As league valuations soar, WNBA players are asking interesting questions about whether their compensation should reflect asset growth — not just revenue.
OK, first off, do we believe those attendance numbers in the graph?
Second, if Clark is the reason for the spike (or blip, if you believe the graph) in league interest, and she retires or keeps getting hurt, does anyone know for sure if the WNBA will keep those fans? Paying players based on a short-term increase in interest seems a poor idea. Good for the players to strike while the iron is hot, but any long-term agreement must be tied to (real) revenue numbers. My guess is that a lot of $ numbers around the WNBA have derived from PR as much as reality, and now that there may actually be money involved, people need to be careful to get out of that PR headspace and deal with actual dollar values.
The Fever are certainly a huge driver, but Golden State has outdrawn them (perhaps out of new-team novelty). And the Liberty are way up year-over-year as well. Overall, if you toss out Covid, the trajectory was relatively consistent until Caitlin Clark and her generation arrived on the scene.
To that point, I have to think the widespread and massive hikes in franchise valuations and expansion fees (which I think are most telling, since they aren't just the opinion of an outlet like Forbes or Sportico, but an amount new owners are willing to spend) suggest something more than just banking on Clark's star power, even if that is a big factor in growth. I can't imagine dropping $250 million on an expansion team in Detroit on the chance to have Clark come to town a time or 2 per season. They probably believe there are more Caitlin Clarks coming down the line.
Ok, that is interesting data. Still, the overall attendance levels for the last couple decades seem quite high for a league that nobody cared about until a year ago. I still expect that there was some data massaging going on, or possibly some entity (say, the NBA) bought a lot of tickets as a matter of course. Perhaps not. Personally, as I think I've noted before, the league's level of play has gone from absolutely unwatchable to pretty entertaining, actually, over the last 20 years. The overall data doesn't really jibe with that, either.
Is there data on college women's basketball attendance? Caitlin Clark, Angel Reece, and Paige Bueckers were seemingly drawing numbers as underclassmen precipitating their explosion into the W. I agree that the turnstile numbers seem suspect but I wonder if TV ratings might be better
Hey Neil - This will be fascinating to see how it progresses, but something in the data pops out from the link you shared in the other comment string that immediately raises a data question for me.
When looking at Low attendance for Away games in 2025, 8 of the 13 teams have the exact same figure which is 3,265. I didn’t dig further but perhaps it’s ATL’s home games causing the “issue” as ATL’s Low figure for Home games happens to be 3,265.
How is it possible so many games had the exact same Low figure? Is it ticket sales vs actual turnstile attendance?
I’m not sure if that observation and question matters in the long-run, but it is peculiar and raises at least a data question.
It would also be interesting to know if the attendance figures changed in definition since the league launched and if/how it changed over the years.
I’m not here taking a side on this discussion. I’m a free market capitalist and our country has CBA rules for all industries so the market will eventually get it right….this journey will have a lot of eyes on it.
OK, first off, do we believe those attendance numbers in the graph?
Second, if Clark is the reason for the spike (or blip, if you believe the graph) in league interest, and she retires or keeps getting hurt, does anyone know for sure if the WNBA will keep those fans? Paying players based on a short-term increase in interest seems a poor idea. Good for the players to strike while the iron is hot, but any long-term agreement must be tied to (real) revenue numbers. My guess is that a lot of $ numbers around the WNBA have derived from PR as much as reality, and now that there may actually be money involved, people need to be careful to get out of that PR headspace and deal with actual dollar values.
I don't necessarily have reason to doubt it -- but you can see here which teams it's coming from:
https://www.acrossthetimeline.com/wnba/attendance.html#
The Fever are certainly a huge driver, but Golden State has outdrawn them (perhaps out of new-team novelty). And the Liberty are way up year-over-year as well. Overall, if you toss out Covid, the trajectory was relatively consistent until Caitlin Clark and her generation arrived on the scene.
To that point, I have to think the widespread and massive hikes in franchise valuations and expansion fees (which I think are most telling, since they aren't just the opinion of an outlet like Forbes or Sportico, but an amount new owners are willing to spend) suggest something more than just banking on Clark's star power, even if that is a big factor in growth. I can't imagine dropping $250 million on an expansion team in Detroit on the chance to have Clark come to town a time or 2 per season. They probably believe there are more Caitlin Clarks coming down the line.
Ok, that is interesting data. Still, the overall attendance levels for the last couple decades seem quite high for a league that nobody cared about until a year ago. I still expect that there was some data massaging going on, or possibly some entity (say, the NBA) bought a lot of tickets as a matter of course. Perhaps not. Personally, as I think I've noted before, the league's level of play has gone from absolutely unwatchable to pretty entertaining, actually, over the last 20 years. The overall data doesn't really jibe with that, either.
Anyway, glad the players might get a bump.
Is there data on college women's basketball attendance? Caitlin Clark, Angel Reece, and Paige Bueckers were seemingly drawing numbers as underclassmen precipitating their explosion into the W. I agree that the turnstile numbers seem suspect but I wonder if TV ratings might be better
Hey Neil - This will be fascinating to see how it progresses, but something in the data pops out from the link you shared in the other comment string that immediately raises a data question for me.
When looking at Low attendance for Away games in 2025, 8 of the 13 teams have the exact same figure which is 3,265. I didn’t dig further but perhaps it’s ATL’s home games causing the “issue” as ATL’s Low figure for Home games happens to be 3,265.
How is it possible so many games had the exact same Low figure? Is it ticket sales vs actual turnstile attendance?
I’m not sure if that observation and question matters in the long-run, but it is peculiar and raises at least a data question.
It would also be interesting to know if the attendance figures changed in definition since the league launched and if/how it changed over the years.
I’m not here taking a side on this discussion. I’m a free market capitalist and our country has CBA rules for all industries so the market will eventually get it right….this journey will have a lot of eyes on it.