Greetings! Tuesday’s check-in comes after the jam-packed opening weekend of the NFL playoffs finally wrapped last night with a Texans win over the Steelers that was close for a while, but got out of hand at the end… and maybe marked the final career appearance of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There will be plenty of time later in the week to assess the remaining teams’ chances in the Divisional Round — but it’s safe to say that after the (mostly) razor-thin margins of the first round, things can only get more intense from here. With that in the back of our minds, here’s what else is going on in the world of sports today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
NBA:
🏀 Suns (51%) at Heat (49%)* - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Spurs (30%) at Thunder (70%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 T-Wolves (42%) at Bucks (58%) - 8 p.m.
Hockey:
🏒 Lightning (55%) at Penguins (45%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 Oilers (52%) at Predators (48%) - 8 p.m.
🏒 Maple Leafs (41%) at Mammoth (59%) - 10 p.m.
College Hoops:
🏀 Virginia (39%) at Louisville (61%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 UConn (70%) at Seton Hall (30%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Iowa State (64%) at Kansas (36%) - 9 p.m.
Soccer:
⚽ Newcastle United (36%) vs. Manchester City (41%) - 3 p.m. (Carabao Cup)
All listed times are Eastern.
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Cy Young soap opera
Since just about the very start, this MLB offseason has been defined in part by drama around the fate of two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. Skubal, generally regarded as the best pitcher in baseball, can become a free agent in 2027 and is unlikely to sign a long-term deal to remain with the Detroit Tigers, which has created a standoff between player and team in the short term as well.
The two sides failed to reach an agreement for Skubal’s 2026 contract ahead of last week’s deadline, causing his salary for the upcoming season to be determined by the MLB’s arbitration method. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently explained, this is a unique and fascinating system whereby players argue their worth using the salaries of comparable talents, and teams argue against it. (In front of each other!) The merits of each case are determined by an independent three-person panel whose decision is binding. In the case of Skubal, we know the salaries submitted to the arbitrators by both player and team, and the gap between the two — $13 million — is truly massive relative to other arbitration players this winter:
The hearing between the two sides will be held in February, and the result could forever change the norms around arbitration — a system that, as Passan noted, the league would prefer to do away with anyway. Either Skubal will receive a decent bump from his 2025 salary ($10.2 million) or he will break the MLB’s record for the highest single-season salary determined via arbitration, set by Juan Soto at $31 million in 2024.
Either way, it looks like Skubal will play out one more season in Detroit before truly hitting the open market. Kalshi has a prediction market on Skubal’s next team, resolving on March 25, and his odds of leaving Detroit for either the Mets or Dodgers spiked in mid-December, ahead of the arbitration standoff:
But no deal was struck, and now that Skubal and the Tigers have entered their dueling arbitration bids, the market seems to have gone back in the direction of the ace remaining with Detroit — at least by the start of the 2026 season. How much he makes by then, and where he goes after that? That part is anybody’s guess for now.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
The NHL’s first Soviet megastar
On Monday, the Detroit Red Wings honored arguably the most talented member of their famed “Russian Five,” lifting Sergei Fedorov’s No. 91 jersey into the rafters at Little Caesars Arena. That quintet — a group of ex-Soviet stars who came to America as the Iron Curtain was falling — helped revolutionize the sport of hockey, and Fedorov was the ultimate proof of concept with his ability to do literally everything on the ice. While other Soviets (such as Pavel “The Russian Rocket” Bure and Alexander Mogilny) had stellar years of their own in the early ’90s, Fedorov was the first player raised outside of North America to win the NHL’s MVP award — as well as the first Russian to ever produce a season with 25 or more Goals Above Replacement:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “He’s Not Coming Back Again, Is He?” by Mike Tanier
⚾ “Cubs Acquire Alex Bregman: Division Winning Coup or Waste of $175 Million?” by Matt Musico
🏈 “An Odd Theory on Justin Herbert Apologism” by Ethan Strauss
🏀 “Keyonte George’s Star Ascension And The Franchise Guard Conundrum” by Nathan Grubel
🎾 “The Glow-Up of the Glorious ‘1 Point Slam’” by Ben Rothenberg
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (1/14)
🏀 NBA: Cavs at Sixers
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Mavs
🏒 NHL: Golden Knights at Kings
🏀 MBB: Iowa at Purdue
⚽ Soccer: Chelsea vs. Arsenal (Carabao Cup)
Thursday (1/15)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Rockets
🏀 NBA: Suns at Pistons
🏀 NBA: Knicks at Warriors
🏒 NHL: Jets at Wild
🏒 NHL: Stars at Mammoth
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Golden Knights
🏀 WBB: Texas at South Carolina
🏀 WBB: Nebraska at Michigan State
🏀 WBB: Maryland at USC
⚽ Soccer: Como vs. AC Milan (Serie A)
⛳ Golf: Sony Open in Hawaii
Friday (1/16)
🏀 NBA: T-Wolves at Rockets
🏀 NBA: Cavs at Sixers
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Hurricanes
🏒 NHL: Predators at Avalanche
⛳ Golf: Sony Open in Hawaii
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.