food is our new weekly serving of data that will make you a smarter sports fan. Have a tip for something you want me to write about? Email or tweet X me at npaine@themessenger.com or @Neil_Paine.
Filed under: Baseball
Original story: Why Zack Greinke is Having the Worst Season of Any Ex-Cy Young Winner Ever