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Happy Monday after a huge sports weekend that refused to end… almost literally. What started with World Cup quarterfinal wins by Spain, England and Argentina – joining France to set up the greatest on-paper “Final Four” in tournament history (for the first time ever, the semis feature the Top 4 in the FIFA rankings) – continued with Wimbledon victories for Linda Nosková and Jannik Sinner, plus the MLB draft, the Tour de France, big WNBA battles and baseball’s last business before the All-Star break (among other events). But the nightcap, for those bleary-eyed racing fans among us, was a rain-delayed NASCAR finish that produced thrills in Atlanta at roughly 2 a.m. in the East. Today, we’re on to a bit more calm — the World Cup and MLB regular season are on pause, though the Home Run Derby is tonight in Philly (more on that below):
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚽ World Cup odds: France 42% to win*
MLB:
⚾ Home Run Derby (Citizens Bank Park) - 8:00 p.m. (ESPN) - Kyle Schwarber 22% to win
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 35% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Sparks (26%) at Dream (74%) - 7:00 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Mercury (13%) at Lynx (87%) - 9:00 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 36% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 48%
🏀 Summer League: Mavericks (22%) at Grizzlies (78%) - 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Summer League: Bulls (63%) vs. Jazz (37%) - 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)
Cycling:
🚲 Tour de France: Rest day - Tadej Pogacar 94% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Derby Day
Everyone loves home runs, so the Home Run Derby is invariably one of the most fun events on the baseball calendar — and tonight’s proceedings at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia have the potential to be more fun than most, thanks to a combination of new twists and an ideal setting.
For one thing, there’s a new format to the HR Derby this year. Gone are the timers and the confusing bonus rounds based on hitting the ball past certain distance thresholds — but the new format is not simply a return to earlier rules, either. Instead of being given a certain number of “outs” (non-homer swings) to work with, batters will now have a fixed number of swings per round regardless of their outcome… unless they keep hitting HRs, in which case the round won’t end until they make an out.
This ought to make for a better slugging showcase than the frantic urgency of the previous format, in which batters were encouraged to swing as much as possible in 3 minutes — which made majestic HRs difficult to appreciate on TV and ended up favoring stamina as much as raw power. At the same time, though, batters might be tempted to take a bunch of pitches — not exactly must-see TV — with each swing being so precious. There is no perfect format for this kind of thing.
Just as much of a factor will be the park itself. Philly has always been a home run haven, but in recent years it has morphed into favoring just one side of the plate in that regard. Here’s a plot of the HR park factors for Citizens Bank Park since 2007, measuring how much of a boost it gives to homers (relative to a neutral park) overall, and for both lefty and righty hitters:
While earlier periods saw “The Bank” strike a balance between lefty and righty power, recent seasons have trended toward playing neutral for righties but giving a big boost to lefty HRs. With a +30% left-handed HR park factor over the past 3 seasons, Citizens Bank has the second-highest handedness-specific HR factor for any park to host the Derby since 2009 (trailing only Dodger Stadium for righties in 2022) and the most pro-lefty bias of any Derby park in that sample, full stop.
As luck (or planning) would have it, five of the eight competitors tonight hit left-handed, including hometown favorites Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper:
Of the Top 4 hitters in the prediction market odds, three are lefties (Schwarber, Munetaka Murakami and Jac Caglianone), with hot-hitting Junior Caminero of the Rays being the right-handed exception. But one name perhaps getting undervalued is Ben Rice of the Yankees — who not only hits from the “correct” side of the plate to take advantage of the park, but also has one of the contest’s highest rates of perfectly-hit balls per swing (trailing only Murakami and Schwarber), which ought to be a prized skill with the new format placing more emphasis on economical swingers.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Sinner-take-all
For a brief moment Sunday morning, it looked like the tennis world was in the midst of a paradigm shift. What once was considered a clean torch-passing from the longstanding Big Three of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic to the younger duo of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner — five titans who had won 17 straight Slams (and 34 of 36) going into Roland Garros earlier this year — seemed like it needed to make room for Alexander Zverev, who won the French Open and took the opening set from Sinner at Wimbledon. But Sinner proved better as the match progressed, winning each of the next three sets (7-6, 6-3, 6-4) to clinch his fifth career major win, locking Zverev (for now) out of the five-man club that has won 78 of the past 92 Slams (85%) over the previous 23 years:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “The HR Derby’s Lefties Are Poised to Break The Bank” by me
⚽ “Jude Bellingham Is Growing Into England’s Leader” by David Skilling
⚾ “How much have the Nationals’ bullpen woes cost them?” by Neil Greenberg
⚾ “Who Will Win the 2026 Home Run Derby?” by Edward Egros
🏈 “His Year: Chris Johnson 2009 / Remembering the fastest season the NFL has ever seen.” by Robbie Marriage
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (7/14)
⚽ World Cup: Semifinal - France vs. Spain 🚨
⚾ MLB: 96th All-Star Game (Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia)
🏀 WNBA: Mystics at Tempo
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 10
Wednesday (7/15)
⚽ World Cup: Semifinal - England vs. Argentina 🚨
⚾ MLB: No games. (All-Star break)
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Fever
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 11
Thursday (7/16)
⚽ World Cup: No games.
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Wings
⛳ Golf: British Open Championship, Round 1 (Royal Birkdale)
🚲 Cycling: Tour de France, Stage 12
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.